In the aftermath of January 6th, everyone hated Sen. Josh Hawley. His mentor, Sen. John Danforth, repudiated him. The two main newspapers in the state of Missouri called on him to resign. Large corporations demanded their donations back from him. His professors and colleagues asked for him to be disbarred. Conservative columnist George Will branded Hawley and Cruz with the Scarlet Letter “S” for seditionist. It seemed that Hawley threw away his political career all for an election that he knew Trump had lost.
Photo taken the night of January 6th. You can tell how incensed Mitt Romney is at Josh Hawley.
The image above was another iconic image in my mind. Having Sen. Mitt Romney so angry at a fellow Republican responsible for the insurrection was *chef’s kiss* very appropriate. It was another sign that Hawley became persona non grata even in the minds of some Republicans.
That includes that Missouri's U.S. Sen. Josh Hawley, whom Romney described as the "the smartest person in the room," but expressed frustrations over his objection to the certification of the Biden's presidential election victory.
Coppins described Romney as willing to work with nearly any of his senate colleagues but said, "Josh Hawley was one [Romney] said that he doesn't see a future of working with him on anything because he really was kind of deeply offended by Josh Hawley's role in the objecting to the electoral votes."
But Hawley has mostly recovered from his role as January 6th perpetrator a year after the heinous event. His popularity was back to normal Republican levels and there may not be an opening to attack him for what he did that day.
As political polarization grows in the United States, politicians associated with Jan. 6 appear to face few ramifications from voters.
“I think what happened with last January to Josh is kind of what’s happened to a lot of individuals who have been associated with the insurrection and that is not much,” said Terry Smith, a political science professor at Columbia College in Missouri. “Many of them are not being held to account and it’s kind of, nothing to see here, life goes on.”
While January 6th could be an issue for the race, reliance on it by our challenger, Lucas Kunce, would be a mistake. Abortion rights and pocketbook issues likely have more salience than an event that has been largely forgotten by people with the memory of a goldfish. It will be a balancing act for Kunce. Missouri is undoubtedly conservative and also enamored of Trump. What issue can take Hawley down? That is the question for Lucas Kunce.
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Lucas Kunce for MO-SEN
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What’s the Big Idea?
2018 results for MO-SEN by county. A familiar map.
THIS STATE IS LIKELY REPUBLICAN, with an R+10 PVI
Missouri used to be a reliable bellwether state that determined which political party would win the White House. That streak lasted for a century with only one exception: 1956. Barack Obama came within a few thousand votes of winning the state in 2008 and that broke the streak for the one-time swing state. It has been a troubling stampede to the right ever since. Romney won the state by nearly 10% in 2012, and Trump won it by 18% in 2016 and 15% in 2020.
Sen. Claire McCaskill hung on for a bit longer than that. Todd “legitimate rape” Akin was a gift for her faltering campaign in 2012 that allowed her to win in a landslide even as Obama wasn’t contesting the state. The 2018 blue wave election kept the race closer than the state’s lean, but Attorney General Josh Hawley still defeated McCaskill by a comfortable 51.4% to 45.6% margin. That was the last competitive race in the state as the GOP has won everything else by double-digits ever since.
The frustrating aspect of Missouri politics is that the people vote for progressive ballot measures quite frequently. We keep winning progressive referendums — to expand Medicaid, stop “right to work for less” and legalize pot. There is an abortion rights referendum that has a decent chance of passing going on the ballot this year. That referendum offers a small glimmer of hope for Lucas Kunce to win.
The problem with Missouri is the demographics of the state. The two big metropolitan areas (St. Louis and Kansas City) are too small and too conservative to dominate the state like in other states we control. The population as a whole is also very white (77%), very rural (31%), and very white evangelical Christian (36%). Those demographics are kryptonite for Democratic prospects in the state as it currently stands.
The benchmarks listed here are a combination of the Medicaid referendum and improving upon the 2018 loss for former Sen. Claire McCaskill. You’ll see how tough the math is for this state when you see what we have to flip in order to eke out a win.
Here’s where this Missouri race will be won.
- St. Louis Metro Area: Kunce needs overwhelming margins from both the city of St. Louis, as well as St. Louis County. He probably needs 2/3rds of the vote in the county and 85% in the city to have a shot. He’ll also have to flip St. Charles County — which McCaskill lost 53-44 in 2018 and Trump won 58-40 in 2020. He will also have to keep Jefferson County close as McCaskill lost it 54-42 in 2018 and Trump won it by 2/3rds of the vote in 2020.
- Kansas City Metro Area: Kunce needs the Kansas City area to zoom to the left in order to have a chance. He likely needs 2/3rds of the vote in Jackson County and to win clear majorities in Clay County and Platte County (Trump won these counties in 2020) to offset trouble areas elsewhere. Kunce will also have to keep Buchanan County (St. Joseph) close as McCaskill lost 53-43 in 2018 and Trump won 61-38 in 2020.
- Columbia: The University of Missouri is a blue oasis in a sea of red counties that surround it. Kunce will need to turn out every professor and college voter on campus if he wants to entertain thoughts of winning. He will need to clear 60% of the vote here, which is a tall task given it averages 55% of the vote for Democratic candidates.
- Springfield: What is a county Trump won 59-39 doing here in the “must win” category? It is because it narrowly voted for the Medicaid referendum and Kunce will have to most certainly get as close to 50-50 as possible in order to win this year. McCaskill also lost it 55-41 in 2018 — showing how daunting the math is for this state.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Southeastern Missouri and the Lead Belt: There isn’t a county in these areas that voted under 70% for Trump in 2020. There used to be residual Democratic strength here — especially when mining unions mattered in the Lead Belt. Those days are long gone and the question is how many votes Kunce will be behind by when this region reports.
- Southwestern Missouri: I would include Springfield in this area except Kunce has to do well there in order to win. Trump cleared 75% of the vote in most of the counties in the region and cleared 80% in many as well. This area is a part of the Bible Belt, so it makes sense that Kunce and MVP Harris will struggle here.
- Northern Missouri: It happened earlier than rural Iowa to the north, but the corn and soybean belt of Missouri is a depressing place to watch returns for the Democratic Party. Trump again averaged over 75% of the vote in most counties in the area in 2020. Kunce will have to really connect with rural voters but will they consider him with the “D” next to his name?
Lucas Kunce: The JAG with Swagger
Lucas Kunce may need to lean into his military service to win in a red state — even against Hawley.
Lucas Kunce was born in 1982 in Hartsville, Missouri and grew up in Jefferson City. His father worked for the government of Missouri while his mother took care of an ailing sister. Like many families facing overwhelming medical conditions, the Kunce family faced poverty and even bankruptcy. Kunce graduated valedictorian of his high school class and received a Pell Grant to attend Yale University. He would graduate with a degree in classical civilization. He would further get a JD degree from the University of Missouri which prepared him to pass the Missouri bar exam in 2007.
While in law school, Kunce ran for the Missouri House of Representatives district 113. He ran in the 2006 blue wave year and won 44% of the vote which was an amazing result for a Republican district. Instead of running for political office again, Kunce would join the US Marine Corps as a JAG officer. He would serve two tours in Iraq and two tours in Afghanistan. Kunce left active duty in 2020 but is still in the reserves as a Lt. Colonel.
Upon returning to the US, Kunce served as a negotiator for the Joint Staff of the Pentagon in delicate arms talks with Russia and NATO. In June 2017, he joined the Council on Foreign Relations, a think tank specializing in international relations and foreign policy. Upon leaving active duty, Kunce would join another think tank — the American Economic Liberties Project. He helped this think tank fighting corporate monopolies as director of national security.
Kunce ran for the other Missouri Senate seat in 2022. He was criticized for being an outsider, for not voting frequently in Missouri, and for being too progressive for this conservative state. Kunce would come in second in the Democratic primary — losing out to Trudy Busch Valentine by 5% of the vote. He would wind up endorsing Busch Valentine and campaigning for her. Busch Valentine would lose by double-digits to Eric Schmitt.
Kunce is emphasizing abortion rights first and foremost in this campaign. This makes sense as there is a ballot measure enshrining abortion rights into the state constitution this year. He would protect IVF and contraception, codify Roe into law, and even get rid of the Hyde Amendment which prohibits the government from funding abortions. He would ditch the filibuster to enact legislation in this area.
Kunce has a HUGE plan to decarbonize the economy. He comes from a position of end foreign reliance on oil and to end military conflicts for the resource. Another benefit would be to lessen the impact on climate change. Basically, he would rapidly phase out fossil fuels in the energy and transportation sectors and curtail them as much as possible elsewhere. Domestic oil production would only serve as a bridge until this plan is realized. Kunce estimates this plan would cost $4.5 trillion but it will be cheaper than the alternative of waiting until it is too late.
Kunce is dovish and isolationist on foreign policy and using the military for nation-building. He cites the failed attempts at doing so in Iraq and especially Afghanistan as proof that America cannot force their views on anyone else. He calls for the “Marshall Plan for the Midwest” which would re-shore supply chains and manufacturing that has been outsourced to economic competitors such as China. He would even go so far as forcibly selling farm lands owned by foreigners in the US. However, Kunce is very pro-immigrant, stating that we should attract the best and brightest minds from around the world.
Kunce also supports measures to strengthen our democracy, common sense gun safety measures, expanding health care access (including possibly Medicare for All), the right to unionize, LGBTQ+ rights, and criminal justice reform. To see where he stands on all of the issues, visit his campaign website. I’ve included a link at the top and the bottom of this article.
Kunce is definitely the JAG with swagger. I hope he puts out an ad assembling a rifle blindfolded — just like Jason Kander.
Sen. Josh Hawley: The Cowardly Insurrectionist
Fomenting insurrection on one hand and fleeing from the mob in the other. What a coward!
Josh Hawley was born in 1979 in Springdale, Arkansas. As a youth, he would move to Lexington, Missouri because his father had a banking executive job there. Hawley would attend a private Jesuit school in the area and graduate valedictorian. Even his teachers and professors thought Hawley had unlimited potential and that he has the best mind they’ve ever taught. He would study history at Stanford University and join the prestigious Phi Beta Kappa.
After teaching a year in London, Hawley would return to attend Yale Law School. He stood out as someone politically ambitious and very conservative. He would graduate with a JD degree in 2006 but not before writing and editing many conservative columns for the Yale Law Journal and joining the Federalist Society.
Hawley would start out clerking for very conservative Judge Michael McConnell of the 10th Circuit and then Chief Justice John Roberts. He met his wife, Erin Hawley (who is also a piece of work and was behind the Dobbs decision), while clerking for Roberts. He would leave clerking in 2008 and enter private practice as an appellate litigator and to teach law at the University of Missouri. Burwell v. Hobby Lobby was one of his brainchildren, and he submitted a brief before the Supreme Court for that case.
Hawley would finally run for political office in 2016, setting his sights on the Missouri Attorney General race. He would crush his primary and general election opposition. He criticized other politicians for being ambitious and for “climbing the ladder” which became an attack that boomeranged against him two years later when running against Sen. McCaskill. His residency has always been an issue as well — with his primary one being in Virginia while he votes at his sister’s address in Missouri.
As Attorney General, Hawley took the office in a very conservative direction. He is most well known for joining a lawsuit and arguing that the ACA is unconstitutional in February 2018. This was the last of the ACA cases to get before the Supreme Court and it was dismissed on lack of standing instead of constitutional grounds.
Since joining the Senate, Hawley has been labeled a rightist, a populist, and a Christian nationalist. Many of his stances reflect his very conservative views — especially religious conservative views. For instance, he does not believe in any exceptions for abortion rights. He will only confirm judges that have a 100% “pro-life” record and concur with the heinous Dobbs decision. He is also a religious bigot and seeks to enshrine protections for religious bigots to discriminate — especially against the LGBTQ+ community.
Hawley has notably voted against almost every nominee for the executive branch that Joe Biden has proposed. He even was the sole vote against accepting Sweden and Finland into NATO.
Ten months into Biden's term, Hawley had voted to approve only four of 118 executive appointments that received a Senate vote, and none in the preceding five months. This record made him a standout among senators. Political scientist Wendy Schiller compared Hawley to "senators who have basically made it their career to stop the Senate in its tracks." She noted that Hawley differed from his predecessors in that his obstruction had no clear policy goal, but was more about punishing the Biden administration.
With a wink and a nod to QAnon conspiracy theories, Hawley also strongly opposed the confirmation of Justice Ketanji Brown Jackson.
Hawley is notorious for railing against the “cosmopolitan elites” of both political parties. This has been interpreted as an anti-Semitic slur, echoing the “rootless cosmopolitans” of the Stalin and Hitler days.
For years the politics of both Left and Right have been informed by a political consensus that reflects the interests not of the American middle, but of a powerful upper class and their cosmopolitan priorities. This class lives in the United States, but they identify as "citizens of the world". They run businesses or oversee universities here, but their primary loyalty is to the global community.
Of course, Hawley is most well known for his role on January 6th. That fist-pump is one of the indelible images of the insurrection, as was his running away from them in the hallway. Hawley was the first Senator to announce that he would object to the 2020 Presidential election results. He forwarded and parroted Trump’s baseless claims of election fraud and that he was looking for “election integrity”. He suggested Trump should stay in office until this dispute was resolved. He was hyperbolic about a peaceful protest in front of his Virginia home prior to January 6th. Even after the insurrection was cleared, Hawley continued in his objections. They were ultimately defeated by the Senate.
Sen. Josh Hawley should be barred from office solely for his role in January 6th. His Christian nationalist views should be disqualifying to voters everywhere. Yet it seems like he is on a glide path to winning the 2024 election.
How Can You Help?
Lucas Kunce is actually outraising Sen. Josh Hawley each quarter. The last one brought in $2.66M for Kunce and $1.7M for Hawley. Hawley has had longer to fundraise so he still leads in the cash-on-hand department by $5.76M to $4.23M over Kunce. National and outside groups won’t lift a finger to help either candidate as this race has been written off. It will be based solely on how much each candidate raises and can spend for themselves.
Outside of the abortion rights referendum, there doesn’t seem to be a whole lot of organizing going on in the state of Missouri on Mobilize. Perhaps the state uses a different app for canvassing and phone banking. I don’t know. What I do know is that the only four locations with events that tangentially help Kunce are St. Louis, Kansas City, Springfield, and Columbia.
If you know anything more about organizing in Missouri, chime in via the comments. I’ll update the article with pertinent information if people share it!
Lucas Kunce has a steep hill to climb to win in a state that Donald Trump will coast in. MVP Harris will not contest Missouri, nor will national groups spend a single dime helping out the challenger. That means it is mano a mano between Kunce and Hawley. Kunce needs a lot to go his way to win this race, including the abortion ballot measure passing overwhelmingly. Even then it probably won’t be enough.
We all want Sen. Josh Hawley gone! Sadly, polling suggests that he is the prohibitive favorite but running behind Trump. If enough Missourians split their tickets there may be a small chance. That’s why I rate this seat as the new 12th most likely seat to flip in the Senate. I’m a bit more skeptical than this article, but it did help convince me a victory is possible.
The question is whether or not feelings about Hawley overrule stone cold analysis about our chances of winning this Senate seat.
Lucas Kunce for MO-SEN
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