Progressive diaries on the now-official Trump Administration tend to fall into two main categories: a) this is Germany 1933 or b) this is Germany 1938. In other words, say goodbye to democracy and all you love and cherish, sooner or (if you are an optimist) a little bit later.
There is a smaller third category of people who believe the Trumpian smoke and mirrors far outweighs the realities. This is not to say real harms won’t be done. But it would be a mistake to take what Trump says and expect it to actually happen.
To wit, here is a (non-exhaustive) list of why Democrats and Progressives should see today not as the end, but as the end of the beginning (apologies to Winston Churchill). To wit (using MAGA style headlines, followed by a dose of reality):
TRUMP IS REMAKING THE UNITED STATES WITH HUNDREDS OF EXECUTIVE ORDERS!
The impact of an Executive Order (EO) is closely related to whether it reinforces an existing policy or set of policies that have a strong basis in law and some extent of bipartisan support. Otherwise, it is dust in the wind, falling victim to litigation, dissipating due to inherent logical flaws that make it toothless even without court action, or existing until the opposing party elects a President that reverses it. Despite Trump’s boasts, he has no more, nor less, power than any other President. Trump likes EOs because they are things he can do without anyone else and having the more of them than anyone else feeds his lust to have the biggest of whatever.
THE SUPREME COURT RULED THAT TRUMP CAN COMMIT ANY CRIME AND NOT BE PROSECUTED!
Whether or not Trump can be indicted in office has little to do with the consequences to others for carrying out an otherwise illegal act. Leave aside the wild hypotheticals of Trump taking out a gun and shooting someone “in order to make government more efficient” (likely we’d have a new S.CT. decision revising his immunity). All the people in the Trump Administration who act illegally remain liable for their actions. For example, if Trump orders torture camps to be set up for immigrants, there is no “Nuremberg defense” available for those who carry this decision out. The US military, for example, is not bound to carry out an unlawful order. Despite that Supreme Court decision, there are still plenty of ways to apply the law to hold accountable the actions and decisions of a President and his Administration.
BEWARE AS TRUMP DELIVERS ON HIS PROMISES!
The memes on this were already circulating weeks ago, usually under a “FAFO” (F- around and find out) label, a sense of prevailing schadenfreud as MAGA realizes they have been betrayed by their Orange God. But you could go back to Trump Part One and see this wreckage of Trump broken promises piling up from day one in 2017. Many of Trump’s E.O.’s today are to fulfill things he said he’d do back in 2017 and didn’t. So far, the biggest piles of broken crockery are the pledge to reduce inflation and to end the Ukraine War in 24 hours. But there are many others. Trump sees media as a canvas to paint his own reality, including making wild promises he never intends to keep (or, to be charitable, is ignorant of his inability to accomplish). He also intentionally throws dust on that canvas, to obscure bad news (e.g. inflation isn’t going down after all).
TRUMP GETS THINGS DONE THROUGH INTENTIONAL CREATION OF CHAOS!
No, Trump has not suspended the laws of political physics, and made good into bad, up into down, and chaos into order. Chaos is chaos. For example, DOGE is already imploding (if something non-existent can implode — a virtual implosion?). Vivek, after projecting his own laziness onto American workers, is off to crash and burn running for office in Ohio. Meanwhile, the inevitable FACA (Federal Advisory Committee Act) lawsuit has hit DOGE, placing it in a lose-lose situation: either it is just a bunch of people flapping their gums or it is actually a real thing to which the laws apply. Musk, angling for West Wing access while he runs five companies and cheats at e-Sports, may be happy to see Vivek go, but there is no way anyone outside of Lex Luthor can do all that and reform the entire US government. The chaos replicates elsewhere: at State Department, Trump has created dozens of new envoys that threaten to hopelessly snarl US diplomacy (although a Machiavellian might see this also as a means of torturing Little Marco). Trump’s well-known management style — to pit people who work for him against each other for his own entertainment — hasn’t changed a bit. And the results will be the same the second time around — a great whirling noise with little forward movement.
TRUMP IS NO NORMAL MAN — HE CAN DO A MILLION THINGS AT ONCE AND SUCCEED!
We can go on, but we’ll end on this. An iron law of any Presidency is the pitiless march of time. Each moment after inauguration is one less moment to accomplish the priorities of the New Administration. Hence, the first year is very important. If there is a friendly Congress, there is no guarantee that will last past the next mid-terms. There is only so much time on the legislative calendar. Trump has already sought to wave this away, demanding that Speaker Johnson do it all in “one big, beautiful bill” via the reconciliation process. This...is...simply...not...possible. Hence, there will be multiple bills. Chaos rears its head, even assuming that head is not Elon sniping from his gaming console — the House GOP is factionalized with a very slim margin of error. Corralling the votes will require a huge amount of DJT’s time. Meanwhile, the international arena is a witches’ cauldron of crises: Gaza, Syria, Ukraine, etc. Again, enough to fill the plate of a Lincoln or Washington. How did DJT react when he saw this full plate? To pile it even higher! Greenland, Panama, Mexico, Canada! Let’s use US taxpayer funds (or some corrupt agglomeration of cronies’ monies) to buy Tik-Tok! On the latter, it was amusing to see MAGA pivot from paranoia over government control of their lives to applauding government taking over a huge tech company. Trump is in far over his head, and we haven’t even mentioned things like deportations, where he will fail miserably.
IN SUM
Trump is crashing and burning. He knows this — replay in slow motion his walk today to take the oath of office. He wears a look of doom. He didn’t sign up for all this. He ran in 2015 to build his brand further. Wow, he won, and that was fun for him, but being President wasn’t going to keep him off the golf course (and maybe he can make some money off it anyway). In 2024, he ran again not because of some lifelong love of responsibility, but to stay out of prison and get revenge on those he felt persecuted him. He had no choice! But now he is four years older — the oldest person to take the office of the Presidency — and in declining physical and mental condition.
So, take heart. What we are seeing now is the turning of the tide. Fight hard. Address the very real suffering being caused. But do not fall into the trap of believing Trump and his MAGA infotainment/agitprop machine reflect reality.
