At the urging of President Donald Trump, Republicans are working to redistrict states across the country to shore up their tiny House majority. They know they can’t win the battle of ideas, so they’re intent on using their institutional advantages in all three chambers of government to rig the system in their favor.
But the one thing they can’t do—despite their best efforts—is rig public opinion.
The fact is, Republican governance is inherently flawed. If your core argument is “government is bad,” how can you run an actually good government?
Protesters march in opposition to North Carolina’s proposed redistricting map on Oct. 21.
A party confident in its position with the public wouldn’t be trying to gerrymander seats in its favor. And a new Quinnipiac University poll shows just how tough things might get for the GOP in the 2026 midterm elections.
The poll found that 50% of registered voters want the Democratic Party to control the House, if the election were held today. Meanwhile, 41% want the Republican Party in control. Similarly, 52% of independent voters favor Democratic control, with 32% favoring Republicans and 16% unsure.
This is the first time Quinnipiac has asked this question this cycle. And while it skipped it last time around, its final 2022 survey showed a narrow GOP lead of 48% to 44%—and Republicans went on to win 50% of the national House popular vote compared to Democrats’ 47%.
If next year looks anything like this 9% Democratic advantage, it’ll be landslide territory.
The poll also finds that congressional approval is miserable across the board—just 26% approve of how Democrats are doing their jobs, while 35% approve of Republicans’ performance. But even in that climate, voters clearly prefer Democratic control to another term of MAGA chaos.
Regarding the government shutdown, voters narrowly blame Republicans more than Democrats at 45% to 39%. But among independents, it’s much less close: 48% blame Republicans, and 32% blame Democrats. The pattern repeats across questions—partisans are locked in, but swing voters are breaking from the GOP.
Related | Swing-state GOP steals another House seat from Democrats
Next year’s elections won’t be decided by the House GOP and its actions. It will be a referendum on Trump, and his drag looms large over it all.
Only 40% of voters approve of the way Trump is handling his job as president, while just 38% approve of his handling of the economy—his lowest-ever mark as president, according to Quinnipiac.
Yes, even lower than it was during the coronavirus pandemic.
Trump can take all the credit he wants for the “peace deal” between Israel and Hamas, but most voters still disapprove of his broader leadership and have little confidence in his ability to deliver lasting peace.
In the end, House Republicans’ fate is tied to Trump’s. And if these numbers hold, no amount of redistricting trickery will save them from a public that’s already made up its mind.
