In the excitement about MVP Harris I feel that another important goal has been lost. We’re falling for the same trap we always do in a Presidential year — we focus so heavily on the race for the highest office that we lose sight of the fact that Congress is equally as important to enact our agenda.
I’ve covered the key races in the Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, Great Plains/Mountain West, the Rust Belt, Southwest, New York and California. Those states alone have enough potential to win back the House of Representatives and keep the Senate. But what about other areas of the United States? I’m happy to take a quick look elsewhere too!
Today, I’m looking at the key races in the Southern region of the United States. This includes races in Florida, North Carolina, and Texas. We are guaranteed to lose 3 House seats in North Carolina due to gerrymandering, but we gain 2 back from Louisiana and Alabama due to fairer maps that are VRA compliant.
But first, the donations to the Good News Roundup team have dried up in recent times. Donating below is more efficient than to each individual candidate, and you don’t get the spammy calls and emails either!
Here is the Defeat the MAGA Dozen Fund on ActBlue! These 15 incumbent members of the GOP are MAGA Republicans residing in swing districts. The challengers are all strong and can win in these tougher districts. Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #MAGADozen
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We have raised nearly $9.3k of the $10k goal so far!
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Here is the Save Our Senate 2024 Fund on ActBlue! The 2024 Senate map is a brutal one! These 10 candidates are the key to holding the Senate. Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #SaveOurSenate
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We have raised nearly $25.4k of the new $50k goal so far!
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Now that this is out of the way, let’s dive into the contests!
Florida
Florida Senate: Debbie Mucarsel-Powell
Former Rep. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell is about the best we can do in a state that is trending away fast.
I’m skeptical that this will be a competitive race. There is no outside spending and Florida was the site of a complete ass-whooping in 2022. Yet the abortion rights amendment seems to be on track to passing and there is enthusiasm in the state I haven’t read about since 2012. Debbie Mucarsel-Powell had better hope that the polls are wrong. I have already written about the race for Florida Senate.
Florida-13: Whitney Fox
Whitney Fox seems to have a race on her hands for Florida’s 13th district.
Whitney Fox worked in transportation before running for Congress against the lunatic Rep. Anna Paulina Luna. Polling has this race competitive, with one poll saying she’s ahead and another behind — both within the margin for error. Again, I don’t trust Florida polling or the state in general but I do note that Paulina Luna greatly underperformed the lean of her district in 2022.
Florida-27: Lucia Baez-Geller
Lucia Baez-Geller needs an outstanding performance from the top of the ticket to win here.
The Miami area, and Cubans in particular, shifted sharply to the right between 2016 and 2020. That trend continued in 2022 leading to the GOP carrying Miami-Dade County. Trends aren’t on our side in Florida’s 27th district. Yet Trump only won this district by about a point and the hope is Debbie Mucarsel-Powell has some coattails so that Lucia Baez-Geller can win. If you donate to one candidate, make it her.
North Carolina
North Carolina Governor: Josh Stein
AG Josh Stein has to face the nuttiest candidate the GOP has to offer in 2024.
AG Josh Stein is looking good in the polls right now but we cannot ease off the brakes just yet. Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson is about as nutty as they come but North Carolina is an evenly divided state. The fact that MVP Harris is seriously contesting the state should help him. It is paramount that we defeat Mark Robinson no matter what because he is the logical terminus of the MAGA movement. I’ve already written about the race for North Carolina Governor.
North Carolina-1: Rep. Don Davis
Gerrymandering has put Rep. Don Davis at risk of losing.
This district was already a swing seat before the GOP meddled with it, and now it is a seat that just barely voted for President Biden in 2020. Rep. Don Davis was already gearing up for a fight before the NC GOP redrew the maps. Now his task is that much more difficult. Luckily as per usual the opposition seems to be extreme. I’ve already written about the race for North Carolina’s 1st district.
Texas
Texas Senate: Rep. Colin Allred
Texas isn’t quite there yet in my estimation. Rep. Colin Allred is testing my theory out though.
Texas is a state that is trending our way but it has a ways to go before it even becomes a swing state. If the opponent weren’t Sen. Ted Cruz we likely wouldn’t have a shot at this race. He is so loathed that there is an opening for Rep. Colin Allred to win. Allred may need to do so in order to hold the Senate because polling in Montana is looking very bad for us. I’ve already written about the race for Texas Senate.
Texas-15: Michelle Vallejo
Michelle Vallejo wasn’t particularly competitive in 2022. She’s looking to change that this year.
Texas’ 15th district was purposely gerrymandered so that the GOP could win a seat in the Rio Grande Valley. Rep. Monica De la Cruz is a typical MAGA politician but with the trend to the right she will be tough to beat in a Trump district. Michelle Vallejo is a member of Red to Blue and is receiving a lot more support than during her first run in 2022. I’ve already written about the race for Texas’ 15th district.
These are the strongest challengers in the South, plus the North Carolina seats which are in danger of flipping. We cannot count on the region to supply much in the way of winning back the majority but it could pad our margins. The two Senate races could be critical given that Montana seems likely to flip. May our nominees have luck in their races!
