This is the district in New Jersey that most closely mirrors national trends. All eyes should be on New Jersey’s 7th district as an early barometer of how the 2024 election for the House of Representatives will go.
Ashley Koning, director of the Eagleton Center for Public Interest Polling, based at Rutgers University, New Brunswick, said the political landscape in the 7th District mirrors the political landscape nationwide.
“It really is a reflection of national trends,” Koning said in an interview with NJ Spotlight News.
Former Rep. Tom Malinowski, a Democrat, flipped the seat from GOP control in the 2018 midterm election and was reelected in 2020. But Kean won the seat in 2022, after it was redrawn to include more likely Republican voters.
Under the previous map, about 13,000 more Democrats than Republicans lived in the district. After redistricting, roughly 17,000 more Republicans live there. Leonard Lance, like Kean a Republican who served a lengthy term as a state lawmaker before being elected to the House, held the seat for a decade before Malinowski.
“Are we going to see it remain in Kean’s hands or are we going to see it turn back?” Koning asked. “This is definitely one of those purple areas in New Jersey.”
We are contesting this district with Working Families Alliance head Sue Altman, who has become a political force in New Jersey politics in the last few years.
SOLOMON: Altman is an outspoken critic of the Democratic Party boss in South Jersey, George Norcross. She made headlines in 2019 when she was forcibly removed from a hearing at the state Capitol where he was about to speak. At the rally, Altman told NPR she doesn't think it's a problem that the Republican Party describes her as too liberal for this district.
ALTMAN: I'm not sure the narrative right now is so much left, right or moderate, progressive. I actually think it's about bigger issues. It's about democracy and fighting for New Jersey. And so my entire career, I fought against both parties. I fought against corrupt Democrats, and I fought against people like Chris Christie who are cutting money to schools.
SOLOMON: It's a very different playbook from Democrats who successfully flipped Republican seats in the last few elections nationwide. In 2018, that included at least nine moderate Democrats with a military or intel background. But Mike Smith of the House Majority PAC, which works to get Democrats elected, says that while Altman is to the left of those candidates, she's able to connect with voters in a way that transcends party lines.
This seems like an odd choice of challenger for a wealthy suburban district, but Altman is winning over skeptics one conversation at a time.
When Democrats talk about what draws them to Altman, they often describe her as someone “smart,” who simply puts in the work to win their votes.
“When I went to hear her speak, I was thinking, ‘We’re not going to win this one with a Working Families person,’” said Sharon Glover, a homemaker from Tewksbury, who attended the county convention as a delegate. “But once I heard her speak, I’m like, she’s really smart. She really understands our community. She wants to listen and we don’t always get that.”
That appeal extends to moderate voters like Jordan Glatt, a university administrator who previously ran a successful consumer goods manufacturer and served as mayor of Summit. Glatt told HuffPost that he identifies as a “conservative Democrat,” because of his fiscal conservatism and social liberalism. He was supporting New Jersey first lady Tammy Murphy, the establishment choice in the U.S. Senate primary, before she dropped out in March.
He gravitated to Altman because “she went and took on the political bosses. She wasn’t partisan about who she spoke out against,” he said. “When she saw a wrong in South Jersey, she spoke up.”
The question is whether Sue Altman can win over enough of those types of voters to get to Congress.
Like reading election-themed articles? I am continuing a massive series of them each Sunday and Wednesday morning! Make sure to follow #SaveTheMajority and the group Save the Majority so you don’t miss important races down the ballot!
Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. is part of what I am calling the #Beatable16. The Good News Roundup team is fundraising for the Democrats running for the 16 House districts Biden won in 2020 and the Republicans won in 2022.
DONATE TO THE BEATABLE16 FUND IN ORDER TO DEFEAT THE #BEATABLE16!
Sue Altman for New Jersey-7
Campaign Website | Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | DONATE | Volunteer
What’s the Big Idea?
County results for NJ-07 in 2022.
THIS DISTRICT LEANS REPUBLICAN, with an R+1 PVI
This district has traditionally been a staunchly Republican district down the ballot. This is despite it being a swing seat that has been won by both parties in the Presidential race in recent decades. Gore won the district in 2000, but Republicans shored it up to a district GW Bush won in 2004. Obama narrowly carried the district in 2008, but it was shored up again such that Romney won it in 2012. However, Clinton narrowly carried it in 2016, and Biden did much better in 2020 under the old lines.
The Republicans in the district tend to be “moderates” within the context of the Republican caucus. This includes Rep. Leonard Lance, who held the district between 2009 and 2019. He won a dicey first election while Obama won the district, but he wasn’t effectively challenged again until he lost in 2018. That’s when the backlash to Trump struck and many districts like this one revolted against him.
Rep. Tom Malinowski was the first Democratic incumbent to represent this area of New Jersey in a very long time. He barely hung on in 2020 despite Biden increasing the margins of the old district to 54-44. Tom Kean, Jr. is a respected name in New Jersey politics and he was able to keep the race very close.
2020 redistricting weakened the district to one that Biden won 51.1% to 47.3%. It was this subtle shift and a stock scandal that doomed Malinowski in 2022. Even with these disadvantages the race was close — Tom Kean, Jr. won this race 51.4% to 48.6%, or a margin of about 8500 votes.
Altman will definitely keep it close this year, but her chances will depend on how well MVP Harris does with wealthy white suburbanites. There were 433,947 voters in the district in 2020, and 310,093 in 2022. Altman hopes that the missing voters are Democratic-leaning.
Here’s where this 7th district race will be won.
- Union County: Not all of this county is included in the district, but the portions of the county that are included are deep blue (except for the city of Clark). Altman will have to run up the score here to offset other portions of the district that aren’t as favorable. Failure to beat the Biden margins from 2020 will lead to trouble, because Kean will do better in other parts of the district.
- Somerset County: This county isn’t fully included in the district, but it is the swing portion of the district. Altman will have her work cut out for her in this section, as Tom Kean, Jr. represented much of this area in the New Jersey Senate before making it to Congress. Altman has to at least match the Biden margins from 2020 here to have a chance of winning.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Hunterdon County and Morris County: These counties are wealthy, and they are rapidly trending our way (at least they voted for Trump by very narrow margins compared to the usual). They will likely vote for Tom Kean, Jr. by margins bigger than what Altman can accept, which is why she has to run up the score elsewhere. Either that or she matches the Biden margins from 2020 here to win.
- Warren County and Sussex County: These areas are blood red, and their inclusion in the district is ultimately what could keep Kean in Congress. Kean is likely to clean up in these counties, and by a bigger margin than Trump will win by. Altman better pray that turnout here is less than elsewhere, or otherwise she will be in for a world of hurt when these counties report their votes.
Sue Altman: Anti-Corruption Fighter
Sue Altman pushes for progressive outcomes. She protested frequently outside Rep. Gottheimer’s office.
Sue Altman was born in Clinton, New Jersey and played basketball in high school. This led her to Columbia University where she was the star of the team. She would play abroad in Ireland long enough to earn two graduate degrees from Oxford University in International Relations and Business.
Altman would return to Camden, New Jersey to teach in the public schools while coaching basketball. She led two different teams to the state championships while a teacher. But she first made a nuisance of herself politically by standing up to GOP Gov. Chris Christie on the savage cuts to public school funding he was proposing. No doubt that this experience awakened her politically and it shows that she will be strong on educational issues.
Altman would go on to run the Working Families Alliance and make pointed political stands against the business as usual New Jersey corruption from both political parties. She was thrown out of a legislative hearing for protesting the corrupt South Jersey political boss George Norcross. Altman wasn’t afraid of taking on Sen. Menendez when the indictment came down either. She is making corruption one of her signature issues in her campaign for Congress.
Sue Altman is also strong on protecting democracy. She and future Sen. Andy Kim led the charge to eliminate the corrupt party line feature in Democratic primaries which almost always help the party machines that function as gatekeepers in New Jersey politics.
“New Jersey is nicknamed the Soprano state, and it’s for a good reason,” said Sue Altman, a Democrat running for Congress in the 7th District who led the New Jersey Working Families Alliance and has clashed with party power brokers.
“It would make the campaign much easier and much more straightforward if we could stand up tall and proud and say, ‘Yes, at every level Democrats are the party of democracy and have the receipts to back that up,’” Altman later added. “But right now in New Jersey that’s difficult to do.”
Altman will be a strong progressive in Congress based on her track record. For her stances on other issues, visit her campaign website here.
Rep. Tom Kean, Jr.: Another Fake Moderate
The Kean name is golden in New Jersey politics. Unlike his daddy, Tom Kean, Jr. is no moderate.
Thomas Kean, Jr. was born in 1968 to a well-connected and historic family in New Jersey politics. His illustrious pedigree most recently includes his father who was governor of New Jersey from 1982 to 1990. He went to Dartmouth for his secondary education, but left before he could complete his PhD at Tufts University.
Kean knew that politics was the career he wanted early on. He was appointed to a New Jersey State Assembly seat in 2001 and quickly won a full term in his own right. He was elevated to the New Jersey State Senate in 2003 and rose to Minority Leader by 2008. He challenged Sen. “Gold Bars” Menendez in 2006 and held him to a 9-point win amidst the blue wave.
Eventually, Kean would challenge for New Jersey’s 7th district in both 2020 and 2022 and win the latter contest. He attacked the stock trades of incumbent Rep. Malinowski to win, which is rather hypocritical considering he has some stock trade skeletons in his closet as well. Sue Altman is already lambasting the incumbent on this issue.
Another issue where Kean is talking out of both sides of his mouth is abortion. He claims to be “pro-choice”, but his votes in Congress haven’t shown the slightest hint of moderation on that issue. He voted to criminalize doctors and chip away at reproductive health. He freaked out after the IVF decision by the Alabama Supreme Court but still voted against protections for the procedure. Classic case of a politician trying to have it both ways.
Kean knows he isn’t the moderate he claims to be which is why he refuses so many interview requests and does not make public appearances. He’d rather hide in elevators or allow Speaker Mike Johnson make statements for him. He endorses convicted felon Donald Trump. Kean is not a leader in Congress but instead is a follower of the most extreme elements of his party.
New Jersey’s 7th district deserves someone who will be forthright and honest about where they stand - that person isn’t Rep. Tom Kean, Jr.
How Can You Help?
This is possibly the most expensive Congressional district in America to advertise in. This is because it is included in the pricey New York City media market. To make matters worse, there are plenty of other races fighting for the same limited advertising dollars making things even more expensive.
Even so, some of the $18.5M for the Democrats and combined $22.9M earmarked for the GOP will be spent on this race. Add in the robust totals that both Sue Altman and Rep. Tom Kean, Jr. have raised and this will quickly turn into one of the most expensive races of the 2024 election cycle.
Democrat Sue Altman raised a mammoth $1.65 million in the second quarter of 2024 and now has more than $2.2 million cash-on-hand for her bid to unseat freshman Rep. Thomas Kean, Jr. (R-Westfield) in New Jersey’s 7th district.
Altman has raised over $3 million since joining the race in May 2023 without accepting corporate PAC money. She has over 15,000 unique contributors, her campaign told the New Jersey Globe.
The 7th district race is considered among the most competitive House races in the nation and viewed by both parties as pivotal in determining control next year.
That’s why adding Sue Altman to Red to Blue was such a critical step in unleashing her fundraising.
There are many opportunities to volunteer for Sue Altman if you live in New Jersey. Today, there is a canvassing operation in Somerset County from 12-3pm. Tomorrow, the Tour to Save Democracy will be hosting a rally with future Sen. Andy Kim from 7-9PM. There are three different canvassing operations in Union County happening over the next few weekends as well. It seems that Altman has all of her bases covered. For those of you that aren’t in New Jersey, do know that the Altman campaign has virtual phone banks every Tuesday from 6-8PM.
Certainly as the campaign heats up there will be more opportunities to volunteer for Altman. Bookmark the Volunteer link at the top or bottom of this article if you are interested in helping her campaign for NJ-07!
Sue Altman is definitely the slight underdog in this race given the fact that she will be tarred as too progressive for this district. Her track record of standing up against both political parties in New Jersey is a serious strength and she needs to run on that. She’s broken ranks with her allies on some issues now that she is a candidate for Congress, but it remains to be seen whether that will be enough of a pivot away from her past.
Tom Kean, Jr. will once again play the “moderate” role in advertisements and in rhetoric. His record does not match what he claims to be and Altman will gleefully point that out to the voters. We do have a serious chance here, with Daily Kos rating it tied for the 16th most vulnerable GOP district this year.
The question will be whether wealthy suburbanite voters will elect a Working Families Alliance head as their next member of Congress.
Sue Altman for New Jersey-7
Campaign Website | Facebook | Twitter | Instagram | DONATE | Volunteer
Let's take back the House by targeting the 16 districts that Biden won in 2020 that have R reps! That brings us to the Beatable16 Fund! Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #Beatable16
