The electoral college map is not easy for Vice President Kamala Harris, but it is much more challenging for Donald Trump. Since after 1988, the Republican Party nominee for president has won Pennsylvania only once. 538 says Donald Trump is ahead by 1 point in Arizona and by 1 point in Georgia, tied in North Carolina, and behind by a small margin in Nevada, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, and NE 2. Mark Robinson's drag could be enough to sink Donald Trump in North Carolina. His top staff have quit or plan to , Republican Governors Association, RGA, has said that they won't invest in his campaign any more , and he is behind by ten to seventeen points in recent polls and can't get out of the low 40s at his best. Ticket split voting is less common now in this era of negative partisanship. It was uncommon in 2016 and it has become even more rare since then. With Mark Robinson losing badly in polls, he may be on his way to an historic defeat as he is down 17 points in the most recent CNN poll after the new revelations about him . So, below I list reasons why if it's close in a state, she likely wins.
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It's difficult to imagine the voter who voted for Donald Trump for president, but finds Mark Robinson too morally repugnant to support. At least, so far, what we know of Mark Robinson is not criminal. At least Mark Robinson didn't attempt a coup or violate the Espionage Act or engage in other criminal behavior. How is Donald Trump morally superior to Mark Robinson? How many Trump voters will vote Stein or skip the governor on the ballot? With ticket splitting becoming less common, then it's not hard to envision this costing Donald Trump enough votes, especially after the strong endorsement and saying that he has gotten to know Mark Robinson, to lose North Carolina. If you're voting for Stein, then why would you not vote for Vice President Kamala Harris?
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Let's consider the electoral college:
If Vice President Harris wins North Carolina and Nevada and Michigan and Wisconsin and NE 2, then Donald Trump winning Pennsylvania alone would not be sufficient for him to win the electoral college vote. If she wins North Carolina and Nevada and Michigan and Wisconsin and NE 2 and he wins Arizona, Georgia and Pennsylvania, she wins 273 electoral college votes.
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If she wins Pennsylvania and Michigan and Wisconsin and Nevada and NE 2, but he wins Arizona and Georgia and North Carolina, then she wins 276 electoral college votes.
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If she wins Georgia and Nevada and Michigan and Wisconsin and NE 2, but he wins Arizona and North Carolina and Pennsylvania, then she wins 273 electoral college votes.
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If she wins Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and Nevada and NE 2 but he wins Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, she wins 270 electoral college votes.
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Basically with Michigan, Wisconsin, Nevada, and NE 2, any of Georgia, North Carolina, or Pennsylvania ends Donald Trump's electoral career.
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Or if she wins Michigan and Wisconsin and Pennsylvania and NE 2 but he wins Nevada, Arizona, Georgia, and North Carolina, she wins 270 electoral college votes and with it, the presidential election and ends his career.
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Right now, all these states are close and it kind of seems like the vast majority of the swing states will move together at the end. I find it quite likely that the undecided voters will mostly break for Vice President Kamala Harris! People have known him for about nine years and he has 100% name recognition. If they are not yet supporting him, they really don't like him. She is less well known and she is near parity in job approval ratings whereas he is quite a bit underwater. I think that voters will want to put a new, younger, sharper, empathetic, more intelligent person of a diverse background as a woman of color in as president. Finally we will have somebody in office as president who doesn't see the world from the point of view of an old, rich, powerful, straight white man. That's change!
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Again, if it's close, she wins for the following reasons:
The polls have improved and we are likely doing even better than the polls say
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Vice President Harris raised $47 million in the 24 hours after the debate
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New York Times reports how the debate may widen the disparity in how well the two candidates campaigns raise funds
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Vice President Harris' campaign raised $361 million in September, more than three times the amount raised by the Trump campaign
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Vice President Harris' entrance into this election lit a fuse and attracted a large number of new volunteers
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Vice President Harris has a much more muscular ground game than Donald Trump
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Donald Trump is relying upon a risky strategy, outsourcing work normally performed by volunteers
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I STRONGLY RECOMMEND you visit this site because polls alone are not going to give you as comprehensive an understanding of where the election is. This website tracks new voter registration.
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This trend of increased voter registration was seen early on
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Taylor Swift's endorsement led 338,000 to use a government voter registration Website
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Vice President Harris leads in enthusiasm among voters
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When we take a comprehensive look at this election, we consider voter enthusiasm and voter registration data and her far superior voter turnout ground operation and her massive amount of volunteers and her enormous fundraising advantage and her decisive debate victory and how she has narrowed what should have been large leads in red states, then we put that with the polls and she probably has about a five percentage point lead now.
