The 3 Baltic States — Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia — are all very much aware that they are Putin’s next target if he wins in Ukraine. So they are understandably nervous about our election, as their future is at stake as much as ours.
We just wound up a 10-day trip to the Baltic capitals — Vilnius, Riga, and Tallinn — and are now in Helsinki, so I thought it a good time to report on what I saw and heard.
One local quoted to us Putin’s 2005 claim that the collapse of the Soviet empire “was the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the century”. Not World War I, or World War II, or the Holocaust, and certainly not Stalin’s planned famines, but the breakup of the Russian/Soviet Empire. He means to restore it, including not just Ukraine but the Baltic States. And Byelorussia — but he already owns it in all but name. And Central Asia, and Poland, and anything else he can. He wants to make Russia as powerful, as respected, and as feared, as the old Soviet Union was.
The Baltic states are doing more than watching Russia in Ukraine; they are acting. All 3 states, but especially Lithuania (being the closest) have taken in many many Ukrainian refugees. Ukrainian flags fly on official buildings in all 3 capitals, and in many other places. I didn’t get a chance to visit the Russian embassy in Vilnius, but in Riga and Tallinn, there are protest signs and messages — some quite nasty — in front of and facing the embassies there. (See the photo on top for an example.)
These are not exactly actions calculated to make the Russian bear play nice. Putin already hates the Baltic states, Lithuania in particular, because their declarations of independence in 1991 are what helped trigger the final breakup of the old Soviet Union. (It’s more complicated, but that’s a decent short summary.) Yet the Lithuanians, the Latvians, the Estonians are speaking and acting in ways that will anger Putin even more. Their love of freedom, pride in their heritage, and sense of responsibility all demand it of them. In one city, we visited volunteers making camouflage netting for Ukrainian soldiers, and even helped (or tried to help) weave a few strands. More important than trying to help, though, was our showing up, hearing their stories, and encouraging them to persevere. They are spending as much as 5% of their GDP on their defense (the exact numbers are not clear). They are preparing for war. One expert told us that it is an open secret that their plan is to hold out for 72 hours, long enough for the West to respond.
Which we will be obliged to do. All 3 nations have been members of NATO since 2004, and entitled to Article 5 protection which proclaims that an attack on one NATO member is an attack on all, and that all will respond to such an attack with all means necessary, including armed force.
This is why I called the Baltic States the canary in the coal mine in my title. They are members of NATO, while Ukraine is not. If Putin attacks any of them, the United States is obligated to come to their defense. Putin is very well aware of this, and so will only attack if he has calculated that we will not respond as we ought. When we read reports about Russian interference in our elections, we must understand what Putin is trying to accomplish: the destruction of NATO so that it will not be able to respond when he invades a NATO ally like Lithuania, or Latvia, or Estonia.
We are with a group of Americans and not supposed to discuss US politics, but I managed several private talks with locals, including a diplomatic contact. All of them are very aware of our upcoming election and very concerned about what it will mean for them if Trump manages somehow to regain power. They know very well what he’s had to say about our NATO responsibilities.
The US has generally been fortunate in its wars (the Civil War being a major exception). We have not had to fight on our home ground; when we go to war, we fight on other people’s land. That allows an illusion of safety which we can no longer afford. It’s not just the missile threat; it’s cyber threats and terrorism. A Latvian reporter for the New York Times wrote the other day about how Putin is able to reach out anywhere in the world to attack individuals who oppose him (or who even decline to support him by joining the army): Putin Is Doing Something Almost Nobody Is Noticing
There are also the hundreds of thousands of Russians who left home because they did not want to have anything to do with Vladimir Putin’s war or were forced out, accused of not embracing it enough. These low-profile dissenters are subjected to surveillance and kidnappings, too. Yet their repression happens in silence, away from the spotlight and often with the tacit consent or inadequate prevention of the countries to which they have fled.
It’s a terrifying thing: The Kremlin is hunting down ordinary people across the world, and nobody seems to care.
One cannot travel to the Baltic States without becoming aware of just how fragile our freedoms really are. ALL our freedoms — for if the Baltic States fall, so too will the rest of Europe, and so too will we.
It is critical to defeat Trump and elect Harris for many reasons, including reproductive rights, freedom of religion, freedom of speech, freedom to dissent, freedom to think. In addition to that, it is critical to stop Trump in order to stop Putin (with the recognition that Putin will still keep trying even if he fails to put Trump in power). In the United States, this can seem a bit abstract. Here in the Baltic States, it is much more immediate and real.
