You don’t need to look at any poll to know that Donald Trump is losing the election. All you need to know is that he’s suddenly proposing socialistic federally funded IVF treatments and essentially said he’s voting pro-choice for Florida’s pro-abortion ballot initiative.
First, let’s start with that socialism.
"I am announcing today that under the Trump administration, your government will pay for or your insurance company will be mandated to pay for all costs associated with IVF treatment," Trump announced at a rally in Potterville, Michigan, on Thursday.
But that wasn’t the only time he said it.
"We are going to be, under the Trump administration, we are going to be paying for that treatment," Trump promised backstage in an interview with NBC News’ Dasha Burns before the rally "We're going to be mandating that the insurance company pay."
So is the federal government going to pay for it, or will it be mandated—who knows? Trump certainly doesn’t. But it marks a significant shift for the leader of the party that blocked a vote on IVF in the Senate as recently as June 13.
Democrats should absolutely drive a wedge between Trump and his party by scheduling a new IVF vote next week. Sen. Tammy Duckworth’s Right to IVF Act bill is already ready to go
An even more shocking moment from Trump’s NBC interview, however, was the moment where Trump said of Florida’s restrictive abortion law, “I think the six weeks is too short, there has to be more time. I’ve told them I want more weeks.” Pressed on whether he’ll vote for the state’s November ballot initiative, he said, “I’m going to be voting that we need more than six weeks.” The amendment sets the limit at “fetal viability,” same as Roe v. Wade did.
Anti-abortion activists have already been feigning unease, but before Trump’s bombshell Thursday, it seemed performative, merely helping to give Trump cover for a catastrophically unpopular position that is an anchor wrapped around his neck, dragging him and his entire party down. But Trump’s actions Thursday go much further than what was previously more akin to “strategic ambiguity.” Trump essentially endorsed Roe.
It’s not performative, and conservatives are beside themselves.
“Republicans have nominated a pro-choice, pro-Obamacare candidate,” tweeted National Review editor Phillip Klein Thursday night. “This is what happens when the only metric to primary voters is, ‘Who has been indicted more by the deep state?’"
Fellow National Review editor Ramesh Ponnuru tweeted, “He's about two weeks from endorsing taxpayer funding for abortion.”
Conservative writer Daniel Darling tweeted, “Awful. ‘Leave it to the states’ is now ‘criticize the states when they actually pass abortion restrictions.’”
The policy director of the conservative, Mike Pence-founded Advancing American Freedom pointed to a threat he’d made earlier, when Republicans failed to include robust anti-abortion language in their party platform: “There will be a revolt.”
“If Donald Trump loses, today is the day he lost,” wrote radio host Erick Erickson. “The committed pro-life community could turn a blind eye, in part, to national abortion issues. But for Trump to weigh in on Florida as he did will be a bridge too far for too many.”
As important as any pundit, Trump faces fire from key evangelical leaders like Albert Mohler, president of the Southern Baptist Theological Seminary in Louisville, Kentucky.
Former President Trump now appears determined to undermine his prolife supporters. His criticism of Florida abortion restrictions & his call for government funding of IVF & his recent statement about “reproductive rights” seem almost calculated to alienate prolife voters.
This election is shaping up as a catastrophe for the pro-life movement in America. There are still 67 days until Election Day in America. That means former President Trump had better count the cost of abandoning pro-life voters—quickly. That cost is going to be very high.
Pro-life Christian voters are going to have to think clearly, honestly, and soberly about our challenge in this election—starting at the top of the ticket. We must also work for the election and retention of pro-life candidates in Congress.
The discontent, hurt, and anger in the anti-abortion movement runs deep.
“Totally devastating,” tweeted LiveAction president Lila Rose to her 360,000 followers. “President Trump just announced he will vote in support of Amendment 4 in Florida, which permits abortions on babies up until birth, without restriction. Pro-Life America, speak now!!” Again, Amendment 4 protects the right to an abortion until fetal viability, not “up until birth.”
And these are just the early reactions. The din will become a roar as news spreads through every corner of the evangelical movement that Republicans cannot win without.
Trump is in a tough place now: He can’t backtrack without admitting he was wrong, nor would he be able to easily rebuild trust with evangelical anti-abortion voters even if he did. Yet he can’t move forward as a pro-choice champion without further angering and alienating the most committed foot soldiers of the conservative movement.
And he did it all for what? Is there a single pro-choice voter who is going to trust Trump on abortion and choose him over Vice President Kamala Harris? He gains zero by trying to pander to a pro-choice constituency that’s long lost.
This is just more evidence that Trump’s instincts have abandoned him. He’s lazy, disgruntled, boring, and lost. He expected to golf his way back into the White House after defeating President Joe Biden. Those days are long gone. The 2016 version of Trump would be focused on entertaining and hyping his bigoted crowds, not putting them to sleep with incoherent personal grievances. The 2016 version of Trump wouldn’t so clumsily shit on the one-third of the electorate who believes very strongly that abortion should be illegal or nearly so. (In fact, that version picked pious then-Indiana Gov. Pence precisely to make sure evangelicals fell in line.)
My prediction? Trump lashes out at his evangelical base the same way he reacted when Libertarians booed him at their convention in May, testily snapping back, “maybe you don’t want to win.” It will go over as well as it did with that Libertarian crowd. Maybe worse, since anti-abortion zealots actually believe that life begins at conception.
Imagine someone saying, “it’s fine to murder children until they are 10!” You wouldn’t tolerate someone saying “let me murder young children to win an election!” You don’t compromise on murder.
Trump is in full-on implosion mode. The polls have been looking gaudy this week in the midst of Harris’ convention bounce. Don’t expect them to come back down next week, or ever.
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