This contest is a rematch of 2022, and the race has already turned nasty.
A brewing rematch in a congressional district that could determine which party controls the U.S. House of Representatives is quickly turning bitter and personal.
In New York’s expansive 19th Congressional District, which stretches from Tompkins County in the west to Rensselaer County in the east, Republican Rep. Marc Molinaro is trying for a repeat of 2022, when he beat Democrat Josh Riley.
In recent interviews, Molinaro labeled Riley a “fraud,” while Riley said Molinaro is “really good at pointing fingers” and “really bad at solving problems.
Molinaro, the incumbent, touts his decades living in upstate New York and endorsements from various trade unions, while casting Riley as an out-of-touch Washington insider. He points to Riley’s time spent outside of the district working as a clerk for a federal judge and an aide on Capitol Hill before entering private practice.
“The people I represent know what it's like to be ignored. They know what it's like to be abandoned … Hell, they even saw my opponent leave 20 years ago,” Molinaro said of Riley.
Riley, in response, says he is a fifth-generation native of Broome County.
Riley labels his opponent a career politician, noting the decades that Molinaro has spent in public office, including previously serving as a state assemblyman and county executive.
The article continues by stating that control of the House, abortion rights, and immigration are especially bitter issues in this contest with Molinaro trying to portray himself as a moderate and Riley lambasting his actual record on each of those issues.
The truth is that Rep. Marc Molinaro has given up the right to proclaim himself a moderate based on his actions in Congress. The question for Josh Riley is whether or not he can take advantage of a second chance to win a swing seat in Upstate New York.
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Josh Riley for New York-19
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What’s the Big Idea?
THIS HOUSE RACE IS RATED AS A TOSSUP, with an R+1 PVI
Precinct results for NY-19 in 2022. Molinaro narrowly won.
With New York and especially Upstate not growing in population, the state sheds Congressional districts with every Census. That makes it difficult to provide a concise history of the 19th district or any other district in Upstate New York. The lines even changed from 2022 to 2024 as New York had to redraw its lines due to a State Court of Appeals ruling.
The old boundaries of NY-19 used in the 2022 election.
The new boundaries of NY-19 in 2024. It is slightly more red than before.
In this decade, the 19th district is sort of a leftovers district that isn’t a strong community of interest. It spans from east of Albany down to Ulster County and then heads west all the way to Ithaca. The boundary changes benefited the 18th district (and incumbent Rep. Pat Ryan) at the expense of the 19th district (and challenger Josh Riley). Joe Biden won this configuration 51.2% to 46.8% or about even with his nationwide win. That means Trump won this district 48%-46% in 2016.
In 2020, 384k voted and Anthony Delgado (D) won by over 40k. In the special election of August 2022, with 132k voters, Pat Ryan (D) won by almost 4,000 votes. In the November 2022 election, with NY Democrats suffering from both an anti-Biden sentiment and an unpopular Democratic Governor, along with a re-defined district, Mark Molinaro (R) won with a margin of about 4,500 of the 287k votes — or 50.8% to 49.2%. With a new, less-Democratic district, observers expect another relatively close outcome.
Here’s where this 19th district race will be won.
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Tompkins County: Ithaca is a college town and thus a very rich source of votes for Josh Riley. Riley also lives in this portion of the district meaning an overperformance here is critical. Biden won the county Ithaca is in 74%-24% and Riley basically needs to match that or do better to win.
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Broome County: The working-class city of Binghamton is actually trending in a direction favorable to the GOP. Biden won this county 50.5%-47% in 2020 and Riley needs to avoid any more slippage in the area. This is likely the most critical area in the district to the chances of Riley.
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Ulster County: The bluest portions of the county are still in Rep. Pat Ryan’s district. The 19th was given the swing areas in the county and it is important for Riley to maintain the Biden margins in them if possible. We are getting close to the home base of Molinaro, so it is easier said than done.
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Columbia County: This county on the eastern bank of the Hudson River voted 57%-41% for Biden, making it a critical area for Riley’s chances of winning. Molinaro is from Dutchess County which is nearby meaning Riley will likely bleed some support to him from more moderate voters.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
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Otsego, Chenango, and Delaware Counties: Otsego County is competitive, but in 2022 it favored Trump by a 51%-46% result. The other two counties are deep red and have enough votes to matter in a close race. Riley will need to court persuadable voters in these counties to get enough votes to win.
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Sullivan County: The mirror image of Ulster County, this county is fairly red now as evidenced by Trump winning it 54%-45% in 2020. Riley will have to compete for votes in the towns of Monticello and Liberty but the rest of the county is a lost cause.
- Greene and Rensselaer Counties: The red portions of Rensselaer County are included in the district. Greene County is a small county near Albany that is a 57%-41% Trump county. While Riley cannot write off the voters in these areas it is clear that he won’t get as many votes as Molinaro here.
Josh Riley: A Second Chance
Josh Riley has lived in Upstate New York most of his life. He will make a fine addition to Congress.
Josh Riley was born and raised in Endicott, New York which is right near Binghamton. Riley received a bachelor’s degree from William and Mary College and a JD degree from Harvard Law School. He was a staff assistant to former Rep. Maurice Hinchey (D-NY), then a policy analyst at the US Department of Labor. After law school, he clerked on the Ninth US Circuit Court of Appeals and then became general counsel to Sen. Al Franken on the Senate Judiciary Committee. He then practiced law in private practices.
Labor issues are an area where Josh Riley will show strength. As an attorney in private practice, he represented workers whose rights were violated under the Fair Labor Standards Act. He is for passage of the PRO Act which will make it easier to unionize. If placed on the HELP Committee, he will conduct oversight that would ensure labor laws are properly enforced.
In huge contrast to Rep. Marc Molinaro, Josh Riley stands with women on abortion rights. He will sponsor and help pass the Women’s Health Protection Act to codify Roe into law. Riley would also be a vote to protect contraception access, IVF, and birth control from the ravages of the GOP.
Unlike Molinaro who supports the (Conservative) Parents’ Bill of Rights which attacks public education, Josh Riley will be a supporter of it. He would promote career and technical programs that are worthy alternatives to a four-year college degree. Riley would also support universal free school meals. Finally, Riley champions both a STEM education and funding for the arts in schools.
Riley respects the 2nd Amendment but also helped design legislation after the Sandy Hook school shooting. He supports common sense gun safety measures such as enhanced background checks, an assault weapons ban, and red flag laws. That will make Americans safer from the scourge of gun violence.
Josh Riley has a detailed issues page on his campaign website for virtually every issue. Go and check it out!
Rep. Marc Molinaro: Lost Moderate Credibility
Rep. Marc Molinaro used to be more moderate. Washington, DC has changed him for the worse.
Rep. Marc Molinaro was born in Yonkers, New York in 1975. Molinaro’s parents divorced when he was young which led to Marc and his mother moving to Beacon and then Tivoli. Molinaro’s family struggled financially and received government assistance. Molinaro was the youngest mayor in America in 1995 when elected mayor of Tivoli. He was re-elected five times to that position and also served in the Dutchess County Legislature.
Molinaro was elected to the New York State Assembly in 2006 for New York’s 103rd district. Molinaro decided to run for Dutchess County Executive in May 2011. He went on to win that position with 62% of the vote in November 2011. He was re-elected handily in both 2015 and 2019 as well. Molinaro was best known for his advocacy for people with disabilities. His 2015 initiative called “Think Differently” was well received, and he appointed a Deputy Commissioner of Special Needs in 2016.
Molinaro ran for governor in 2018 against incumbent Gov. Andrew Cuomo. He ran as a moderate in this campaign, but New Yorkers decided to re-elect Cuomo during the blue-wave election. Despite also securing the Conservative and Reform lines, Molinaro only received 36% of the vote compared to Cuomo’s 60% of the vote.
Molinaro ran in the 2022 special election for New York’s 19th district when Rep. Antonio Delgado was tapped as Lt. Governor of New York. This came about because Cuomo resigned after sexual harassment allegations and Lt. Governor Kathy Hochul ascended to the governor’s chair. Her first pick for Lt. Governor, Brian Benjamin, resigned after being indicted on federal bribery and wire fraud charges.
That special election was expected to be very close with a slight GOP edge. It was seen as a barometer for how Democrats could do in House elections in 2022. Pat Ryan had other ideas and wound up winning by a 51%-49% spread. 2020 redistricting shifted the 19th district westward, and Molinaro ran against Josh Riley as discussed above.
Molinaro rightfully had a reputation as a moderate Republican in New York politics and he still has vestiges of moderation left. For instance, he supports LGBTQ+ rights and would’ve voted for the Respect for Marriage Act had he been in Congress at the time. His campaign website doesn’t demonize immigrants and he is still a champion of those with disabilities.
However, Molinaro quickly was absorbed into the Washington, DC conservative swamp. There is no clearer instance of him being pulled to the right than on the issue of abortion. Recently surfaced audio shows that Molinaro supports an abortion ban at 17 weeks despite protestations that he doesn’t support one at all. He’s voted to punish doctors who perform abortions with jail time. He’s also voted for an extreme amendment stripping abortion rights from service members and their families. Finally, Molinaro supports the misleading “crisis pregnancy centers” by voting to fund them federally.
Rep. Molinaro was influential in the rise of the obscure Rep. Mike Johnson to the Speaker chair once former Rep. Kevin McCarthy was booted. He gave a speech in support which helped unify the party behind him. The DCCC has already noted this fact and has tied Molinaro to Johnson and his unpopular policies. Also of note is that Molinaro voted twice for Jim Jordan as Speaker which calls his moderate credentials into question entirety.
Speaker Johnson and Jim Jordan aren’t the only extreme members of the GOP Rep. Marc Molinaro supports. Despite being in a swing seat President Biden carried by a 4-point margin in 2020, Molinaro endorsed Donald Trump . Furthermore, Molinaro jettisoned his principles and attacked the rule of law when Trump was convicted of 34 felony counts earlier this year. Most recently, when Trump allowed 9/11 conspiracy theorist Laura Loomer to travel in his entourage, Molinaro quibbled that she was disgraceful but stopped short of denouncing her.
Rep. Marc Molinaro may have been a moderate Republican once upon a time, but now he clearly is a part of the conservative swamp in DC. He only looks moderate compared to the rest of the extremists there.
How Can You Help?
Both candidates have tons of campaign contributions already. Riley has significantly outraised the incumbent in the Q2 reporting period - almost doubling the haul of Molinaro. Riley has $4M saved up, while Molinaro has $2.3M in the bank. No doubt both candidates will continue to show fundraising prowess in the Q3 reporting period which ends this month on September 30th.
This district is split amongst four media markets which makes it tough to gauge how much outside spending will have an impact here. Rest assured there will be plenty of resources on both sides to contest this district. Albany and Binghamton cover this district exclusively and have both sides and their allies spending over seven figures in total with the GOP spending slightly more. Syracuse and Utica overlap with New York’s 22nd district and could see some money spent for this district as well.
Canvassing season for this district is in full swing. Ithaca and Binghamton have events almost every day now. Endicott has events every Sunday and Thursday. It’s Johnson City on Wednesdays and Chenango County on Thursdays. There are so many more opportunities in such a vast district that I cannot list them all. Clicking on the Volunteer links at the top and bottom of this article takes you to all of the canvassing options.
Josh Riley is not neglecting phone banking either. Every Tuesday, Wednesday, and Thursday at 6PM is time for calling potential voters. The event does not appear to be virtual though which is a shame. If you are seeking to help from afar a donation may be the only way of helping now.
Josh Riley has experience in running on his side and a very recent poll shows him winning the rematch. The poll in question has a LOT of undecided voters so take it with a grain of salt. Whether it is fundraising prowess, oodles of outside money being spent here, or a slick canvassing operation it is clear that this race is a top target for Democrats.
Rep. Marc Molinaro used to be much more moderate than what his record is showing in DC. He has been sucked into the conservative swamp yet is still portraying himself as having not changed. He sits in the 10th most vulnerable House seat the GOP holds, so you would think he would break from the party line more frequently…
With the mudslinging season just about to start, it is clear those in New York’s 19th district better gear themselves up for a huge ad barrage. The question for Josh Riley will be whether or not he can take advantage of his second chance at this House seat.
Josh Riley for New York-19
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