I’ve lived in Arizona for 20+ years, and I’ve slowly watched our state transform into a purple swing state. Many people forget that Bill Clinton narrowly won Arizona in 1996. The writing was already on the wall for the gradual change to blue state status even back then.
A lot has happened in our state since 1996. I predict that we will be blue again with Kamala this year for the following reasons:
1. Arizona is a youthful state.
Many people think that Arizona is mainly populated with older people and retirees. They are certainly here, but overall, Arizona is a youthful state. The median age in Arizona is 38.8. As we’ve been seeing lately in the polls, the youth vote is swinging towards Kamala by large margins.
2. There is a large Hispanic population here.
32% of our population is Hispanic. Again, as we’ve seen in recent polls, this group of voters is swinging towards Kamala.
3. Our Native American voters vote democratic.
There are 22 federally recognized Native American tribes in Arizona. They make up a small percentage of the population, but they vote heavily democratic. These voters have been frequently credited for swinging elections in favor of democrats in Arizona. And more of them are being registered to vote for this election. We have some great diarists on Daily Kos who have written about the importance of the Native American vote in Arizona.
4. Maricopa County has grown exponentially over the past few years.
Home to Phoenix and its environs, Maricopa county was up until recently the fastest growing county in the US. It has now dropped down to the 4th fastest growing county in the nation. Where are those voters coming from?
The leading contributors to Maricopa County’s population inflows were California, with 36,965 individuals, followed by Washington, with 10,756, and Texas, with 9,538. It is important to note that these figures represent inflows and not net flows, highlighting only the number of people moving into Maricopa County.
I’m going to surmise that the majority of those new voters will vote for democrats. Maricopa is also the largest county in Arizona. However Maricopa swings on election night, so goes the state. This is why Trump had a hissy fit when Fox News called Arizona first for Biden in 2020 after those Maricopa County vote tallies came in. Watch for Maricopa County results on election night.
5. Independent voters here matter a lot.
Arizona’s electorate is roughly divided into thirds—1/3 Republicans, 1/3 Democrats, 1/3 Independents. In my experience, Arizona Independents are a proud and fiesty bunch. They take elections seriously, and they sway them here. Kamala is winning them now:
She also led the Republican nominee among the potentially key demographic in Arizona (51 percent to 45 percent) and North Carolina (48 percent to 46 percent)
6. Kari Lake is on the ballot--again.
Enough said. Trump’s handmaiden. She ran for Governor a few years ago and lost. She’s now running for the open Senate seat that Sinema is leaving. Our great democratic candidate, Ruben Gallego, is polling way ahead of her for this seat. She is pretty much despised in Arizona. She will lose handily, and she will take Trump down with her.
7. McCain Republicans do not like Trump and his minions.
There are still a lot of McCain Republicans in Arizona. The former Senator was well-liked and respected here. Trump’s trash talking about John McCain has earned him no favors in Arizona. McCain’s widow, Cindy McCain, endorsed Biden for President in 2020. We’re still waiting to see if she does the same for Kamala in this election. His daughter, Meghan McCain also hates Kari Lake:
Lake and Megan McCain, a political commentator and former host of The View, have long held a feud after Lake made a series of disparaging remarks about John McCain and the moderate Republican influence he still holds in Arizona.
And this:
"Kari Lake is trying to walk back her continued attacks on my Dad (& family) and all of his loyal supporters after telling them to 'get the hell out,'" McCain wrote in a social media post on Tuesday. "Guess she realized she can't become a Senator without us."
"We see you for who you are - and are repulsed by it," she added.
8. Abortion is also on the ballot in Arizona.
The nation was shocked by this:
The Arizona Supreme Court gave the go-ahead Tuesday to prepare to enforce a long-dormant law that bans nearly all abortions, drastically altering the legal landscape for terminating pregnancies in a state likely to have a key role in the presidential election.
The law predating Arizona’s statehood provides no exceptions for rape or incest and allows abortions only if the mother’s life is in jeopardy. Arizona’s highest court suggested doctors can be prosecuted under the 1864 law, though the opinion written by the court’s majority didn’t explicitly say that.
And pissed off Arizona voters responded in kind by submitting a huge number of voter signatures for an abortion ballot initiative (more than double what was needed to get on the ballot and the largest citizen initiative in Arizona’s history):
The Arizona Abortion Access Campaign, which aims to enshrine the procedure as a right in the state constitution, announced it filed 823,685 total signatures on Wednesday, the deadline for petition sheets to be handed over to the Arizona Secretary of State’s Office for review. The initiative needs just 383,923 verified voter signatures to be placed on the November ballot.
Dawn Penich, a spokeswoman for the campaign, touted it as a record-breaking achievement, and said it highlighted the popularity of the initiative among Arizonans.
“This is the most signatures ever submitted by a citizens’ initiative in Arizona history,” she said, to raucous cheering during a Wednesday morning news conference. “To put that into context: that means one in every five Arizona voters signed this petition.”
This ballot initiative will likely increase voters for Kamala.
9. We mainly vote by mail and love it.
Arizonans have eagerly adopted early voting by mail. We have about a month to submit our ballots before the election by mail. It is hugely popular and drives up turnout significantly:
Voting by mail remains incredibly popular in Arizona, with almost 90% of ballots in 2020 cast by mail and around 75% of voters signed up to receive early ballots in 2022.
And when we vote, we win.
10. The Mormons don’t like Trump.
About 6% of Arizona’s population is Mormon. The Mormons have many qualms with Trump. See Mitt Romney. The Mormon Mayor of Mesa, Arizona, (John Giles) also recently endorsed Kamala and spoke at the DNC convention:
The Mormon vote is up for grabs in Arizona.
11. Arizonans like our economy.
I thank Simon Rosenberg for this:
12. Arizona Republicans are in disarray.
There is infighting, and there are indictments for election interference. MAGA has thrown the Republican party into chaos here.
13. We like being part of the blue Southwestern Wall.
I’m purely speculating with this one, but I believe Arizonans want to be part of the club with our popular blue neighbors (New Mexico, Colorado, and Nevada). We need to join the blue Southwestern Wall.
14. Democrats control the levers of power in Arizona.
We have a democratic Governor (Katie Hobbs), a democratic Secretary of State who runs the elections (Adrian Fontes), and a democratic Attorney General (Kris Mayes). They will all be paying close attention to any election fuckery. We also have democratic Senator Mark Kelly and his lovely wife, Gabby Giffords. (And soon to be democratic Senator Ruben Gallego.)
There are probably other reasons I haven’t considered on why Arizona will be blue again this election, so please feel free to share.
Vote Harris/Walz!