This race is definitely one of the more important races for the House of Representatives. Polling shows a dead heat between Rep. Mary Peltola and her primary challenger, Nick Begich III. The stakes of this election couldn’t be higher!
Seattle has more power in the U.S. House of Representatives than the state of Alaska.
And yet, ahead of this year’s House elections, there’s as much at stake with Alaska’s race than all four of the contests in King County combined.
The vast majority of the 435 seats in the House are firmly Democratic or firmly Republican. Alaska is among a dwindling number of exceptions that could go in any direction.
More than that, it’s one of just five places in the country that voted for Donald Trump as president in 2020 yet elected a Democrat to the House in 2022.
The House is almost equally divided between Republicans and Democrats, and in a series of interviews and speeches throughout this year, current and former candidates for Alaska’s House seat have said the race could help decide which party controls the House.
In turn, that could affect the country’s direction on issues ranging from abortion to oil development to international affairs.
“We are down to the tiniest margins we’ve ever seen, like three or four people in the House and one in the Senate,” said Rep. Mary Peltola, the incumbent Democrat, in a January interview.
Control of the House will impact whoever wins the presidential race. A Republican-controlled House will support Donald Trump or act as a brake on Kamala Harris. The opposite is true if Democrats control the chamber.
The platform of “fish, family, and freedom” has served Rep. Mary Peltola well in her two previous Alaska races. However, she has never shared a ballot with former President Trump. The question for Peltola is whether her messaging is still potent ahead of the 2024 election.
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Rep. Mary Peltola is a potentially vulnerable Democratic incumbent. She barely cleared 50% in the Alaska Top 4 primary last month and the GOP has consolidated behind Nick Begich III. In the general election, Trump won Alaska 52.8% to 42.8%. That’s why I’ve included her in a group of 26 incumbents or open-seat races we are defending. #SaveTheMajority Fund.
Mary Peltola for Alaska-AL
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What’s the Big Idea?
THIS HOUSE RACE IS RATED AS A TOSSUP, with an R+8 PVI
2022 House results for Alaska.
Alaska is known for doing its own thing and being fiercely independent, which makes it a difficult state for the Lower 48 to handicap. There are some truisms about Alaska though, such as they tend to support the GOP at the presidential level. Alaska has only voted for a Democratic president once, in the 1964 Democratic landslide. Joe Biden did the best a Democratic candidate has done in Alaska since, with Trump winning 52.8% to 42.8%.
Another truism is that it tends to give their Congressional incumbents long tenures in Washington, especially if they bring the bacon home to the still-developing state. 2008 was an aberration when legendary Sen. Ted Stevens lost to Democrat Mark Begich. 2014 corrected that, when Sen. Dan Sullivan returned the delegation to GOP control by beating Begich. This state also is home to Sen. Lisa Murkowski, who won a write-in campaign in 2010 to continue representing this state in Congress.
A special election occurred in 2022 because longtime Rep. Don Young (who was crazy as hell yet still respectable) died suddenly. Young was the Dean of the House, having served Alaska since a 1973 special election. Mary Peltola made history as the first Alaska Native to make it to Congress. She narrowly won the 2022 special election against famed quitter Sarah Palin 51.5% to 48.5%, or about 5000 votes out of 189k cast. In the ranked-choice voting rounds, third-place candidate Republican Nick Begich III was eliminated and most of his votes were spoiled. About 1/3 of the remaining votes went to Peltola which was enough to win.
In the general election in 2022, Peltola won again over Sarah Palin, Nick Begich III, and Libertarian Chris Bye. She garnered 48.7% of the vote in the first round — a healthy place to start in a ranked-choice voting system. Bye was eliminated first which got Peltola to 49.2%. Begich III was once again the third place finisher, only this time most of his votes went to Palin. It wasn’t enough though as Peltola won 55.0% to 45.0%. 263k votes were initially cast and 17k of them were spoiled which once again made a huge difference.
Peltola received 50.9% of the vote in the initial round to decide who advances to the Top 4 primary. This would seem to be a strong position, but there are some caveats. Only 108k people voted in the primary (compared to 353k voting in the 2020 general election) with the areas that cast the least number of ballots being the most conservative areas of the state. One time frontrunner Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom (finished in 3rd) and 4th place finisher Matthew Salisbury, both Republicans, withdrew to consolidate around Nick Begich III. When that happened, state law promoted the 5th and 6th place finishers to the ballot. Alaska Independence Party member John Wayne Howe and nominal Democrat Eric Hafner (a felon who’s locked up in New York) are now on the ballot.
The state is very slowly trending in the blue direction, as the Anchorage and Fairbanks metro areas grow and switch allegiances to the Democratic Party. Mary Peltola, by winning both 2022 elections, shows that there is a possible emerging Democratic coalition in the state. Sen. Lisa Murkowski relies on basically the same coalition for her re-election efforts, and it is the coalition that runs the Alaska legislature.
Here’s where this Alaska Race will be won.
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Anchorage Metro Area: This metro area is divided politically, but it shifted in the direction of Democratic candidates in 2020. Peltola has a base in Anchorage, and she had better hope that there is a gargantuan turnout from the friendly portions of the city.
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Fairbanks Metro Area: This metro area is even more sharply divided, with portions of it being amongst the most liberal while others are deeply conservative. Peltola needs a strong effort from the right portions of the city to have a chance at this thing.
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Alaska Native Vote: The bush is home to many different Alaskan Native tribes, and they tend to be Democratic-leaning in nature. Peltola being an Alaska Native candidate could spark a supercharged vote for her, which she will need to pull off another win in this state.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Kenai Area: This part of the state did surprisingly well for Peltola, but in prior presidential elections, the result was heavily Republican. Peltola made inroads in an area I didn’t think possible, which shows how Alaska is difficult for an outsider to handicap.
Rep. Mary Peltola: She’s Pro-Fish
Peltola is one of the most moderate Democrats, especially on energy and gun safety issues.
Rep. Mary Sattler Peltola was born in Anchorage, Alaska in 1973. She is a member of the Yup’ik nation and her true name is Akalleq (one who rolled). Her mother is also Yup’ik and lived in the communities of Kwethluk, Tuntutuliak, Platinum, and Bethel. Her father was a German-American bush pilot and teacher who dragged young Mary around the state when he campaigned with former Rep. Don Young.
Like many Alaskans seeking higher education, Peltola had to go out-of-state to seek it. She studied elementary education at Northern Colorado University for two years. She then transferred home and took courses at various Alaska-based institutions of higher learning while working as a herring and salmon technician for the Alaska Department of Fish and Game. While still in college, Peltola won the Miss National Congress of American Indians pageant performing traditional Yup’ik dances in traditional clothing. Because of this win, Peltola spent a summer traveling around being a role model for her people.
Her first experience in politics was as an intern in the Alaska state legislature in 1996. She ran for a seat in the Bethel region but lost to the incumbent Ivan Ivan in the Democratic primary by 56 votes. She worked briefly as a reporter until she successfully challenged Ivan in the 1998 Democratic primary. As a state representative, Peltola was instrumental in rebuilding the Bush Caucus which seeks to represent rural Alaskans of both parties.
Once leaving the Alaska state legislature, Peltola worked quite a few local jobs in the Bethel area. She was the manager of community development for the Donlin Creek Mine from 2008 to 2014. She served on the Bethel City Council from 2011 to 2013. She was a lobbyist in Alaska from 2015 to 2017. After 2016, she served as executive director of the Kuskokwim River Inter-Tribal Fish Commission. Finally, she was a judge on the Orutsararmiut Native Council’s tribal court starting in 2020. Peltola clearly assists her community in myriad ways!
Rep. Mary Peltola is one of the most moderate Democratic members of our caucus which is to be expected from a district that is the most Republican-leaning out of every district we currently hold. She prioritizes the needs of her constituents above adherence to the majority of the Democratic House Conference - gun safety and energy policy. She is a rare Democratic candidate who has an “A” rating from the NRA and consistently votes against gun safety measures. Peltola also lobbied heavily for the approval of the ConocoPhillips Willow Project which was approved by the Biden administration.
Peltola still follows the “fish, family, freedom” agenda when it comes to voting for Democratic priorities. She is an advocate for a better balance of fishing practices. She blames the Magnuson-Stevens Act for the collapse of Alaskan fisheries and would stress better environmental practices to allow fisheries to recover instead of being economically exploited.
When it comes to “family”, Peltola stresses the benefit of unions in Alaska and the need for good-paying jobs in the state. She wants to pass the PRO Act and a Paycheck Fairness Act to better help families struggling to get by. She would also reinstate the expanded Child Tax Credit for families. In addition, she works to address issues more pressing in Alaska than elsewhere, like insanely high food prices and a shortage of quality housing.
When it comes to “freedom”, for Peltola that means being progressive on social issues such as abortion rights and LGBTQ+ rights. Peltola has consistently voted against measures to restrict abortion rights and would codify Roe through the Women’s Health Protection Act if given a chance. That is why Reproductive Freedom for All has endorsed her campaigns for office. Peltola voted for the Respect for Marriage Act and against a measure that would “bully” (her words) transgender teens for playing sports associated with their assigned sex rather than their gender identity.
Education is one last issue where Peltola has a good record going back to her days in the state legislature. She has consistently fought to preserve Alaskan Native languages from extinction and opposed implementation of NCLB for that very reason. She looks to increase teacher recruitment and pay as Alaskan teaching jobs (especially in the Alaskan Bush) are often difficult to fill. Finally, Peltola looks to use federal funds to expand educational opportunities in the state so that Alaskan youth need not travel out-of-state for a quality education - a problem that causes many of them to never return to the state.
Rep. Mary Peltola isn’t by any means perfect on the issues. However, her “fish, family, and freedom” agenda makes her a perfect fit for Alaska and a strong candidate to have a long tenure in Washington, DC.
Nick Begich III: The Begich Black Sheep
The Begich family leans Democratic, but this black sheep of the family is a member of the GOP.
Nick Begich III was born in Anchorage, and is a member of the Begich family in Alaskan politics. His grandfather was a Congressman until he perished in a plane crash and his uncle was a one-term US Senator. Unlike his relatives, Begich is a registered Republican and thus is considered the black sheep of the family.
Just like many other Alaskans, Begich pursued higher education in the Lower 48. He graduated from Baylor University with a bachelor’s degree and from Indiana University with an MBA. He worked for Ford Motor Company for a while until he returned to Alaska in 2004. Once back in Alaska he started his own businesses (FarShore Partners and Dashfire) to provide capital to new businesses. He is also a member of Begich Capital Partners. Unfortunately, his businesses have a better track record hiring overseas employees than ones in Alaska. Other relevant experiences include work with the Alaska Policy Forum, the Club for Growth, and Matanuska Telecom Association.
This race will be more difficult for Peltola because Begich has many of the same issue positions as she does. He has even decried the caustic political environment that is perlocating from the current form of the GOP. He is trying to position himself as the heir to the Rep. Don Young legacy despite knifing him in the back by running against his old boss.
One issue where Begich differs from Peltola is abortion rights. Begich considers himself “pro-life” and would allow states to pass total abortion bans. He is trying to muddle his position on a national abortion ban by claiming it should be left to the states. However, his actions on medication abortion show his hypocrisy on the issue as he pushes for restrictions. He even espouses fake information on medication abortion “reversal”, which isn’t a thing!
Another issue where Begich is open to attacks is protecting Social Security and Medicaid expansion. Working with the Alaska Policy Forum, he called for the rollback of Medicaid expansion in the state. He has called Social Security a “Ponzi scheme” that needs cuts to survive. It is clear Alaskans cannot count on Begich to protect their hard-earned benefits from GOP attacks.
Finally, Begich parrots the party line on education. While Peltola respects teachers, Begich would enact the so-called “Parents’ Bill of Rights,” basically a cudgel for conservative parents to attack the curriculum. While there is nothing wrong with promoting private and homeschool options, Begich would likely support budget-draining voucher schemes as yet another attack on public schools.
Begich III is different from his more famous relatives because he is conservative while his relatives are moderates. This is why he is considered a black sheep in his family.
How Can You Help?
Rep. Mary Peltola has been posting gargantuan fundraising hauls such as a $2.1M haul in the Q2 reporting period. Challenger Nick Begich III hasn’t been doing as impressively - only raising about $310k during the same time period. It is clear that Peltola will win the money race hands down.
The fundraising disparity is why the NRCC and its allies are spending heavily here and the DCCC and its allies don’t have to spend a dime. Now that reservations are turning into actual ad buys, I will reference what has been spent already instead of what could be spent. The GOP independent expenditures for this race total $1.06M so far with undoubtedly more to come.
Alaska is such a huge state that reaching many potential voters through canvassing and phone banking is prohibitively expensive or is an ineffective means of voter contact. This is especially true in the Alaskan Bush where Peltola will be counting on their votes for another victory. Even though Alaska is a cheap media market for ads, it is an expensive and time-consuming place to campaign in for that reason.
That’s not to say that canvassing and phone banking aren’t important for the Peltola campaign. There are quite a few cities in which canvassing is still an effective use of time. Anchorage, Fairbanks, and Juneau are large enough cities to have door-knocking operations. There are also efforts in Wasilla, Eagle River, and Skagway.
There isn’t a virtual phone banking option at the present moment so only those in Alaska can help Peltola out. Calls are being made from Fairbanks, Juneau, and Wasilla.
If you live in Anchorage, there is one more way to help out the Peltola campaign. There is a fundraiser for the Alaska Federation of Natives on October 17th with Rep. Mary Peltola as the headliner. You can choose to donate online before the event or by check if you plan on attending. All the details are in the event link.
Rep. Mary Peltola still has the inside track for winning this election. Her positions on the issues are perfect for Alaska even if they are sometimes anathema to progressives. However, it is clear that she will have a rougher go of it now that her opponent is not Sarah Palin. She needs to be careful in a seat Trump won by 10 points and she sits in the 22nd most vulnerable district held by a Democratic candidate. That’s an artifact of her blowout win in the third round of instant runoff voting in 2022 and she is probably much more at risk than that.
Nick Begich III has his last name and the lean of the state in his favor. This is his third run for this office so his name recognition is also fairly high - though not as high as Palin’s was. By taking many of the same issue positions as Peltola, Begich has positioned himself to be a threat. However, he does have weaknesses to exploit as well.
It is clear Peltola will try to use the same playbook that led to her successes in the 2022 cycle of elections. It may not work because there’s consolidation behind Begich III, less of a chance of spoilage because the population knows how to do instant runoff voting, and larger turnout for Trump. She may have to rely on incumbency, her Alaskan native status, and more libertarian issue positions to win.
The question for her is whether or not her message has the same potency now as it did then.
Mary Peltola for Alaska-AL
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