We in Good News are totally weirded out by the stupid MSM insistence on horse-race polling, when we have REAL data to go on. Actual, actionable numbers for the ground game in the critical swing states, especially PA. As Rachel Maddow always puts it
Never mind what people say. Look at what they do.
What are WE doing? Registering to vote, donating, volunteering, GOTV, organizing, Running For Something, you name it.
TL;DR
Yes, we can. Yes, we know how. Yes, we are doing it.
Pennsylvania
is where the action is in this campaign. Observers have noted that the Keystone State is the keystone of the Harris/Walz campaign. Without it, Rs have no hope. Without it, Ds have some other paths to 270 Electoral Votes, but it’s harder.
As noted below, there are 36 Democratic field offices in Pennsylvania to 6 for Republicans.
Staff: 1500 vs 300
Volunteers: 400,000 vs 14,000
Ad spending is currently about equal in PA and GA, but not elsewhere. Harris, Walz, and Joe Biden have been campaigning in Pennsylvania.
OK. So what’s the target? How many extra voters do we need to turn out in PA?
To begin our calculations with, in 2022 there were 8.7 million people registered to vote in Pennsylvania, and more new voters were registering as Democrats than Republicans.
538.com gives Harris a 0.9% lead in its polling aggregate. That’s a difference of less than 80,000 votes.
Now, nobody here is going to say, Oh, then we’re fine, nothing more to do.
There are people above my pay grade who are tasked with putting this state beyond R reach, even in the most statistically unlikely turns of events. So they are going to pick a number to shoot for.
What do they do with it then?
Well, assuming that it’s less than 400,000, and supposing that each volunteer can add one or more votes to our total, the Rs get to go the way of the Federalists and the Whigs. If you ask, “Who dat?”, that’s my point.
But we don’t make such assumptions. So let’s say that our election wonks come up with a suitable number, x, and others among them can project how many voters our organization is set to turn out, they can next calculate how much money to put into further GOTV, based on known costs per vote in door knocking, phonebanking, and all of the rest.
IOW, ignore all of the caterwauling from the other side, and from the Doom & Gloomers.
We have this.
That then means that we get to run up the score elsewhere, in the House, in the Senate, in the states, in local elections, on ballot measures about abortion or voting rights or whatever.
We cannot run the score up too high. There is no such thing.
Your mission, then, should you choose to accept it, is
Rah rah ree,
Hit ‘em in the knee!
Rah rah rass,
Hit ‘em in the other knee!
Every Mission Impossible Theme Ever | The Ultimate Mashup
In a rhythm of five, like the original La Cucaracha for the five-legged cockroach, or Harry Belafonte’s We Come From the Mountain, or, of course, Dave Brubeck and Paul Desmond, Take Five.
Repetition
GNR for Sept 4th BLUE TIDE BEGINS TO LOOK LIKE A REAL TSUNAMI
by lemay50 🎩🎩
There will be three waves of voters converging on Nov. 5th.
Notably, they are: 1) Women voters- an immense and incandescently angry & motivated wave; 2) The Silver Wave; and 3) the Youth Voters. As those demographics combine on Roevember/Nov 5th, result will almost certainly be a Blue Tsunami.
💙 There are more of us than there are of them.
💛 They are terrified when we organize. THERE IS LOTS OF EVIDENCE THAT THEY ARE TERRIFIED!
Roll, blue Tide!
I have mined yesterday’s GNR for many of the items below, because facts are facts, and because repetition is good. Say it with me, repetition is good.
Real, Actionable Data
The Ground Game
Voter Registration
These increases in voter registrations are unheard of. These people mean it. They didn’t register for this season just to sit at home.
Voter registration surging compared to 2020 election, data firm finds
They were notably startled to see voter registration up by 175% among young black women. There has been much bogus polling claiming that their enthusiasm is falling off. Fuggedaboudit. This is, again, what they are DOING!
Older Voters
A Suffolk University poll for USA Today found Harris leading Trump 53-42 among voters over 60 — her largest vote share of any demographic.
Oldsters 1, Leopards Eating Peoples’ Faces Party -11.
Older voters are second only to the youngest cohort in their share of “climate voters.”
Eighty-six percent of older Americans think abortion should be legal at least under certain circumstances — in part because we’re old enough to remember coathangers.
Democrats are outspending Republicans by more than a 2-1 margin, and the disparity is most apparent in the battleground state reservations.
Rs are being pushed to the wall here, with nearly all of their available resources going in desperation to PA and GA.
Younger Voters
CIRCLE's early poll of youth (ages 18-34) ahead of the 2024 presidential election highlights major trends in young people's political views and participation.
(Note: Poll done In Nov. 2023- but still relevant!)
At a Glance: Main Findings 57% Extremely Likely to Vote
57% of youth, ages 18-34, say they’re “extremely likely” to vote in 2024, and another 15% say they’re “fairly likely” to cast a ballot in the election.
+21 for Democratic Candidate
Among youth who are extremely likely to vote: 51% back the Democratic candidate, 30% the Republican.
Note: based on very recent registrations in Swing States, these may be understated stats.!!
The BEST kind of stats for us right now.
Texas
Texas remains a distant hope, according to all of the pundits. But maybe…
Ted Cruz is especially terrified. He is running ads begging for money, and inadvertently boosting Allred and Schumer, for which I have thanked him publicly on X.
Ted Cruz Says He's Democrats' 'Number One Target'
North Carolina
Sorry, I omitted some links last night.
GNR: North Carolina Republican Chaos and Weirdness
Florida
GNR: Florida Republican Chaos and Weirdness
