Sometimes, a bitterly contested primary helps the winner out. Rudy Salas was on a glide path for renomination in the 22nd district of California having announced early on in 2023. However, State Sen, Melissa Hurtado also announced her candidacy for this seat. The DCCC pulled out all of the stops to make sure that Salas advanced in the Top 2 primary.
Democrats in Washington have funneled more than $100,000 to a Central Valley candidate challenging GOP Rep. David Valadao to avoid getting locked out of one of their best pickup opportunities in the nation.
The institutional giving underscores the national party’s unusually early involvement in the race — choosing to boost former state lawmaker Rudy Salas over fellow Democrat Melissa Hurtado even as it sits out other competitive primaries.
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With California’s jungle primary system, where the top two candidates regardless of party will advance after Super Tuesday, Hurtado’s presence on the ballot means she could siphon enough votes from Salas in the Republican-leaning primary to land him in third place after Valadao and his Republican challenger.
That has prompted the massive, last-minute mobilization from national Democrats, who in addition to pouring money into Salas’ coffers, have spent more than $2 million on advertising to boost his campaign.
Salas wound up advancing in the primary to face Rep. David Valadao in the fall.
The intervention focused on building a campaign infrastructure, a ground game built for an area with very poor turnout. Len’s Political Notes puts the turnout problems in the Central Valley this way:
The incumbent Republican, David Valadao was first elected to Congress in 2012. He has been helped by low turnout in the district. Consider the numbers. In some congressional districts, in a presidential year with a tough Congressional contest, as many as 400,000 people might vote. In 2012, a Presidential year, Valadao won by 18,000 votes in a contest in which 116,000 people voted.
David Valadao won by roughly the same number of votes in 2014. Only 80,000 people voted that year. In 2016, a Presidential year, shockingly, only 70,000 people voted. David Valadao continued winning by about 18,000 votes.
Some of Valadao’s races have been closer. In 2018, a strong mid-term, non-Presidential year, more than 110,000 people voted. David Valadao defeated TJ Cox by less than 1,000 votes. Cox ran against David Valadao again in 2020, a presidential election year. 170,000 turned out to vote (not the 400,000 that a different district might attract to the voting booths, but a much better number than the past). David Valadao won again – this time by 1,500 votes.
In 2022, 10 years after David Valadao was first elected, Assemblyman Rudy Salas was David Valadao’s opponent. Just over 100,000 people voted. David Valadao was elected by 3,132 votes.
If Rudy Salas can solve the problems with participation in the Central Valley, he can win this district over. Too many in the Democratic Party assume demographics is destiny, and take for granted Black and Latino votes. The choice for these voters isn’t Democratic v. GOP… it is often Democratic v. “sit on the couch”.
Voting groups are hoping to engage voters of color, who have historically tended to lean Democratic in California, although recent trends have indicated that Latino voters who are upset with politics in Sacramento and Washington D.C. are gravitating toward the GOP.
Both the valley congressional seats are now held by GOP congressmen. California’s 13th and 22nd Congressional Districts are Latino-majority voting districts with more registered Democrats than Republicans. Each would have picked President Joe Biden over former President Donald Trump in 2020 by double-digit percentage points had current maps made through redistricting been in place.
Explaining issues that concern potential people of color, particularly people who have no-party preference, voter engagement groups say, could increase turnout in these districts and others. “We overwhelmingly feel that Latino voters want our votes earned,” said Pablo Rodriguez, executive director of Communities for a New California Education Fund, which works on voter engagement. “The noise of advertising the political campaigns is not earning those votes.”
The question for him is whether or not he can get it done this time around and oust a tough incumbent to beat.
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Rudy Salas for California-22
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What’s the Big Idea?
THIS DISTRICT IS A TOSSUP, with a D+5 PVI
Precinct results for CA-22 in 2022.
You would think that a district this Democratic would be an easy win for our team. Last decade proves that the Central Valley is anything but easy for the Democratic Party. Many weak or flawed candidates were chosen in the primary to face off against Rep. David Valadao, starting with 2012 when Rep. Dennis Cardoza retired. What should have been an easy hold turned into a nightmare.
While Valadao looked invincible most of the last decade, he did fall in the 2018 blue wave election like so many of his fellow California Republicans. Rep. TJ Cox was given no chance of winning, and the major networks even called this race for Valadao on election night. Cox, however, took advantage of late ballots to eke out a narrow win. Sadly, Cox was a shady politician who was dumped for Valadao again in 2020.
Valadao holds a district that Biden won 55.3% to 42.3% in 2020 and is one of the Republicans that is most vulnerable on paper. Yet he has a clear brand as a moderate as evidenced by being one of the two surviving members of the GOP to impeach former President Trump after the 1/6 insurrection. He defeated Rudy Salas 51.5% to 48.5% in 2022, or about 3000 votes in an otherwise terrible year for Democrats in California.
The Top 2 primary this year concluded in March. The GOP garnered 54.7% of the vote split between two candidates, while the Democrats combined for the other 45.3% of the vote. Only about 62.5k people voted in this primary election so participation was extremely low.
Here’s where this 22nd district race will be won.
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Bakersfield: This city is the anchor of the entire district, and the sections of the city placed in the district are blue. They are also plagued by poor turnout in elections. This is the home base of Rudy Salas, which means he cannot afford people sitting this one out.
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Farming Communities: There are plenty of farming communities such as Delano, McFarland, and many more found in the district. They are dots of blue in a sea of red, and it is vital that Salas prevents Valadao from winning over these votes. In a close race, this is where it is decided.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
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Tulare County: While the cities can be blue, most of them are swing areas that are a very light blue. Salas will have to keep these areas at 50-50 while not conceding the rural areas that are red. It will be a tough task for the challenger, as Valadao has roots in the area.
- Kings County: This is the home base of Valadao, and the county is already conservative in nature. Salas will have to keep as close to the Biden margins as possible, or otherwise this county risks upending his strategy, especially since this race will likely be very close.
Rudy Salas: Delivering for the Central Valley
Rudy Salas has delivered results for the Central Valley for a decade. He’ll do the same in Congress.
Rudy Salas was born in 1977 in Bakersfield, California. He graduated from UCLA with degrees in political science and history. The Bakersfield City Council had not elected a Latino in its entire 112-year history before Rudy Salas won a seat on that body.
In 2012, he ran for the 32nd district in the California Assembly. This district covered portions of Bakersfield and Kings County. It was recently vacated by none other than David Valadao. In a close race, Rudy Salas was able to prevail. In his five terms in the California Assembly, he was not effectively challenged again due to his moderate “Valleycrat” nature.
That’s not to say that Rudy Salas did not impact the lives of his constituents! He helped secure overtime pay for farm workers and an increase in the minimum wage in the Central Valley. He was one of the stronger Democrats in the State Assembly on workers’ rights, especially those of farm workers. He will continue to be strong on these issues in Congress.
Another set of issues critical to the Central Valley is water infrastructure. This area is amongst the most fertile in the world but this is only true due to the vast amounts of water devoted to agriculture. Salas brought home the bacon when it came to funding these critical projects and for safer drinking water for his constituents.
The Central Valley has many healthcare deserts. This is a problem, especially since “Valley Fever” plagues the area. Salas fought in the California legislature for increased funding to study this fungal infection Rudy has worked to expand access to mental health care in rural and underserved communities. He helped secure plenty of funds for PPE and other essentials during the COVID-19 pandemic. In this campaign for the House, Salas vows to expand Medicare to cover dental, vision, and hearing care for seniors nationwide.
Rep. David Valadao: One of the Last Ones
Rep. David Valadao is one of the last survivors of the 10 Republicans to impeach Trump in 2021.
Rep. David Valadao was born in 1977 in Hanford, California. His parents came from the Azores in Portugal. He finished high school and went to college but did not complete a degree. Instead, he worked at his father’s dairy farm and eventually became a partner in it in 1992. His dairy farm filed for bankruptcy after defaulting on $9M in loans in March 2018. He also faced a lawsuit alleging that employees were denied breaks, overtime pay, and minimum wage.
Valadao first entered politics in 2010 by running for the 30th district in the California Assembly. He easily won the primary and the general election that year. When a seat opened up in Congress in 2012, Valadao decided to run for it. In what would become a theme for his campaigns, he faced a weak opponent and coasted in the general election.
Valadao is a moderate by today’s standards in the GOP. He voted to impeach Trump after the 1/6 insurrection and voted to establish the commission to investigate that day. He has voted to protect same-sex marriage. He is open to comprehensive immigration reform. In the 117th Congress, he voted with Joe Biden’s stated position 30% of the time.
There’s plenty to dislike about his record as well. When Trump was in charge, Valadao voted with Trump’s stated position 97% of the time. Some of his not-so-moderate votes include repealing the ACA and supporting the Trump Tax Scam. More recently, he also voted against the Bipartisan Infrastructure Law and also capping the cost of insulin.
The issue that could define the race, much like elsewhere, is Valadao’s stance on abortion. He supported a bill that would ban abortion without any exceptions. He voted against a bill that would protect access to contraception. Valadao even co-sponsored the Life at Conception Act which would ban IVF treatments nationwide! His moderate facade falls apart when looking at abortion rights.
Valadao may not be a MAGA Republican but he is still not worthy of representing the Central Valley of California.
How Can You Help?
This race was one of the more expensive races in America in 2022 and I don’t doubt that it will be a nasty and expensive affair this year. Both candidates have already raised more than $3M total for this race, with Valadao having a slight cash-on-hand advantage at the end of June. Salas outraised him in the Q2 reporting period having raised $1.29M in funds compared to Valadao’s $606k. Salas being added to Red to Blue certainly helped in the fundraising department.
Outside groups see an opportunity to influence this election as well. Both the Bakersfield and Fresno media markets will see tons of money poured into them for this race, although Fresno covers California's 13th district as well. Democrats and their allies will spend up to $7.2M on these two races, while the GOP and their allies have purchased $12.36M to defend these seats.
The Central Valley is plagued by poor turnout even in Presidential elections. Volunteering is vitally important, especially in attempting to persuade voters to vote for Rudy Salas at the same time as MVP Harris. Valadao relies on those crossover voters to stay in office and he will have no chance if people stick with the Democratic Party down the ballot.
The California Democratic Party is hosting virtual phone banks for Salas every Wednesday from 5-7PM PDT. They will assist you if you’ve never done this before so don’t fret about it. I suspect those that can speak Spanish are especially vital for this race so if you can do that please sign up.
The Rudy Salas campaign also is focused on canvassing and knocking on doors in this rather large district. The next one-time canvassing opportunity is the weekend of August 17th in Hanford and Armona. There is a recurring door-knocking campaign on weekdays, and also Saturday and Sunday in Bakersfield. Another one is starting in Tulare every Tuesday and Thursday.
Again, training will be provided if you have never done this before. In fact, the California Democratic Party hosts extra training every Tuesday.
If you desire to volunteer for Rudy Salas on a more permanent basis, I have included a link to do so at the top and bottom of this article.
Rudy Salas, if elected, is going to be one of the most moderate Democrats in our caucus, and there’s no way to sugarcoat that fact. He was that way in the California Assembly and he will be that way in Congress. What matters to his future constituents is that he will deliver results to one of the more neglected parts of our nation - the Central Valley of California. What matters to progressives is that he is likely to vote for Hakeem Jeffries as Speaker of the House.
Rep. David Valadao can rightfully be called a moderate Republican by today’s standards in the GOP. He has a definite brand in the Central Valley which makes it tough to oust him. Even so, this brand has lost before and it is very possible for it to lose again. Daily Kos Elections rates him as the 7th most vulnerable member of the GOP. My worry is that Valadao will slip through and win another term yet again.
The question for Rudy Salas is whether or not he can oust Valadao from Congress just like he was ousted in 2018.
Rudy Salas for California-22
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