On Tuesday, a SHOCKING POLL was released showing Angela Alsobrooks and former Gov. Larry Hogan TIED in the Maryland Senate race.
In a close race for the open U.S. Senate seat in Maryland, candidates Republican Larry Hogan and Democrat Angela Alsobrooks are currently tied among voters, according to an exclusive AARP poll released Tuesday.
Among voters 50-plus, former Maryland governor Hogan leads by just two percentage points, the poll found.
The candidates are seeking to replace retiring U.S. Senator Ben Cardin, a Democrat who announced in May 2023 he would not seek reelection after he completes his third term. The outcome of the race could impact the balance of power in the Senate.
Among Maryland voters 50-plus, the survey shows Hogan ahead of Alsobrooks, 47 percent to 45 percent. Among all voters, the two candidates are tied at 46 percent.
If elected, Alsobrooks would be the state’s first Black U.S. senator, and she leads by a significant margin among Black voters 50-plus, with 74 percent favoring her compared with 22 percent who say they would vote for Hogan.
Hogan was Maryland’s governor for eight years, with a term that ended in 2023. Alsobrooks, a lawyer, has served as state’s attorney for Prince George’s County.
Pollsters interviewed 1,258 likely Maryland voters about the U.S. Senate and presidential races and the issues motivating them to vote. The bipartisan polling team of Fabrizio Ward and Impact Research conducted the AARP-commissioned survey from Aug. 14 through Aug. 20.
Bob Ward, a partner with Fabrizio Ward, said the U.S. Senate race is “absolutely too close to call.”
There are some criticisms of how this poll was conducted. AARP is first and foremost looking to promote its own issues related to seniors. That led them to make some questionable methodological choices in the poll.
The pollsters also oversampled senior voters and Black voters in Maryland, two critical voting blocs. Eighty-seven percent of voters in Maryland over the age of 50 said their motivation to vote is a 10-out-of-10, compared with only 70% of voters 18-49 who have the same level of enthusiasm. In the 2022 midterm elections, 50+ voters made up 62% of the Maryland electorate.
“What we’ve learned is that candidates in Maryland ought to be paying attention to the concerns of older voters,” said Hank Greenberg, AARP’s Maryland director.
It is better to err on the side of caution and treat this as a race we could lose instead of saying the fundamentals of the state make it impossible for Hogan to win. He’s done it before, and if this poll is right he has a chance to do it again.
The question for Maryland voters is whether or not they can see through the “moderate” mask of their former governor in time for the November election.
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Angela Alsobrooks for MD-SEN
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What’s the Big Idea?
2014 MD-GOV results. Hogan needs this map to win.
THIS STATE IS LIKELY DEMOCRATIC, with a D+14 PVI
Maryland hasn’t elected a Republican Senator since 1980. That’s right, 1980. This race shouldn’t even be competitive because Maryland is one of the bluest states in the nation. Yet here we are, talking about a state that hasn’t voted for a GOP candidate for President since 1988. Trump isn’t going to win the state in 2024 either.
The last semi-close race for this Senate seat happened in 2006 of all years. Sen. Paul Sarbanes retired and Rep. Ben Cardin won the crowded primary election to replace him. Cardin faced off against Lt. Gov Michael Steele. Steele cut into the Black base of the party significantly, but it wasn’t enough to win. Despite polling suggesting a close race, Cardin won by a 10-point margin 54%-44%.
It is the gubernatorial races that can lean Republican in this state as the voters seek a check on the overwhelmingly Democratic state legislature. In 2014, Larry Hogan used the red wave election to win 51%-47% over Lt. Gov. Anthony Brown and become governor of the state. He was a popular governor as evidenced by his blowout win during the blue wave of 2018. He won election against NAACP head Ben Jealous 55%-43%.
2.2M votes were cast in 2018 for Senate, 3.04M votes were cast in the 2020 race for President, and 2M votes were cast in the 2022 Senate race. All three elections were won by Democrats with about 65% of the vote, which shows how impressive a win for former Gov. Hogan would be if he pulled it off.
Here’s where this Maryland race will be won.
- Washington, D.C. Suburbs: Prince George’s County, Charles County, and Montgomery County are overwhelmingly blue counties and they are the Black base of Angela Alsobrooks. Hogan will need to eat away at the margins in these counties to win and Alsobrooks cannot allow that to happen. MVP Harris will win these counties in a landslide so the goal is to prevent crossovers.
- Baltimore City and County: This city is also majority Black and it will vote for Alsobrooks in a landslide. How big that landslide is will determine who wins this Senate race. Baltimore County is suburban and will be a swing county for this race. Alsobrooks cannot allow Hogan to win any of the voters who are also voting for MVP Harris.
- Frederick, Annapolis, and Howard County: These are the critical counties in the Senate race because they are the swing counties. MVP Harris will win these counties but Hogan has a shot of carrying each one. If that happens despite the demographic changes since 2014, Alsobrooks will be in for a world of hurt.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down. or we lose.
- Maryland Panhandle: The panhandle of Maryland is a part of Appalachia and that means Democrats are now anathema there. Luckily for us, this portion of the state is underpopulated and also possibly thinks of Hogan as a RINO. Still, they will pull the lever for Trump and Hogan will still net a ton of votes here.
- Eastern Shore: The Republicans in this portion of the state tended to be more moderate until recently. They will come out strongly for former Gov. Hogan except for select pockets of strength for Alsobrooks in the cities. Again, this area doesn’t have enough population for a whole Congressional district but what is there is not friendly to Democrats.
- Southern Maryland: St. Mary’s County and Calvert county are more rural counties to the south of Annapolis. St. Mary’s County voted for Trump by a 55-42 margin and will come out strongly for Hogan. Calvert County went by a narrower 52-46 margin for Trump so Alsobrooks needs to limit the damage these counties can cause her campaign.
Angela Alsobrooks: An Ally of MVP Harris
Angela Alsobrooks has a stellar resume — but Black women have to work much harder to get as far as mediocre white candidates.
Angela Alsobrooks was born in 1971 in Prince George’s County, Maryland. Her parents were not wealthy and the family moved from South Carolina after the police shot and killed Alsobrooks’ great-grandfather in 1956. Alsobrooks was diagnosed with ADHD at age 8. This resulted in her attending youth theater programs at Howard University.
Alsobrooks attended Duke University and earned a degree in public policy. While in college, Alsobrooks joined the Delta Sigma Theta sorority - one of the Divine Nine. She would later earn a JD degree from the University of Maryland and pass the Maryland Bar Exam.
Alsobrooks clerked for law firms DLA Piper and DeCaro, Doran, and for Circuit Court Judges William D. Quarles, Jr.. and Donna Hill Staton until 1997. She would then join the State’s Attorney office in Prince George’s County and become an assistant specializing in domestic violence cases. Eventually, she would leave that post and join the Country Executive office as education liaison. Alsobrooks became executive director of the county revenue authority in 2003.
Alsobrooks got her start in politics early by becoming president of the student council of her high school. She would go on to intern for D.C. Delegate Eleanor Holmes Norton and the Congressional Black Caucus. She attended the 1992 Democratic National Convention and then volunteered for the Bill Clinton campaign. She would also volunteer for the Al Gore campaign in 2000. She ran to be a delegate at the 2008 Democratic National Convention and was pledged to support Hillary Clinton. She would later endorse Barack Obama. Alsobrooks was once again a pledged delegate for Clinton in 2016.
MVP Harris entered the picture when Angela Alsobrooks would run for elected office the first time in 2010. Alsobrooks was inspired to run by reading a magazine article about MVP Harris in her San Francisco prosecutorial days. She also credits Harris’ book Smart on Crime for prompting her to run. Harris supported Alsobrooks in all of her runs for office.
Alsobrooks won the race for Prince George’s State Attorney in 2010 and was re-elected in 2014. She took a tough-on-crime mindset to the office and that led to a 50% decrease in violent crimes during her tenure. At the same time, she worked with MVP Harris to implement a program to reduce recidivism mirroring the one in California.
Alsobrooks would next turn her attention to the Prince George’s County Executive race in 2018. She ran on a platform espousing an increase in education funding, expanding the tax base, and improving public safety by hiring more police officers. She would run without opposition both in 2018 (once she decisively won the primary) and 2022. She became the first woman to lead the county and first Black woman in the state to lead a county.
Alsobrooks, once elected to this office, became a leading Democrat in the state of Maryland. She reciprocated the support of MVP Harris by endorsing her fledgling Presidential run in 2019. She would later switch to support President Biden and was once again a pledged delegate for him to the 2020 DNC. Gov. Wes Moore credits her endorsement of him in 2022 as "the most vital endorsement" of his campaign.
Her ascendancy to the Democratic nomination for the Senate seat in 2024 was not guaranteed. Rep. David Trone, the founder of Total Wine & More, spent over $61M to rival her for the nomination. He was elected to Maryland’s 6th district in 2018. Despite trailing in polling and fundraising, the Alsobrooks campaign never panicked. Once voters tuned in, she ran a blitz of ads introducing herself and touting her achievements in office. This led to a surge that polls failed to pick up and led to a comfortable win in the end. Alsobrooks was given a prominent speaking role at the Democratic National Convention in which she highlighted her close ties to MVP Harris.
Ballotpedia stated Alsobrooks would include creating economic opportunities, building transportation and technology infrastructure, and protecting abortion access. Alsobrooks said her life experiences would inform her work in the Senate: "I understand the struggles of hard-working families because I grew up in one. How we solve a lot of these issues is borne directly from my personal experience of watching people work hard to make things happen for their families."
Alsobrooks would also be a strong voice on gun safety, immigration reform, Social Security protection by raising the cap, protecting democracy, and much more. She would also push for the fight for a universal basic income and universal health care coverage. To get a closer look at her priorities if elected, click on the “campaign website” link at the bottom or top of this article.
Larry Hogan: Enabler of MAGA
If polling is correct, Hogan could be the 51st vote for the GOP in the Senate. Expect that to be pointed out.
Larry Hogan, Jr. was born in Washington, D.C. in 1956 and is the son of three-term Maryland Congressman Larry Hogan, Sr. When his parents divorced in 1972, he lived with his mother in Florida. Hogan attended Florida State University and graduated with a bachelor’s in government and political science in 1978.
Hogan got his start in politics early, helping with citizen referendums and political campaigns. He worked for politicians in the Florida state legislature while in college and worked on Capitol Hill in D.C. after he graduated. Hogan would help his father make a political comeback in 1978 where the elder Hogan would win a race for Prince George’s County executive.
Hogan first ran for political office in a 1981 special election for the seat his father once held. He lost the primary election handily that year. He would run again in 1992 and hold Rep. Steny Hoyer to the closest race of his political career - a 53%-44% loss. In between, Hogan would create Hogan Companies, which is a brokerage, consulting, investment and development of land, commercial and residential properties. He would return to the business after his 1992 defeat as well. Hogan next surfaced to serve in Republican Gov. Bob Ehrlich’s government. He was in charge of appointing people during the four years Ehrlich was in charge of Maryland.
Hogan would go on to found Change Maryland in 2011 after Ehrlich was defeated a second time. This anti-tax organization was used by Hogan to sharply criticize the next government of Maryland headed by Democratic Gov. Martin O’Malley. Eventually, the Hogan for Governor campaign bought the assets of Change Maryland, leading Democrats to accuse Hogan of improperly received benefits from the nonprofit.
Hogan ran for governor in 2014 much the same way he is running for Senator in 2024: by ducking and ignoring social issues while emphasizing economic and tax issues. He had to deal with a supermajority in the Maryland legislature which allowed him to play the “moderate” by allowing bills he didn’t support to become law by overriding his veto or without his signature.
Let’s cut to the chase - it will be difficult to attack Hogan on his record and his “moderate” persona. Alsobrooks could target him for what he vetoed while governor of Maryland. Many of these vetoes were overridden by the state legislature, which may make it difficult to make voters understand how Hogan is against these policies.
He vetoed increasing the minimum wage. He also vetoed paid family and sick leave. Increased funding to train abortion providers was also vetoed. Hogan shot down an educational plan that sought to reduce inequities in the state. He vetoed enhanced background checks for guns. He also rejected a bill to fix unsigned ballots and to restore voting rights to former felons. He killed the Red Line light rail system in Baltimore. He may play the “moderate”, but his record betrays him.
Alsobrooks definitely needs to target him for being a MAGA enabler. He could be the 51st vote for the GOP Majority Leader which could range from Sen. Rick Scott to Sen. John Thune. Tying him to who controls the Senate is the most likely way to defeat him. Alsobrooks can also go after him for being endorsed by Trump, but it would be difficult since Hogan repudiated the endorsement and further claimed he would not vote for Trump.
Hogan also is being duplicitous when it comes to how much of Trump’s agenda he supports. In a speech to the Republican Jewish Coalition in November 2022, Hogan praised Trump for passing the Trump Tax Scam. He also praised Trump’s appointments to the US Supreme Court - even after the heinous Dobbs decision. Furthermore, Trump’s energy policy was lauded for increasing domestic production. Hogan tried to whitewash these comments with a weak explanation when they came out this month.
Hogan may be a “moderate” when it comes to social issues but his vote will only be for us when the vote doesn’t matter. He will be the male version of Sen. Susan Collins if elected to the Senate. Don’t be fooled, Maryland. You will be enabling MAGA by voting for him.
How Can You Help?
Right now, Angela Alsobrooks needs donations to match an onslaught of political advertisements directed against her. She actually is at funding parity with Hogan — it’s the outside players that are making it seem lopsided against her.
But the Hogan campaign said the report for the Hogan for Maryland account with the FEC, represents only a part of the money he has raised. When donations from affiliated accounts, the Hogan Victory Fund and the Better Path Forward political action committee, are included, Hogan’s total raised is more than $10 million, his campaign claims.
Heavily Democratic Maryland is not typically on the national map in terms of Senate races – voters here last elected a Republican to the Senate in 1980. But Republicans just one seat away from taking control of the Senate and Hogan was elected governor twice here and was highly popular when he stepped down last year. That has made Maryland a target for both national parties.
We cannot afford to take any chances on this race — help Angela Alsobrooks out today by donating!
Another way to help is to get in the trenches and persuade people to vote for Alsobrooks via phone banking. There are plenty of Democrats who seemingly cannot quit the former governor of their state, and we need to persuade as many of them as possible what is at stake with their vote. This is a virtual event so anyone can help the campaign out!
As with any statewide race, there are numerous opportunities for canvassing and door-knocking. I’m linking to the Alsobrooks Mobilize page because there are so many different opportunities available. Some critical areas include Frederick, Gaithersburg, Howard County, Baltimore County, and the other swing areas as identified above. If you live in the D.C. area and want to help out this is your opportunity to make a difference in a down ballot race!
This is a reminder that polling suggested Angela Alsobrooks was in a dead heat with rich Rep. David Trone and that race turned out to be a clear Alsobrooks win. I suspect something similar will be at play in this race once the campaign has enough funds to go on the attack. Similar dynamics are happening with Hogan dominating the airwaves early and Alsobrooks responding late. However, there is also this factor as the poll in the opener states:
“Given Hogan’s support among Democrats, and the number of voters who still don’t have a firm opinion of who Angela Alsobrooks is, she has more upside potential in the race,” [polling director] Ward said. “It would not be a surprise to see most of the undecided [voters] in this race break to Alsobrooks by the time Election Day comes.”
This is a race where MVP Harris or Barack Obama or Gov. Wes Moore cutting an ad in support of Alsobrooks would make a difference. MVP Harris and Biden have already campaigned for Alsobrooks in a small capacity and there may be a need for more widely known Democrats making appearances with her.
Do NOT underestimate former Gov. Larry Hogan. There are plenty of voters that pine for the myth of the “moderate” Republican as evidenced by Maine continuing to elect Sen. Susan Collins. Hogan will only be there for us when his vote isn’t needed — just like Collins. This is now the 11th most likely race to flip in my estimation. It will take something special for Hogan to win but a path to victory is there.
The question for Maryland voters is whether or not they can see through the “moderate” mask of their former governor in time for the November election.
Angela Alsobrooks for MD-SEN
Campaign Website | Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | Threads | DONATE | Volunteer
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