I don’t think polls are all that useful for exact numbers, but I do think they can be useful to show movement, or where there are openings for one party or another. A couple of items caught my eye.
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Naturally, the Harris/Walz campaign has been concentrating on the 7 closest swing states, with Florida and Texas as stretch goals. Given the amount of vote suppression in both those states, it’ll be harder than it should be, but it’s worth making some investment there, especially with two high-profile Senate seats also in play. It would be so awesome to never have to hear from Ted Cruz or Rick Scott again.
I don’t know the logistics of media markets in Alaska, but I think it’s worth a look. A small number of votes can swing an election there, and it’s been trending closer over the last few election cycles. Their sole House member is a popular Democrat, Mary Peltola. The last poll I can find is from April: 50% TFG to 43% Biden, but we don’t know how the switch to Harris may have changed that — most likely for the better.
The other sleeper is a Senate race in Nebraska. Dems are fielding a candidate for the special election to fill Ben Sasse’s seat, but not for the regularly scheduled Senate election against GQP incumbent Deb Fischer. Independent candidate Dan Osborn is in a statistical tie with Fischer (38% Osborn, 39% Fischer). Osborn has refused to work with the Democratic Party during the campaign, so technically the Dems will be fielding a (still unnamed) write-in. If Osborn is elected, he may wind up being another Sinema or Manchin. But in Nebraska, that may be the best we can realistically do, and his platform includes “keeping the government out of our private lives” on issues ranging from abortion to legalizing pot. I wouldn’t expect him to support dropping the filibuster, expanding SCOTUS, or granting statehood to DC. But in a worst-case scenario that would otherwise leave us with 49 Senators, he’d keep the Senate functional.
Anyone have a House or Governor race, or other place you think we can expand the map? Let’s hear about it.
And then let’s volunteer, donate, call, door-knock, and GET OUT THE VOTE!
On to Top Comments!
A cornucopia of comments submitted by belinda ridgewood:
Two comments from Greg Dworkin's APR this morning:
In response to Denise Oliver Velez's daily roundup of political cartoons, rugbymom shot down the idea that Democrats are somehow oblivious to the threats to this election.
Meanwhile, pelagicray commented about an article on mosquito-borne disease and, the reason for topness imho, showed how to make a simple mosquito trap from a 2-liter bottle.
In annieli's diary about today's school shooting in Georgia, quarter incher linked to a terrific resource about gun violence.
And finally, in kos's diary on Trump's floundering campaign, MartyM hearkened back to another floundering GOP campaign, and BigIrish310 went back to the Python-based source for evidence.
Highlighted by mariposa06:
Blueoregon has a short-not-sweet description of TFG.
Top mojo, courtesy of mik:
