In the excitement about MVP Harris I feel that another important goal has been lost. We’re falling for the same trap we always do in a Presidential year — we focus so heavily on the race for the highest office that we lose sight of the fact that Congress is equally as important to enact our agenda.
I’ve covered the key races in New York and California. Those states alone have enough potential to win back the House of Representatives. But what about other areas of the United States? I’m happy to take a quick look elsewhere too!
Today, I’m looking at the key races in Arizona, Nevada, and New Mexico. They constitute the Southwestern United States, and our ambitions to win the House and keep the Senate run through these states as well.
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Now that this is out of the way, let’s dive into the contests!
Arizona
Arizona Senate: Rep. Ruben Gallego
Gallego is running against the prime election denier in Krazy Kari Lake.
Rep. Ruben Gallego would be an awesome upgrade over the erratic Sen. Kyrsten Sinema. Even though MVP Harris is polling behind in this state, Gallego is ahead of his challenger Krazy Kari Lake. We’re going to have to work to retain this Senate seat regardless of what polling says. As usual, Maricopa County will decide the fate of all of our statewide candidates.
Arizona-1: Dr. Amish Shah
He just won the primary election to face election denier Rep. David Schweikert! I’m rooting for him!
Dr. Amish Shah just officially won the primary for Arizona’s 1st district late last night. He is also a former state representative for the 5th district of Arizona. Just like MVP Harris, Shah can count on the increasingly influential Indian American community to support him. The primary has depleted his coffers, so if you were to only donate to one candidate make it Dr. Amish Shah.
Arizona-2: Jonathan Nez
He has a very tough race ahead of him. Jonathan Nez could oust extremist Rep. Eli Crane!
Jonathan Nez has the tribal nations excited for his candidacy. This former President of the Navajo Nation is running a grassroots campaign in the district that covers most of Arizona. With the inclusion of Yavapai County, this district is very tough sledding. Still, we should support his effort because it will help MVP Harris win in Arizona thanks to the tribal nations!
Arizona-6: Kirsten Engel
Kirsten Engel is back for a rematch in 2024. She will defeat Rep. Juan Ciscomani this time!
This district is basically a coin-flip, as only a few hundred votes separated Biden and Trump in 2020. Kirsten Engel almost saved this district in 2022, but it did flip to the GOP. That must have galled her because she is back for a second run in 2024. She has the advantage of a Presidential electorate this time so as long as MVP Harris wins the district she has a good chance of flipping it. I’ve already written about the race for Arizona’s 6th district.
Nevada
Nevada Senate: Sen. Jacky Rosen
Sen. Jacky Rosen won during the 2018 blue wave. Nevada will be a tough state for her to win again!
Sen. Jacky Rosen took advantage of the 2018 blue wave election to upgrade from the House to the Senate. Even though MVP Harris is currently behind in polls of Nevada, Rosen has been ahead of her challenger Sam Brown. Nevada was the closest Senate race of 2022, and I expect a state creeping to the right to produce another close one in 2024.
Nevada-1: Rep. Dina Titus
Rep. Dina Titus took one for the team in 2020 redistricting. Now she sits in a vulnerable seat!
Rep. Dina Titus has been representing Nevada’s 1st district since 2012. What is different this decade is that she sits in a swing seat. While her opposition is weak again in 2024, she was held to a small win in 2022 as Nevada trends to the right. The GOP is not targeting this race this year, which gives her some more breathing room but stranger things have happened.
Nevada-3: Rep. Susie Lee
Rep. Susie Lee is the most vulnerable out of the Nevada trio. Let’s give her an assist!
Rep. Susie Lee replaced Sen. Jacky Rosen in this swing seat in 2018. As Rep. Dina Titus was given a weaker district, Rep. Susie Lee was given a stronger one this decade. She’s still not out of the woods yet even though the GOP isn’t targeting this race. She actually outperformed the lean of her district in 2022 which proves she is a strong incumbent. I’ve already written about the race for Nevada’s 3rd district.
Nevada-4: Rep. Steven Horsford
Rep. Steven Horsford usually has close elections, and this year will likely be no exception!
Rep. Steven Horsford is the chair of the Congressional Black Caucus, and he’s the incumbent for Nevada’s 4th district since 2018. He’s always had close elections in his tenure — including a surprise defeat in the 2014 red wave election. There is no doubt that he will have another close call even though the GOP isn’t targeting this race as of now.
New Mexico
New Mexico-2: Rep. Gabe Vasquez
Rep. Gabe Vasquez narrowly knocked off the previous incumbent in 2022, and faces her again!
Rep. Gabe Vasquez was given a marginally Democratic district in 2020 redistricting, but he still had to work to defeat former Rep. Yvette Herrell to get to Congress. Now, Herrell is back to reclaim this seat from Vasquez. This was one of the closest House races last cycle, and there is no doubt that it will be another close one even with Presidential turnout in 2024. I’ve already written about the race for New Mexico’s 2nd district.
Those are the serious challengers for the Southwest, plus quite a few endangered incumbents. We need to win as many of these districts as possible to have a robust majority in the House of Representatives. The region also has two key Senate races in a chamber that will be 50-50 at best. May our nominees have luck in their races!
