• MO-Gov: AdImpact reports that a little-known super PAC called Stand for US PAC has dropped $3.1 million on ads to help state Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft ahead of Tuesday's Republican primary for governor, an investment that the former front-runner is hoping will help him revive his fortunes when it matters most.
Ashcroft, who is a member of one of Missouri's most prominent political families, spent months with a wide lead in the polls against his two main intraparty rivals, Lt. Gov. Mike Kehoe and state Sen. Bill Eigel. But the secretary of state has struggled to compete financially against the well-funded Kehoe, and both he and his affiliated committee had little money left when the most recent reports were finalized on July 25.
But Stand for US, which the Missouri Independent's Rudi Keller says doesn't need to disclose its donors until after the primary, is coming to the onetime favorite's rescue. In a separate piece for the site, Jeff Smith writes that this late offensive means that Ashcroft's side "for the first time [will] approach parity with Kehoe’s media buy for the final week."
Kehoe, who has the backing of termed-out Gov. Mike Parson, is still hoping that his longtime dominance of the airwaves will pay off. AdImpact says that, even with Stand for US' late intervention the lieutenant governor and his allies have outspent Ashcroft's side $11.2 million to $6.5 million, with another $4.4 million going to support Eigel.
Kehoe began airing ads against Ashcroft months ago, including a commercial depicting Chinese-speaking cows branded with a hammer and sickle accusing Ashcroft of having "testified in support of a law allowing the Chinese Communist Party to buy land here in Missouri," but he's also been attacking Eigel as of late.
Kehoe declares in a new ad that the state senator "acts like a clown" and that "President Trump told him to stop misleading voters." (Donald Trump's campaign last year told Eigel's PAC to "cease and desist" sending out fundraising emails that implied donations would go to Trump.) Kehoe, though, also used that spot to remind viewers that Ashcroft expressed skepticism that veterans should receive special benefits. Kehoe goes on to inform viewers that he has Trump's endorsement―though he doesn't mention that Ashcroft and Eigel do as well.
Smith, though, says that many ads from Kehoe's side are devoted to attacking just one opponent or the other depending on where in the state Ashcroft and Eigel are performing well. Smith explains that allies of the lieutenant governor, who has acknowledged he's not a "flame-thrower, or somebody who throws hand grenades," believe his brand of conservatism is unlikely to appeal to enough primary voters to get him anywhere close to a majority.
That's fine as long as Ashcroft, who has presented himself as an ardent abortion-rights foe, and Eigel, who has pledged to immolate books with his flamethrower, are competing for a similar bloc of voters. Kehoe, though, would be in trouble if one of his rivals collapses and the other hoovers up their supporters, so it's in his best interest to make sure this doesn't happen.
Stand for US, though, is betting that Eigel doesn't need to be taken down for Ashcroft to win. The super PAC's commercials are attacking Kehoe as part of a corrupt status quo, with the narrator proclaiming that "the Parson-Kehoe Administration is adding fuel to the fire, caving to Jefferson City lobbyists and approving legislation subsidizing health care for illegals." The commercial also touts that Ashcroft has Trump's endorsement, though unsurprisingly, it doesn't mention that the GOP's supreme master refused to pick a favorite here.
Kehoe's legal team, which is seeking to have the ad taken off the air, is arguing, "The assertion that there is a ‘Parson-Kehoe administration’ is false … All the actions referred to in the ad were solely and exclusively taken by Governor Parson and not one action was taken by Lt. Gov. Kehoe." Stand for US responded by gloating that Kehoe is trying to separate himself from his top supporter.
Eigel, for his part, generated attention last month with a racist ad where he pledged to jail and deport undocumented immigrants, much to the increasing consternation of a Latino actor tasked with translating that message into Spanish. He's since then unveiled a spot attacking Kehoe―but not Ashcroft―and his "tax-hiking, China-loving, soft-on-immigration RINO record." And wouldn't you know it, Eigel is also running a commercial that touts how he's the candidate "endorsed by Trump."
• MO-AG: Stand for US PAC is also airing ads to help appointed Attorney General Andrew Bailey fend off Trump attorney Will Scharf in Tuesday's GOP primary, and its efforts have helped the incumbent narrow what was once an intimidating financial gap. AdImpact reports that Scharf and his allies, though, have still outspent Bailey's side $9.7 million to $7 million on ads.
Every released poll has shown the attorney general ahead, though they disagree on how large his advantage is. Donald Trump, for his part, issued a dual endorsement on Wednesday.
• TN State Legislature: While wealthy donors who want to use taxpayer money to pay for private schools had a mostly successful night in Thursday's Republican legislative primaries, they were on the losing side in a key race that turned into a proxy battle between Donald Trump and Tennessee Gov. Bill Lee. Bobby Harshbarger, who is the son of U.S. Rep. Diana Harshbarger, defeated Senate Education Committee Chair Jon Lundberg 52-48. The younger Harshbarger's victory came shortly after his father, Bob Harshbarger, received a judicial summons for allegedly stealing Lundberg's signs.
Trump backed Bobby Harshbarger last month in a Truth Social post that reminded his base that "Bobby’s mother is the GREAT Congresswoman from Tennessee, Diana Harshbarger." Trump followed up on Thursday night by crowing, "I went 10 for 10 on endorsements tonight in the Great State of Tennessee, including Bobby Harshbarger, running against a strong, long-term incumbent supported by RINO Governor Bill Lee." Trump didn't elaborate on what else Lee had done to piss him off, though The Tennessean's Melissa Brown notes that the governor didn't take sides during the presidential primary.
School-voucher supporters, who deployed a total of $4.5 million across 16 GOP primaries and one Democratic contest, had more success elsewhere. The Club for Growth's School Freedom Fund and allied groups were on the winning side in 12 of these races, while Lundberg was one of the five defeated candidates they backed. These losers also include another incumbent, state Rep. John Ragan, and Democrat Dasha Lundy, who failed to unseat state Rep. Sam McKenzie.
• TX-18: Several Houston Democrats on Friday announced their campaigns to succeed the late Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee, whose funeral took place the previous day, in this safely blue seat. The new arrivals include:
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Former City Council Member Dwight Boykins
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Former City Council Member Amanda Edwards
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State Rep. Christina Morales
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City Council Member Letitia Plummer
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Former Mayor Sylvester Turner
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Harris County Democratic Party official Corisha Rogers
Another Democrat, state Rep. Jarvis Johnson, announced he was in last month.
It will be up to the leaders of the Harris County Democratic Party to replace Jackson Lee, who won the March primary by beating Edwards, on the general election ballot. The gathering has not yet been scheduled, though party head Mike Doyle has said it will likely take place on Aug. 15 or Aug. 17. It's also not clear when the candidate filing deadline will be, though a candidate forum is scheduled for Aug. 10.
The field may still expand, though one prospective candidate, state Rep. Jolanda Jones, took herself out of contention by endorsing Turner. The former mayor also has the support of Harris County Judge Lina Hidalgo, who is the county's chief executive, and Rep. Lizzie Fletcher of the nearby 7th District.
