This is a short diary. There seems to be a fair amount of interest in the upcoming Democratic primary for U.S. Senate. I do not know who will win. I do not have a favorite. I do know that the winner will face barriers no Republican running statewide has faced in over 3o years.
The primary results will be a good indicator of our chances:
Texas Democrats were already 1 million voters behind Republicans before the first ballot was cast in the 2024 election cycle, and for all the high hopes of finally catching lightning in a bottle Nov. 5, after a three-decade drought in statewide elections, those dreams had probably been dashed eight months earlier.
That's the analysis of political consultant and data diver Derek Ryan, who plowed through demographics and past voting habits of 99.8% of the 11,340,202 Texans who cast a ballot for president.
"The November election was probably decided back in March," Ryan said in an email blast to people who sign up for his data and insight. "In March, 2.3 million people voted in the Republican Primary while only 1 million people voted in the Democratic Primary."
Because just about everyone who votes in the primaries comes back to the polls in the fall, Texas Republicans began the race with one heck of a head start.
"That means Democrats had to contact 1 million voters (AND convince them to vote for Democrats up and down the ballot) simply to catch up to where the Republicans already were," Ryan said.
Many on this app and other platforms seem to believe our political efforts in Texas have been on a Sisyphian scale. It’s a social media myth. In short, Democrats have not made the effort supposed. We (state and national party) still do not have a comprehensive and cohesive attack plan at a basic level.
There is no attack plan. It’s just cycle to cycle and whoever is on the ticket is charged with doing much more than their Republican counterpart.The Republicans have a robust voter infrastructure in every precinct of the state. The Democrats do not, even in blue and purple precincts. To win Texas, it is going to take a bottom up approach, and that is a major weakness of the Democratic Party in far too many states.
Texas is winnable. Proof of concept? We already have flipped the major populations centers to blue and purple. You know who else knows the state can be flipped? The Republicans. They do not treat Texas like a deep red state, they treat it like a swing state:
Across a dozen of the most competitive state House districts in Texas, Republicans raked in more than $11 million over the last month, compared to the nearly $3.5 million collectively raised by their Democratic counterparts. In all but two of those districts, GOP nominees outraised their Democratic foes by a ratio of more than 3-to-1 — much of it coming in the form of what are known as in-kind contributions, or when donors pay for ads, mailers or other campaign functions on a candidate’s behalf.
They invest heavily each and every cycle. That so-called “shift” of Latino voters came about because the Republicans invested in that area even where the Democrats held a partisan advantage.
The Republicans have had decades to entrench themselves. To beat them we have to get into the trenches and it will take a massive effort of money and manpower. There are enough eligible voters that are mostly young and of color in the blue areas to flip the state. But we have to show up and ask for their votes. I don’t know that the party knows how or even wants to do that in places that are not already blue or not part of the few states we actually try and win.
It was a terrible strategic error to write off entire regions of the country under the guise of “just focus on winnable races”. The underlying assumptions of limited funds and letting people in those states suffer turned out to be wrong and helped enable authoritarianism to imperil our federal government and democracy.
I have always believed former DNC Chair Howard Dean was correct about having a “50 State Strategy”. He said that, “that every state, no matter how unfriendly to his party, deserves to have a basic level of institutional, financial, technological and personnel support, which can be "relatively inexpensive." I also agree that the Democratic Party and far too many Democrats on social media have become what Dean calls “Washington, D.C.-centric.
Luckily, new Texas Democratic Party Chair Kendall Scudder are starting expand the party's reach throughout the state:
The Texas Democratic Party is expanding its operations across the state, opening four new offices, with talks underway for at least one more. The party is hoping the expansion will help it to build grassroots support and enable it to better compete with Republicans.
The State Democratic Executive Committee approved a plan to move the party's headquarters to Dallas while keeping an office in Austin, along with opening new offices in Houston, Amarillo and Eagle Pass. Party officials are also discussing further expansion in the Rio Grande Valley.
"This is a full-fledged effort to make sure that we’re competing all across the state," said Democratic Party Chairman Kendall Scudder. "We’ve been very Central Texas-focused as a party, and that’s left large metros like Houston and DFW and, of course, West Texas, East Texas [and] South Texas feeling left out."
I will conclude simply with reminding everyone that Texas is a majority-minority state with 40 Electoral Votes. In my mind, that should whet every Democrat’s appetite to compete in the state. Trump Fatigue is starting to show up in some Texas polling:
...while Trump carried Texas with a comfortable 56% of the vote against Democrat Kamala Harris last year, only 49% said they would vote for him again if given the chance. The president lost ground in virtually all subgroups surveyed: down 20 percentage points among independents, 16 among Gen Z voters and 10 among voters who backed him despite identifying as Democrats.
Among Latino voters — long considered reliable for Texas Democrats but who defected in droves to Trump last year — support for the president dropped 12 percentage points, the poll found.
"While Trump’s advantage over Harris among these Latino voters in 2024 was 8 percentage points, if these Latino voters could vote again for president, Harris would lead Trump by 11 percentage points among Latinos, marking a 19 percentage point shift," according to the explanation by the poll managers.
It will take a great effort, but winning Texas is worth it. Please pitch in if can:
Texas Democratic Party
Lone Star Rising
Texas Majority Pac
