2024 will mark the first time in nearly 50 years that a Kildee will not be on the ballot for Congress in Michigan. Rep. Dan Kildee beat back his cancer diagnosis in late 2023 but it gave him some perspective.
U.S. Rep. Dan Kildee, a Flint Township Democrat who carried on a family tradition of serving in Congress, will not seek re-election in 2024.
Kildee told MLive-The Flint Journal that he will leave Congress at the end of his term on Jan. 3, 2025, and said his cancer diagnosis earlier this year helped him come to the decision.
He was diagnosed with squamous cell carcinoma, a serious but curable form of cancer earlier this year. His surgery removed a small tumor in one of his tonsils, leaving him cancer-free but giving him a new perspective moving forward.
“These decisions -- they are political decisions to a point but they are always personal decisions first,” Kildee said. “Before you can calculate any political aspect of it, you have to decide: Is this the best way for me to spend my time?
“I was fully intending to run for re-election most of this year ... but in the back of my mind since I had the cancer and have been recovering from the surgery, I couldn’t ever get myself to 100%.”
“I’m not going to retire (from public life), but I want to come home,” he said. “I want to be in Michigan. I want to be home full-time.”
Kristen McDonald Rivet is trying to carry on the legacy of the Kildee family after winning his endorsement, and thus the crowded primary election on August 6th, 2024. She won 53.3% of the vote against two other notable candidates. Now, she faces an opponent who has been rejected before by the citizens of this district. Paul Junge won a contested primary of his own with a more dominant 74.8% of the vote. They both received about 27k votes in the primary, but McDonald Rivet got that much out of 48k votes cast while Junge got them out of 37k votes cast.
The question for Kristen McDonald Rivet is whether there will be a penalty for not being a Kildee. If there is, it will be a very close election!
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Kristen McDonald Rivet is contesting one of the most vulnerable Democratic seats in the nation. The district went from a Democratic stronghold to a swing seat in the Trump era. That’s why I’ve included her in a group of 26 incumbents or open-seat races we are defending. #SaveTheMajority Fund.
Kristen McDonald Rivet for Michigan-8
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What’s the Big Idea?
THIS RACE IS A TOSSUP, with an R+1 PVI
County results for MI-08 in 2022.
Flint and the Tri-Cities of Midland/Bay City/Saginaw used to be in separate districts. While the Flint district has been reliably Democratic since the Kildee family was elected in the 1970s, the other district containing the Tri-Cities was more of a swing seat that both parties controlled depending upon the district lines.
These two districts were partially merged in 2000 redistricting, which put two Democratic members in the same district. One dropped down to the state senate, while Rep. Dale Kildee (the uncle of Rep. Dan Kildee) started to represent Saginaw and Bay City in addition to Flint. The three working class cities were very securely Democratic and even during the 2010 wipeout there wasn’t much fuss.
The problems for Rep. Dan Kildee started in 2016. That’s when Trump appealed to the working class elements found in this district and narrowed the margins down to a 50%-46% win for Hillary Clinton. That meant that in the Trump era this district could fall. This was repeated when Biden only won the district 50.3% to 48.2% in 2020.
Population losses meant that Midland had to be added to the district as well, which made the district even more of a swing seat. Rep. Dan Kildee was expected to have a close race against Paul Junge as the challenger nearly knocked off Rep. Elissa Slotkin in 2020. The race proved to be a bit of a dud, with Kildee winning by a 53.1% to 42.8% margin. 336k citizens voted in 2022, while 361k voted in the 2020 election. The missing voters potentially are ones that come out to support Trump, so Kristen McDonald Rivet cannot count on higher turnout aiding her.
Here’s where this 8th district race will be won.
- Flint: Even though this city is losing population dramatically due to the Flint Water Crisis, it is still the richest source of votes for the Democratic Party in this district. This is new territory for McDonald Rivet, so it is vitally important that every vote possible can be found here.
- Saginaw: Out of the Michigan Tri-Cities, Saginaw is definitely the most friendly of them to the Democratic Party. It is the other rich source of votes in the district and McDonald Rivet must run up the score in this city to offset areas trending away from us elsewhere in the district.
Here’s where we need to keep the margins down, or we lose.
- Midland and Bay City: Bay City is trending away from us, as it is the type of blue-collar town that found Trump appealing. Midland is a Dow Chemical company town that is trending our way. It has traditionally been heavily GOP, but that is changing as educated voters trend our way. McDonald Rivet will have to balance courting both sets of voters to win this district. She is from the Tri-Cities region which should help.
- Flint Suburbs: Obama hit a high water mark in 2008 by winning these suburbs of Flint, and he kept them in his corner in 2012 as well. These suburbs surrounding Flint trended sharply to the right when Trump ran, and it is important that McDonald Rivet manage to win some of these voters over to her cause.
- Rural Farming Areas: Many of the small towns and townships surrounding the four main cities have enough votes in them to be the determining factor in a close race. McDonald Rivet must hope that these areas do not turnout as much as the cities or she will lose as these areas vote lopsidedly for the GOP nowadays.
Kristen McDonald Rivet: New Blood, New Ideas
Kristen McDonald Rivet is a part of the history-making Michigan State Senate majority.
Kristen McDonald Rivet was born in 1970 in Portland, Michigan. She has a fraternal twin sister, Karen McDonald, who is now the prosecuting attorney in Oakland County. McDonald Rivet earned her bachelor’s degree in history from Michigan State University and a master’s from UM-Flint in education and public administration.
Before entering politics, McDonald Rivet worked for nonprofits and in education. Her biography is summarized as follows:
McDonald Rivet currently serves in the state Senate, representing the 35th District that includes all of Bay and Saginaw counties, as well as parts of Genesee, Midland and Tuscola counties. She previously worked in a variety of roles including as vice president of the Skillman Foundation, an education grant making organization aimed at assisting Detroit’s young people, executive director of the private education nonprofit Michigan Head Start and chief of staff for the Michigan Department of Education.
McDonald Rivet is a member of the history-making Democratic majority in the state legislature. Prior to 2022, the Democratic Party hasn’t had a majority in the state legislature in over 40 years. She is also the first woman to be elected in the Saginaw Bay region and first Democratic candidate to be elected there in over a decade. Amazing what independent and fair maps can achieve!
A signature issue for McDonald Rivet has been tackling the child care crisis in the state of Michigan. Included in the reforms she is proposing are a working parents tax credit for child care, new and simplified licensure requirements for child care providers, provider subsidies, and other recommendations. She would most definitely tackle this issue head-on if elected to the House as well.
Another issue where McDonald Rivet will be strong is gun safety. She helped pass a sweeping package of gun safety reforms in the Michigan state legislature, including her own bill that mandates firearms be locked up whenever children are present. She has yet to be endorsed by any national gun safety groups but I feel it is only a matter of time before that happens.
Abortion is an important issue in Michigan even after it approved a constitutional amendment that guarantees the right to one. McDonald Rivet has been vocal about guaranteeing this right federally again and will be a vote to codify Roe into law once again. She will also be strong on protecting access to IVF and birth control which is why Emily’s List has endorsed her campaign.
In addition to all of the issues above, McDonald Rivet mentions that she will fight back against inflation and corporate greed, work to bring more “high-wage jobs” to Michigan, and support policies to help lower the cost of groceries, housing, and healthcare. She will be a strong pragmatic Democrat while in office as evidenced by the New Democratic Coalition endorsing her campaign.
After 50 years of the Kildee family in charge of the Flint area, Kristen McDonald Rivet will bring new ideas and new blood to the entire region.
Paul Junge: Almost a Perennial Candidate
Junge has run for office two previous times: in 2020 and in 2022. He lost both races.
Paul Junge is almost a perennial candidate at this point. If he weren’t personally wealthy, he would likely be passed over because he has lost two winnable Congressional races already. He’s still seen as competitive by the NRCC. This is his third time running for Congress and second time running for this district.
The biography for Paul Junge reads as follows:
Under the administration of Former President Donald Trump, Junge was appointed to the U.S. Citizenship and Immigration Services in 2018 to work in external affairs. He earned a bachelor's degree from the University of California, Berkeley, a law degree from the University of San Diego School of Law and a master’s degree from the University of Michigan Ross School of Business. A former deputy district attorney turned television reporter [for Fox 47 in central Michigan], Junge has run in the 8th U.S. House district in each election since 2020 — both times advancing as the Republican nominee before losing in the general election.
Junge is an anti-abortion extremist who is attempting to run away from his past campaign statements. He explicitly ran against the right to an abortion in both 2020 and 2022 before the abortion rights amendment passed. After the Dobbs decision, Junge claimed that abortion was a “made up right” and that the opportunity to restrict abortion should be celebrated. If elected, Junge would jump at the opportunity to pass a national abortion ban and overturn the will of Michigan voters.
Junge would be a rubber stamp for Trump’s radical anti-immigrant agenda as well. His campaign website is full of rhetoric about “securing the border” and “building the wall”. He would likely stand idly by while Trump deports 11 million undocumented immigrants or even help write the bill to do it given he’s worked at US Citizenship and Immigration Services.
Junge would also be a disaster for the climate and environment. Line 5 is an aging pipeline below the Straits of Mackinac and Junge advocates continued pumping of oil through it. This is a very contentious issue in Michigan with many against continued use of the pipeline due to the risk of a spill.
He also bills himself as a “strong supporter of the Second Amendment,” including a commitment to oppose any bills that would “infringe upon lawful gun ownership,” according to his website. Unlike McDonald Rivet who will champion gun safety, Junge is captive to the whims of the NRA.
Even though Junge is a twice-failed candidate, our side had better take him seriously in this race. The lean of the district is such that he stands a decent chance of winning should Trump over perform in Michigan.
How Can You Help?
Paul Junge has self-funded the majority of his campaign cash once again. The latest report from July 17th suggests that he has spent the majority of it to win the primary election - he only has $332k to spend. Kristen McDonald Rivet is in a better place financially with $805k cash-on-hand. She will still need donations in order to counter the self-funding ability of Junge.
Both sides are going to pour outside money into the Flint media market which is the critical one for this race. The DCCC and their allies are going to spend $3.66M for Michigan-8, while the NRCC and their allies are planning on purchasing $3.4M in ads for this district. They must feel this is a race that will decide who controls the House after the 2024 election.
Virtual phone banking is happening all day and seemingly every day for this campaign. It is a critical House race in a critical state for our chances of holding power. If you know how to phone bank effectively please consider signing up for a shift or two! The Human Rights campaign is putting on a special phone bank for McDonald Rivet on September 12th as well.
Canvassing is happening all across the district mostly on Sundays in Midland, Thursdays and Saturdays in Bay City, Saginaw, and Thursdays in Genesee County are active zones for canvassing operations right now. If you live in these areas your help will be appreciated! Hope Springs from Field PAC, the Harris-Walz campaign, and the Elissa Slotkin for Senate campaign are also hitting this area heavily.
The volunteer link at the top and bottom of this article takes you to an interest form to sign up to help the campaign. If you are interested in doing so, sign up today! If you are hesitant to join the campaign, there will also be a seminar for new volunteers on September 17th!
As a Michigander, it will be different not to have a member of the Kildee family in Congress. Kristen McDonald Rivet will be new blood for the Saginaw Bay region, and she has new ideas that will hopefully be popular with the electorate. According to The Downballot, she is trying to defend the 7th most vulnerable seat held by Democrats.
Paul Junge has run for office twice already and has been rejected by voters in Michigan. Yet his self-funding ability and higher name recognition still make him a threat. Polling suggests that this will be a brawl with Junge narrowly ahead within the margin of error.
With Trump drawing out voters as only he can, expect a very close race. The question for Kristen McDonald Rivet is if there is a penalty for not being a Kildee running for this district.
Kristen McDonald Rivet for Michigan-8
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