Let’s dig into the new national AP/NORC favorability poll.
September 12-16. Online and telephone interviews using landlines and cell phones were conducted with 2,028 adults.
1) Which candidate voters think will win:
- Democrats: 64% think Harris will win, 6% think Trump will win (30% equal chance or unsure)
- Republicans: 58% think Trump will win, 10% think Harris will win (also 30% equal or unsure)
- Independent: 37% think Harris will win, 22% think Trump will win (40% equal or unsure)
2) On the question of which president would make a good president:
- Harris: 44% good, 41% not good (14% unsure)
- Trump: 36% good, 57% not good (6% unsure)
3) Favorability:
- Harris: 50% favorable, 44% unfavorable (5% unsure)
- Trump: 38% favorable, 58% unfavorable (3% unsure)
Here are some of my takeaways:
- Harris is +6 above water in favorability, while Trump is -20 underwater. That is an astounding favorability gap.
- While I know some people here worry about complacency, it’s actually a big positive that a larger number of voters think that Harris is on track to win. The perception of winning is motivating while thinking one’s candidate is likely to lose is demotivating (to donate, to volunteer, and to get to the polls). This finding might indicate that a larger percentage of Trump supporters will stay home.
- It’s possible that what’s holding back bigger polling leads for Harris lies in question #2 above. While she gets 50% favorability, only 44% say she would make a good president, with 14% being unsure. So people like her, but they aren’t yet sold on her as president. As these folks become more confident about her competence, her lead here will likely grow. The same could happen for Trump, but with only 6% unsure about him, he has much less room to expand his positives.
So while head-to-head polls can go up and down, when there is a 26% favorability gap and an 8% gap on the question of who would make a good president, it’s fair to predict that a majority of independents, moderates, and the currently-disengaged will probably break for Harris.
Moreover, these numbers are better for Harris compared to Hillary and Biden in the AP-NORC poll. Hillary was underwater at 43%-51% before the election and Biden had a similar favorability numbers to Harris at 48%-45%. This is just one more datapoint indicating that Harris is headed towards a strong finish.