To honor Pakalolo “Friends of Gaia’ present “News from Antarctica”
“News from the world of vanishing ice”
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"By now, many of you know of Pakalolo’s absence from the site. Dooey ran a diary a couple of weeks ago to see if anyone knew what had happened to him. www.dailykos.com/…
Finally, someone in the comments assured the rest of us that he’d spoken with him and that he was “all right”.
Whether he will return or not, remains uncertain.
In the meantime, the situation in Antarctica is not on a hiatus, and it is definitely not ‘all right’.
So, I’ve decided to try to provide a forum for keeping the site updated on the partial collapse of Thwaites and other important events in the polar regions in Pakalolo’s absence, by posting information and asking readers to add any information they feel informs the narrative.
I have no delusions about my abilities in this regard. Pakalolo and M.B as well, are phenomenon this site is likely not to see again. But if we all pitch in, we can collectively keep Pakalolo’s legacy intact and viable.
It is my hope that should Pakalolo return, he will be able to pick things up again without too much of a break in the narrative.
Pierrus on X: "@Kevin_cindy12 Take a look at this Sentinel-1 satellite animation of Thwaites Glacier updated today. The Thwaites Eastern Ice Shelf is collapsing suddenly at the moment. https://t.co/U4PLiA8jgS" / X
Current satellite images show a catastrophic breakup of the Thwaites glacier tongue and the Eastern Thwaites Ice Shelf.
If I understand correctly, this is due to cracking of the ice sheet, from warmer water between the land base of the glacier and the massive thickness of ice it supports. The enormous pressure forces this warm water up through the cracks, which causes melting and undermines the integrity of the ice sheet. Rapid melting is eroding vulnerable cracks in Thwaites Glacier (sciencenews.org)
The collapse of this fantastically massive and ancient ice shelf displays the unleashing of power, that shrinks anything we are capable of into utter insignificance. It is coming far in advance of scientific predictions, which speaks clearly of our inability to comprehend the forces we toy with, much less control. This is a warning we need to pay heed to — before it becomes an epitaph. The grotesque size to which the human ego can grow fails to shield us from the consequences — providing us with a pathetic illusion of invulnerability instead.
If we don’t act soon we will be snuffed out.
https://www.sciencealert.com/7000-years-ago-this-ice-sheet-was-smaller-scientists-think-they-know-why#:~:text=Although%20this%20region%20has%20been%20stable%20during%20the,its%20present%20position%20within%20the%20last%202%2C000%20years
I do not have Pakalolo’s hands-on expertise and in order to avoid misinformation through inexperience, I’ll initially confine these updates to whatever links and images I can find, accompanied with minimal commentary.
In time I hope to find firmer footing, but as we all know, collapsing ice is treacherous.
I am also working under severe time constrains, as I am attempting to do this when already maxed out by prior commitments.
To help me share the burden, subsequent diaries will be presented through “Friends of Gaia” with birches, coolspring and myself taking turns posting them.
We are doing this as our way to honor Pakalolo, and hope to be able to provide the community with at least a bare minimum of valuable information. Please be patient and supportive of our efforts. As I mention above, we whole heartedly welcome any extra information readers might be willing to share in comments.
To wrap up, I include this link and excerpt from Meteor Blades' Earth Matters 8/25/24 referencing the results of a recent study, which provides a less dire timeline for melting and sea level rise.
From that diary:
“Rethinking the “Doomsday Glacier”: Scientists Challenge Alarming Antarctic Ice Collapse Predictions. From Science Advances. A new Dartmouth-led report says that one of the worst projections of how high the world’s oceans might rise as the planet’s polar ice sheets melt is highly unlikely — though it stresses that the accelerating loss of ice from Greenland and Antarctica is nonetheless dire. The researchers write that a U.N. climate report addressed a possible “low likelihood” scenario in which the collapse of the southern continent’s ice sheets would boost average global sea level twice as high by 2100 than other models project — and three times as high by 2300. In the latter case, that would mean a rise of 50 feet. The prediction is based on a hypothetical mechanism of how ice sheets retreat and break apart. Known as the Marine Ice Cliff Instability (MICI), that mechanism has not been observed and has previously only been tested with a single low-resolution model. The researchers instead use a mechanism with three high-resolution models. They simulated the retreat of Antarctica’s " data-gt-translate-attributes="[{">Thwaites Glacier, the 75-mile-wide ice sheet nicknamed the “Doomsday Glacier” for the accelerating rate at which it is melting and its potential to raise global sea levels by more than two feet. Their models showed that even the imperiled Thwaites is unlikely to rapidly collapse during the 21st century as MICI would predict.
>Richard Alley is one of the brightest minds on the subject of Thwaites. He had this to say toward the end of the of this article by the NYT reporting on the same study.https://www.nytimes.com/2024/08/21/climate/antarctic-ice-cliff-collapse.html?unlocked_article_code=1.E04.NdB9.AD0gaYB9kbzs&smid=em-share
The problem — or one of them, at least — is that scientists don’t have enough observations of how ice behaves when it fractures, said Richard Alley, a professor of geosciences at Pennsylvania State University. Ice can collapse quickly, he said. If scientists don’t happen to be watching, they can easily miss it. “The data we are getting now are not sufficient,” Dr. Alley said.”
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I am always leery regarding prediction, especially when we find ourselves in novel circumstances.
If I’m remembering correctly, Pakalolo shared this view and avoided certitude regarding time frames. Over the 40+ years I’ve been following the effects of environmental neglect, I’ve seen these time frames change many times, as new information surfaces, better methods for interpreting it are developed and the erosion of denial opens peoples minds to an abhorrent reality.
Overall, the trend has been a shortening timeline and just as environmental collapse accelerates, such framing tends to get reduced in inverse proportion.
Recently, M.B. reported about the ongoing inaccuracy of methane release measurements.
I am expecting that to have an effect on the two-year time limit that the UN Climate Chief gave us approx 6 months ago, for getting greenhouse emissions under control. I doubt this will be kind to us.
I find it a struggle to maintain an open mind regarding aspects of this crisis, particularly as, like most people, I share a tendency to gravitate towards positive information, even when we should know better. But I’ve learned to be guarded.
My wariness of ‘adopted’ optimism is grounded in observation and a fairly reliable memory.
In this, I prefer being ‘pleasantly surprised’ to ‘rudely awakened’ and so I err on the side of skepticism.
Scientists see evidence of 'vigorous melting' at grounding level of Antarctic 'Doomsday Glacier'
Another of M.B.’s diaries on this topic, but reporting on the results of different research.
