I have to believe that while MVP Harris and Governor Walz are both in net positive favorability territory, and while Senator Vance and convicted felon Trump are woefully under water in that regard, the national polling outlook remains too close to call.
I have to believe that despite having been declared the worst president ever by a panel of presidential historians, Trump is remembered as uniquely successful.
I have to believe that even with over 100 prominent republicans, including numerous former members of
his own cabinet, labeling Trump as unfit to serve and a danger to democracy itself, that roughly half of the electorate don’t care.
I have to believe that the Harris campaign’s overwhelming advantages in fundraising and field organization is completely immaterial. That everything is locked in and all of the ad buys, social media activity, and campaign rallies are pointless. That nothing can move the needle.
I have to believe that despite the spikes in voter registration that we saw following Harris’ elevation to the top of the ticket, following the convention, following the debate and Taylor Swift endorsement, that the race remains stubbornly stable.
I have to believe that, in the post Dobbs environment, Harris has a narrower gender gap than Clinton or Biden.
I have to believe that in the era of catastrophic fallout from global climate change that Harris is underperforming with generation Z.
I have to believe that in swing states like Arizona and North Carolina, MAGA candidates for Senator and Governor are facing monumental defeats while the MAGA standard bearer is trending toward victory.
I have to believe that despite all of the indictments, convictions and financial penalties Trump has an aura of invincibility. That despite all of his failures he’s seen as a success. That despite his obvious deterioration he’s still seen as strong.
Maybe all of this is, in fact, true. But I don’t believe any of it.
