John Avlon is no dream progressive, and that’s okay with me. For many, he’s a throwback to the 1990s and the Third Way movement in Democratic politics.
[John Avlon] is running in the Democratic primary on June 25, positioning himself as the best hope to flip this district, currently held by a first-term Republican named Nick LaLota. Avlon’s (earnest) pitch is essentially this: After years of our politics being warped by polarization and showboat extremism, it’s time for a return to something like “the third way” of the 1990s, when President Clinton was successfully triangulating (Avlon volunteered for Clinton’s campaign) and the not yet so obviously nuts Mayor Giuliani was “cleaning up” New York (Avlon worked for him as a speechwriter).
In order to recapture the House and win with MVP Harris, we need the broadest coalition possible. We need sane conservatives, Independents, and of course progressives uniting to face the threat that is former President Trump. In fact, Avlon said as much in his campaign launch video.
https://youtube.com/shorts/yFn2n-XJ7FE?feature=shared
“I believe the United States is the greatest democracy the world has ever known, but right now, our democracy is in danger,” he said in an announcement video posted today.
“We need to build the broadest possible coalition to defeat Donald Trump, defend our democracy, and win back the House from his MAGA minions who don’t even seem interested in solving problems anymore.”
If you are worried about how committed he would be to the cause of the Democrats given my headline do not fret. He hasn’t been affiliated with No Labels since 2013 when he became editor at the Daily Beast. Also, give a listen to Fast Politics by Molly Jong-Fast. John Avlon debuts at 22:00 in and discusses why he is running for Congress.
The best part? The Republicans are clearly scared of Avlon running - so much so that they attacked him right after his campaign launch in late February.
To John Avlon’s knowledge, “the National Republican Congressional Committee didn’t feel compelled to weigh in when any of the other candidates in the Democratic primary got in the race. But they did for me. And I think that’s because they’re scared.”
The race is in New York’s first congressional district, a US House seat represented by a Republican, Nick LaLota, in an area that trended towards Joe Biden in 2020 and is thus one of many Democratic targets in the state this year.
“I think they thought they were going to have a relatively easy race, maybe facing the candidate who had been defeated before. But I think when they saw me getting in the race, they recognised that changes the calculus.”
As a laugh, the NRCC is trying to paint John Avlon as some radical leftist when Avlon has made a living attacking hyperpartisanship on both sides of the aisle. In a Trump-leaning swing seat, the question for John Avlon is whether or not his centrism is enough to defeat Rep. Nick LaLota.
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Rep. Nick LaLota is part of what I am calling the #MAGADozen. These Republicans in GOP-leaning swing districts are full-throated MAGA supporters and can be beaten. John Avlon is one of the challengers I am fundraising for.
John Avlon for New York-1
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What’s the Big Idea?
THIS RACE IS LIKELY REPUBLICAN, with an R+4 PVI
This district has been a swing seat for a few decades now. Even through all of the swings, the Democratic Party held this district between 2002 and 2014 with former Rep. Tim Bishop. This is a district Al Gore won in 2000, but GW Bush narrowly won it in 2004. Obama carried the district twice narrowly. Trump easily carried the district twice under the old lines. As I said, a very swingy district!
2014 heralded a new dawn for this district, and not in a way that our party liked. Rep. Lee Zeldin knocked off former Rep. Tim Bishop by a clear majority. It was expected that this district would flip, but the margin was larger than expected. Bishop had been put on notice as his previous two races were very close. Yet he could not hold on during the 2014 red wave election.
Rep. Lee Zeldin never had a particularly close race while in Congress with the exception of the 2018 blue wave. After the 2022 court-drawn map gave him a district that Biden narrowly won in 2020, he bailed on this seat for a run for governor. Elections official Nick LaLota stepped in for him, and it was expected to be a close race.
Zeldin did better than expected in the governor’s race, and his coattails led LaLota to a 55.5% to 44.5% win over liberal-leaning Bridget Fleming. 318,995 citizens contributed to the blowout in 2022, while 375,009 voted in 2020. Not much of a dropoff in voting, meaning some people who voted for Biden may have voted for LaLota as well.
In 2024, the new map actually made this district slightly more Republican. Trump now would have won this district 50.3% to 48.5%, which may make it even more difficult to dislodge Rep. Nick LaLota. That is why John Avlon is about the strongest recruit we could hope for as he can persuade moderates and even some conservative voters to pull the lever for him. The district by registration is one-third Democratic, one-third GOP, and critically one-third Independent.
Here’s where this 1st district race will be won.
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The Hamptons: The eastern tip of Long Island is populated by some of the wealthiest and most exclusive zip codes in the US. It is important that Avlon does well in this portion of the district. Matching or surpassing Biden 2020 margins is key here.
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Stony Brook: The town and college campus are growing every year, and it is critical for Avlon to get this turn out. Failure to get a huge student vote would mean a loss, because this district is that close in elections.
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Huntington Area: This area of Long Island usually supports Democratic candidates, and Avlon is going to have to run up the score here in order to win. Trump was able to narrow the margins quite a bit, so Avlon better court those swing voters in the area to his side.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Shoreham Area: East of Stony Brook is another patch of red turf along the northern shore of Long Island. Avlon needs to contest this area as there are blue and light red precincts here, but he shouldn’t rely on the area for his winning margin.
John Avlon: The Avowed Centrist
John Avlon used to be a commentator on CNN and other cable news channels.
John Avlon was born in New York City in 1973. His grandparents were immigrants from Greece. Avlon attended Milton Academy in Massachusetts which set him up for success at both Yale and Columbia when he went to college. He is married to Margaret Hoover, a descendant of Herbert Hoover and also an anchor on PBS.
Avlon started his political career as a speechwriter for Rudy Guilliani back in his mayoral days. He was chief speechwriter by the time 9/11 happened and was also deputy director of policy. He was one of the main characters to make Guilliani “America’s mayor”.
Avlon next surfaced in 2008 by joining the Daily Beast one month after it launched. He worked his way through the editing ranks until he became chief editor in 2013. He was lauded for supporting breaking and original content for the platform. He would stay in that role until May 2018 when he jumped to CNN.
At CNN, Avlon was a senior political analyst and made frequent appearances on New Day in the morning, as well as guest hosting State of America and Reliable Sources. He also hosted a show called Reality Check online starting in 2021. This show often tracked and debunked the messages of extremist groups on the rise in America. Avlon left CNN specifically to run for this Congressional district.
Avlon is also an author specializing in writing about other crisis points in America’s history. Some of his works include Winguts: How the Lunatic Fringe is Hijacking America, Washington’s Farewell: The Founding Father’s Warning to Future Generations, and Lincoln and the FIght for Peace.
Politically, John Avlon is a centrist. He doesn’t hide that fact either. He was a co-founder of No Labels in 2010, but he disavowed the group in 2023 after it had tried to field a Presidential candidate in opposition to Biden and Trump. It was at this point where he drifted towards the Democratic Party and considered running for Congress. He had to get past liberal 2020 nominee Nancy Goroff in the primary first:
"According to Spectrum News, Avlon and Goroff differed in their strategy for the general election. Avlon said he would try to appeal to swing voters: "You need candidates who can energize people, inspire the base, but also win over independent voters and that reasonable edge of Republicans." Goroff said she would focus on boosting turnout: "We need to give voters a reason to show up. We need to give them a reason to vote for the Democrat. That means providing a real contrast with Nick LaLota.”
So what good can a centrist do for New York’s 1st congressional district? Avlon discusses the issues that matter the most to the district and himself with the MediasTouch gang below.
He also discusses the issues and some personal information in this interview with CBS News anchor Marcia Kramer.
Given his knowledge of the history of extremism in the United States, Avlon is very in tune with the need to strengthen our democracy. He supports the John Lewis VRA and the Freedom to Vote Act, but that is the tip of the iceberg. He’s serious about redistricting reform, ranked-choice voting, and even mandatory civics education in school. Above all else, he is for any means of increasing participation in the political process.
Avlon is also running on what he calls a pro-freedom and pro-rights agenda. Abortion rights are an important starting point and he would codify Roe as the law of the land. He would push a renewed effort to pass the Equal Rights Amendment and the Equality Act for LGBTQ+ citizens. He is serious about the “more perfect union” becoming a reality.
Climate change is another area where Avlon is very serious about enacting solutions. There isn’t a coastal community on Long Island that is safe from the sea level rise. Climate change mitigation and water quality protection are one of his main priorities and he’s even named a subcommittee he would like to be on if he makes it to Congress to fix these issues!
Avlon definitely has some more serious proposals on what needs to be done to fix the nation. It is a mishmash of progressive-sounding reforms and more conservative ideals. To see a full list of where he is standing on the issues, visit his campaign website. A link is provided at the top and bottom of this article.
Rep. Nick LaLota: A Loyal Foot Soldier for Trump
Rep. Nick LaLota promised to be independent, but he is just another Trump lackey in Congress.
Rep. Nick LaLota was born in Bay Shore, New York in 1978. He was accepted into the US Naval Academy and graduated in 2000. He was deployed three times during the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Once he left the Navy, he earned an MBA and a JD from Hofstra University.
Before joining Congress, LaLota was light on political experience. LaLota served as chief of staff to Suffolk County Presiding Officer Kevin McCaffrey. He also served on the Suffolk Board of Elections as well as a trustee for the village of Amityville where he lives.
LaLota is another pretend “moderate” who has been a loyal foot soldier for Trump. He joined the chorus of lawmakers blocking the bipartisan border security bill once the former President came out against it. Despite running against “Defund the Police” in 2022, LaLota has shown through his votes that funding for the police is optional.
LaLota attempted to scrub his praise for the Dobbs ruling but the internet is forever. He is just as extreme on the issue of abortion rights as any MAGA minion. Criminalizing doctors who perform the procedure and restricting abortion care for military families are just some of his abhorrent votes. Quite a record for a freshman legislator!
Another issue where LaLota claims “moderate” status but does nothing to solve the issue is gun safety. Instead, he spouts about the need to “protect ourselves” from violent criminals due to the “direct abdication of duty by Albany officials”. At least he agrees that the current gun laws need to be enforced… he just won’t pass any new gun safety legislation!
LaLota was the first of the vulnerable New York Republican members of Congress to endorse Trump. LaLota is a mere foot soldier that is too far right for the district and ought to be replaced.
How Can You Help?
John Avlon has shown impressive fundraising ability so far. His connections afford him the opportunity to rely less on grassroots donors. That doesn’t mean people shouldn’t donate to him! His coffers are a bit depleted after a contested primary election. He could use a bit of a kickstart to replenish his cash-on-hand.
New York is an expensive media market to advertise in and the television will be saturated with ads for no less than six different competitive Congressional races. The DCCC and its allies have booked $18.7M in advertising so far, while the NRCC and its allies have reserved $22.9M for the same six seats. It is unknown how much of that money will be directed at NY-01 given it is the most Republican-leaning seat out of the six being seriously contested.
If Avlon doesn’t get (or even want) outside help, he will need to count on the grassroots and their enthusiasm for volunteering to flip this district. There are plenty of opportunities to help if you live on eastern Long Island. There are canvassing efforts in the following areas: Huntington, Brookhaven, and Smithtown.
You can help anywhere in the nation if you are up to phone banking. There are times available on Mondays, Tuesdays, Wednesdays, and Thursdays. The time scheduled for these events is always 6-8PM EDT. Please help do your part to flip New York’s 1st Congressional district!
John Avlon isn’t going to light the progressive world on fire if he makes it to Congress. He is definitely going to be a centrist on many issues and even possibly a thorn in the side of (hopefully) Speaker Hakeem Jeffries in the mold of Rep. Jared Golden. Remember the motto here is “more and better Democrats”. Avlon is a MORE Democrat so that the BETTER Democrats can pass legislation. It worked from 2021-2023 in the House and it will work again if enough Democrats are elected to Congress.
Rep. Nick LaLota has tried to straddle the line between conservative and MAGA with mixed results. He definitely benefits from having a new district that Trump won in 2020, which is why most ratings aggregators rate this race “Likely Republican”. Daily Kos Elections rates this as the 36th most vulnerable GOP seat to flip, which is starting to get down there in terms of competitiveness.
Avlon has the centrist profile that fits the district. The question is whether that is enough to defeat Rep. Nick LaLota in a Trump-leaning swing seat.
John Avlon for New York-1
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Here is the Defeat the MAGA Dozen Fund on ActBlue! These 15 incumbent members of the GOP are MAGA Republicans residing in swing districts. The challengers are all strong and can win in these tougher districts. Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #MAGADozen
