On Monday, Trump 2.0 started. To many, the sequel promises to be worse than the original. Trump has advantages in 2025 that he did not have in 2017. He enters office as the popular vote winner. The GOP Congress shows no spine. There will be no independent adults in his cabinet. And the Supreme Court has elevated him above the law. It seems Trump has little opposition to doing whatever he wants. Yet not all factors favor the felon´s fascist fancies.
There is a split between the MAGA base and the oligarchs who would use the puppet Trump to lard their bank accounts. The GOP Congress is staffed with cynical opportunists loyal only to their ambition. SCOTUS is stuffed with life-tenured egomaniacs allegiant to the billionaire class. And Trump is doddering. Even the oldest and most venal Justice, Clarence Thomas, is two years younger than the angry old man. Trump´s cabinet choices are either inept or dedicated to enriching the wealthy. His staff seems to be eye-gouging, in-fighting fanatics.
However, Trump's biggest hurdle is time. He has four years to ruin everything, and then his term is over. He is already a lame duck whose progress might be slowed by a Democratic House in 2027. I say this even though some believe there will be no more elections. Two factors render this unlikely. First, power in the US is dispersed. Fifty states have a say, so political capitulation is doubtful. And a military takeover seems a stretch.
Two, the man is incompetent. He has already waffled on his pledge to expel all undocumented aliens. Why? It´s not just the absurd price tag ($88 billion is the suggested startup cost). It is the realization that these low-paid foreign workers underpin the economy.
Notably, his other major policy threat, tariffs, got short shrift in his inaugural speech. His promise to rename the Gulf of Mexico and Mt. Denali warrants a collective yawn. His threat to retake the Panama Canal would mandate invading a foreign country. Do Americans have an appetite for that? It would do nothing to lower prices, reduce crime, improve people’s health, or pay for their retirement — the things Americans care about.
Soaring rhetoric is the lifeblood of campaigning. However, when you´re the captain of a sinking ship, it cuts little ice to blame the iceberg. Trump promised to be the price rollback and job-creating President. Let´s see how that goes.
As for the politically celebrated ´American people’ an AP/NORC poll says that most Americans do not favor Trump‘s ambitions. They voted for the man. But they would rather he not do what he has promised to do (see note below):
Conservatives want to axe the Education Department. However, 66% of the poll’s respondents say the federal government spends too little on education. A majority also say the government should spend more on:
- Social Security — 65%
- Medicare — 61%
- Medicaid — 55%
- Welfare — 62%
Increasing funding for border security receives the bare majority of support (51%) while increasing funding for other pet conservative policies gets minority support.
- Military — 34%
- Law enforcement — 19%
A majority (55%) still rate Trump unfavorably. Only 37% expect him to be a good or great president.
There is little confidence that Trump will have a positive impact on the lives of ordinary Americans. When asked if he would succeed in dealing with people’s concerns, the poll respondents were at best tepid. Immigration was his relatively strongest suit. But even there, only 36% were extremely, or very, confident he would handle it well. As for the rest, here are extremely/very confident totals
- National Security — 33%
- Economy and jobs — 32%
- Healthcare — 21%
He scored even worse when asked if he would have a positive effect in his first year.
Interestingly, while many thought that the government was corrupt (77%), inefficient (65%), and too bureaucratic (58%) — only 29% approved of DOGE (Trump’s Musk-led government efficiency project). Nor did conservative suggestions to ‘improve’ government get much support.
- Requiring federal workers to go to the office 5 days a week received 43% support
- Eliminating federal jobs — 29%
- Moving offices outside DC — 26%
- Eliminating federal agencies — 23%
Individual Trump initiatives did little better. Eliminating taxes on tips was a winner with 54% support. But the rest didn´t get above 50% support
- Increasing oil drilling on federal lands — 35%
- Tariffs — 29%
- Eliminating transgender protections — 29%
- Eliminating birth-right citizenship — 28%
- Eliminating the debt ceiling — 23%
- Pardoning the Jan 6 rioters — 21%
- Withdrawing from the Paris Agreement — 21%
Only one immigration issue was enthusiastically supported. Expelling criminal immigrants here illegally received 82% approval. Expelling criminal immigrants here legally received 68%. On the other hand, only 37% thought the undocumented who had committed no violent crimes should be deported.
The various punitive measures planned for undocumented immigrants, including family separation and throwing out non-American parents of American citizens, were not close to being approved by a majority.
Lastly, respondents wanted both parties to compromise and get along with each other, Politicians and pundits love to talk about a divided nation. But I believe that most Americans would like government from the middle — which will be bitter news for the MAGA fundamentalists and the uber-liberals. However, Democrats should take heart. Americans generally prefer lefty policies. Now the Party has to figure out how to get these reasonable people to vote for them.
Note on voting against your beliefs:
Psychologists must explain to Democratic leadership the rationale behind voters supporting left-wing policies, but who vote for Republican candidates. It is pathetic to lose an election when the majority of voters favor your policies. Many liberals blame the left´s failure on racism and biased media. I think voters — especially the new Trump voters — prefer promises of personal security (economic, health, and criminal) to social justice. Democrats who want to win have lessons to learn.
