UPDATE: Friday, Aug 23, 2024 · 4:01:42 PM +00:00
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phranque
Update: It was pointed out in the comments that my use of the term “Sample Size” is not accurate, as it’s only 8 people and there is no guarantee of randomness. I should have just called it a small group like I did in the title.
And while assuming a 75% break for Harris may not be realistic, in 2016 I found this:
Trump won voters who decided in the last week of the campaign by a 59-30 margin in Wisconsin, 55-38 in Florida, 54-37 in Pennsylvania and 50-39 in Michigan, according to exit polls, which was enough to flip the outcome of those four states and their 75 combined electoral votes.
I just saw a video on CNN of a group of eight undecided voters in Allentown, Pennsylvania who watched Kamala Harris’ acceptance speech last night. They were asked to give her speech a grade, then asked if they have now made up their minds. I don’t know if this is a group that has been convened before that they have been checking back in with (I got the impression that it was).
It seemed like they were all middle-class, many blue collar. Several members of UAW, a couple of nurses. The grades for the speech were all A’s and B’s, with one C (you see where that one is going). The big complaint was some of them wanted more policy details, but but overall they all agreed that she “looked and sounded presidential”. They generally liked what she had to say about the middle class and the military.
One voter (the C) thinks that she’s not ready. One voter was very cynical and went into the speech not planning to vote.
The BFD to me was that after the speech 7 of the 8 made up their minds. the “C” is voting for Trump. The cynical one is still probably not voting. But the other 6 will be voting for Harris!
If 75% of all undecided voters break for Harris (and 12.5% stay home) that leaves 1 out of 8 undecideds breaking for Trump, and this will be a slam dunk. The fact that these were voters in a rust belt, blue wall state may also bode well for Michigan and Wisconsin.
Of course, this is a very small sample size, but it’s good news.
