Rep. Lauren Boebert was such a lightning rod that she made a rather Republican-leaning district vulnerable. This was the closest House race in 2022 and that prompted the controversial incumbent to pack her bags and skedaddle across the state to the redder 4th district.
Fleeing a tough reelection bid in the district where she lives, Colorado Republican Rep. Lauren Boebert is moving from the mountains to the plains, in the hopes of finding conservative pastures green enough to salvage her place in Congress.
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After Boebert eked out a victory by just 546 votes in 2022, her home district moved from Republican-leaning to a toss-up for 2024 — threatening the GOP’s already threadbare control of the U.S. House.
The narrow margin in Congress leaves both major parties fighting fiercely for every available seat in 2024. Boebert’s move to the new district, where she’ll have to take on at least nine other Republicans for her party’s nomination, probably gives the GOP a better chance to win both.
That’s part of her reason for switching, she said in a phone interview, but she gave another reason for jumping into a race that’s already considered safely Republican: “There is need for my voice in Congress.”
A more normal Republican, attorney Jeff Hurd, is facing off against the politician that scared Boebert away in Adam Frisch. However, this is a case of be careful what you wish for because Boebert is assured of her place in Congress now and this district isn’t as appealing an opportunity as it was before.
The question for Adam Frisch is whether the absence of Boebert shuts the door on his chances of flipping this district.
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Jeff Hurd is part of what I am calling the #MAGADozen. These Republicans in GOP-leaning swing districts are full-throated MAGA supporters and can be beaten. Adam Frisch is one of the challengers I am fundraising for.
Adam Frisch for Colorado-3
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What’s the Big Idea?
THIS HOUSE RACE IS RATED AS LIKELY REPUBLICAN, with an R+7 PVI
This district is usually represented by moderate-to-conservative Democrats and conservative Republicans. For instance, party-switching conservative Democrat Ben Nighthorse Campbell was the representative of this district from 1987 to 1993. He was replaced by a member of the GOP, Scott McInnis, for a dozen years. Another moderate Democrat took over in 2004 by the name of John Salazar. During the end of the 2000s this district looked good for us.
The Tea Party red wave of 2010 changed the district, as unheralded Scott Tipton upset Rep. John Salazar 50%-46% as conservative districts around the country bolted from the Democratic Party. Tipton never had any particularly close races during his 10-year tenure in the House of Representatives. Sure, there were decent challengers but Tipton prevailed rather easily in the end.
Tipton’s tenure in the House was cut short in a huge upset in the 2020 primary by Lauren Boebert. There were various factors in this upset, including the feeling that Tipton was insufficiently loyal to Trump despite there being very few votes showing that. Boebert went on to win the general election with a comfortable margin and it seemed the far-right Trump fanatic would quickly become entrenched.
Adam Frisch had other ideas and ran a spirited campaign against Boebert in 2022. Because of the nature of the incumbent, Frisch had no issues raising money as resistlibs everywhere wished to see Boebert knocked off. The prognosticators gave Frisch no chance of defeating the incumbent. I didn’t even write about the race as a part of my 2022 series on the midterm elections. But it turned out to be a real barnburner, with Boebert winning via the closest House race in the nation. She only won 50.1%-49.9%, or 546 votes.
As discussed in the opener, Boebert bailed on the district to run in the 4th district near the start of this year. She may not have needed to do so, given that 327k people voted in 2022 and 439k people voted in 2020. Frisch faces a different Republican in 2024 and having Trump atop the ballot. Those factors make it a much tougher race this time around — hence the more pessimistic rating.
Here’s where this 3rd district race will be won.
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Ski Towns: Only a few ski towns are found in the district (Aspen, Gunnison County, parts of Eagle County) but what is present is overwhelmingly blue. This is the home base of Frisch and he needs a strong performance in this section of the district to have a chance of winning.
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Pueblo: This county has moved from a reliably Democratic county to a swing county that Trump could possibly win. Frisch won 53% of the vote in 2022 here, but he will have to do better than that to carry the district in 2024.
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Southwestern Colorado: There are a mix of red counties and blue counties in the Durango area. La Plata County (Durango) is key and Frisch needs to win more than 63% of the vote to win the district. The rest of the counties are smaller and Frisch needs to keep the margins respectable.
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Garfield County: This county rejected Boebert in 2022 and the hope for Frisch is that it rejects Hurd in 2024. He won more than 57% of the vote in this swing county that Biden barely carried in 2020. He will have to repeat that result in 2024 to have a shot at winning.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
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Grand Junction Area: These cities (Grand Junction, Montrose, Delta) are the heart of the GOP vote in the district. Boebert underperformed in this area but still did just well enough to eke out a win. Frisch really needs to keep down the margins in these counties!
- Rio Grande Valley: This area has a mixture of rancher, farmers, and Latine workers. It is a swing area with counties that barely voted for Biden and counties that barely voted for Trump. Obviously, Frisch will have to hope that he wins all of the swing counties here.
- I-25 Corridor: South of Pueblo is included in the district and there are two critical counties in the area. Huerfano County must be won by Frisch and Las Animas County must be kept close. A repeat of the 2022 results may be enough for him to win this time if he does well elsewhere.
Adam Frisch: A Solo Act
Adam Frisch was born in 1967 and lived on the Fort Peck Indian Reservation until he was five years old. The Jewish family moved to Minneapolis where his father became an OB-GYN. Adam became involved in ski racing until an injury forced him to retire. He eventually graduated from the University of Colorado with a degree in economics. Frisch moved to Manhattan to become a currency trader which allowed him to travel the world.
Frisch eventually moved back to Aspen and became a part of the financial review committee from 2005 to 2011. He eventually won a seat on the Aspen City Council in 2011 and held it until 2019. He is responsible for the controversial “Lift One” development referendum which split the community. This referendum barely passed the voters but it caused no lasting damage to Frisch’s political ambitions.
Frisch has logged countless miles in this large district and is focused on rural issues and appealing to Western Slope voters with his family history of ranching. He will still be strong on agricultural and ranching issues if elected. He will fight against unfair eminent domain practices, try to save family operations from corporate consolidation, and promote the right to repair equipment for each farmer/rancher.
Frisch will also be strong on water issues if elected to Congress. Water rights are arcane but they inflame some of the hottest debates out west. Some priorities in this area include retaining more of the Colorado River water for Colorado interests and prohibiting foreign investors from buying water rights. He’s also seeking to keep watersheds healthy and to repair aging water infrastructure.
One issue where Frisch is sure to stand apart from Jeff Hurd is on abortion rights. Frisch is unabashedly pro-choice and will be a vote to codify Roe into law. He also mentions that IVF and birth control are increasingly at risk due to the extreme nature of the Supreme Court and the GOP representatives in Congress. He comes from a family of OB-GYNs so the issue is personal for him. He is also running with an abortion rights referendum in Colorado which should help his cause.
Frisch is going to be moderate and vote the district on many issues. For instance, he sees himself as a “pro-business, pro-energy, and pragmatic” Democrat in the mold of John Salazar. While he supports renewable energy production, he also supports increased oil and gas drilling. He is for modernization of the infrastructure in the district as a way to attract more business to the area.
Frisch will be a solo act and do his own thing while in Congress. He’ll be a lot like his potential fellow Blue Dogs in Jared Golden, Mary Peltola, and Marie Gluesenkamp Perez. A vote that isn’t reliable for all of our priorities but who will still be loyal when his vote is actually needed.
Jeff Hurd: Boebert Without the Baggage
Jeff Hurd has lived in Grand Junction his entire life (except for when he received his college degrees). He received a bachelor’s degree from Notre Dame University and a JD from Columbia Law School. He is running a branch of the Ireland Stapleton Pryor & Pascoe PC law firm in Grand Junction. This is his first run for political office thus he has no prior political experience.
The main issue where Hurd can be attacked is abortion rights. In a recent debate, he was evasive with his answer on the issue, stating that he is “pro-life but with exceptions”. He did not state how he would vote on the abortion rights referendum but it can be inferred that he would vote against it.
Another issue is who is backing Hurd. The Koch network is behind much of his campaign and they are looking to have a reliable ally in the seat as opposed to the erratic Boebert. While Hurd talks a good game on some issues (almost the same pitches as Frisch!), this support comes with strings attached. For instance, his pro-energy policy includes coal while Frisch would phase it out.
Boebert’s antics may be amusing or not to you, but her votes in Congress were not amusing in the slightest. Jeff Hurd will vote almost exactly like Boebert did except he doesn’t have the additional baggage that the job-hopping incumbent had. That should be enough to win.
How Can You Help?
Adam Frisch has seen the avalanche of donations dry up in recent times. Don’t get me wrong as he is still raking in money hand over fist but there is a clear difference in facing Boebert and facing Hurd. Frisch still raised a hefty $1.6M in the Q2 fundraising period and has a healthy $3.9M cash on hand. Jeff Hurd has a lot less money but his fundraising should pick up now that the primary is in the rear view mirror.
There are no outside entities spending for ads in this race, so it is just between Frisch and Hurd. The cash disparity and higher name recognition from his first run gives Frisch some advantages in that department so if the race actually is close expect the GOP to parachute in at the last minute. Then again, they could think that if this race is lost then the House is lost as well and not bother.
Frisch is starting his canvassing and phone banking operation tomorrow, and boy is it massive. He’s covering every corner of the district on the phones and with canvassing. That’s what a ton of campaign funds can afford you! Some critical areas for this district (as covered above) include Pueblo, Glenwood Springs/Carbondale, and many more. This is such a vast district that there are countless canvassing and phone banking operations going on simultaneously.
Adam Frisch has a lot of work to do in order to win Colorado’s 3rd district. He has to hold the voters that were repulsed by Boebert’s antics and also find new voters to counteract the ones that should come out to support Trump. He has the campaign funds to be a threat but the lean of the district may be too much despite it trending the way of Democrats in both 2020 and 2022.
Jeff Hurd is not Lauren Boebert despite almost assuredly voting the same way as the much maligned far-right legislator. That should be enough for him to win this district by a comfortable but not commanding margin. The Downballot rates this as the 27th most vulnerable seat the GOP holds so there’s still a chance of victory.
The question is whether the absence of Boebert shuts the door on Frisch’s chances of flipping this district.
Adam Frisch for Colorado-3
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Here is the Defeat the MAGA Dozen Fund on ActBlue! These 15 incumbent members of the GOP are MAGA Republicans residing in swing districts. The challengers are all strong and can win in these tougher districts. Please donate and then share a link to this site on your social media! #MAGADozen