If recent actions by the Russian army along the battle trace in Ukraine seems to have a sense of desperation all over them, especially in their frenetic and inordinately costly attempts to reach cities like Pokrovsk and Kostiantynivka in Donetsk oblast, there is a very good reason(among others). No army worth its salt(in the original “salt” paid to ancient Roman legionaries as salarium) wants to be caught out in the vast open steppe lands of Eastern Europe and Western Asia during winter.
Here’s one of the forecasts on the expected record cold for the coming winter season in Ukraine:
Experts indicate that the upcoming winter will be quite unpredictable. The winter of 2025-2026 in Ukraine is expected to be record cold. (emphasis mine) Meteorologists predict strong frosts and heavy snowfall, as reported by agronews.ua.
agronews.ua/...
Napoleon Bonaparte and his French Grand Armée learned that lesson the hard way as did Adolf Hitler and the German Heer during their ill-fated “Operation Barbarossa” to capture Moscow in WWII. In the latter instance, then Soviet dictator Josef Stalin and Field Marshal Georgy Zhukov’s forces slowly retrograded into the Russian interior while fighting just enough to delay the mighty German invading force. In the process the Soviets threw so many human lives at the Germans as to make today’s casualty numbers in Ukraine look piddling.
Aided by Hitler’s own indecisions, the Soviets also knew that good old “General Winter” will become a major factor in the battle ahead. And as it turned out the winter of 1941 was one of the coldest recorded in Russia:
Battle of Moscow, battle fought between Nazi Germany and the Soviet Union from September 30, 1941 to January 7, 1942, during World War II. It was the climax of Nazi Germany’s Operation Barbarossa, and it ended the Germans’ intention to capture Moscow, which ultimately doomed the Third Reich.
www.britannica.com/...
The Encyclopaedia Britannica tells the story of the cold icy battle for Moscow in which the Soviet Union(with a large complement of Ukrainian fighters) prevailed against a much better equipped and stronger invading German force. Will the snowy icy wintry weather expected in Eastern Ukraine help the Ukrainians turn the tables on Russia in the Battle for Pokrovsk and Donetsk in 2025?
According to Denys Popovych, military expert, journalist for The New Voice of Ukraine:
The situation in Donetsk Oblast is now very alarming. It must be understood that the enemy wants to establish itself inside major cities. This is important for [Russia] to continue the operation of capturing [Donetsk Oblast] and to not meet winter in the fields between cities.(emphasis mine)
Because it is one thing when you are in the fields, with frost, rain, wet snow, and slush. And it is another thing when you still have four walls and a roof around you. Even half-destroyed four walls, but still a room is better than just a dugout in the fields.
english.nv.ua/...
And Kate Kikot, writing for Espreso pretty much makes the same point:
Russian forces try to capture cities before cold, aim for Kostyantynivka
Russian army is setting its sights on entering major cities because winter is coming — with cold and rain, it’s easier to survive in a basement than in a trench or a field
global.espreso.tv/...
Yes, it would be significantly detrimental for Russian forces to be caught out in the open fields of Ukraine during cold, harsh winter weather. The combination of freezing temperatures, wet conditions, and inadequate winter equipment severely impacts Russian troops, who are often poorly supplied and newly mobilized. The cold weather exacerbates existing issues with logistics, training, and morale, making it difficult for Russian forces to maintain discipline and operational cohesiveness and effectiveness.
Exposure to the elements leads to a high risk of non-freezing cold injuries, such as frostbite and trench foot, especially when soldiers are forced to remain outside in wet and windy conditions without proper clothing or shelter. The frozen ground, while potentially beneficial for mechanized movement, does not mitigate the challenges of maintaining equipment and sustaining troops in the field. Furthermore, the inability to efficiently evacuate the wounded worsens morale and operational capability, a problem already evident in Russian forces.
In contrast, Ukrainian forces are better equipped and more prepared for winter operations, allowing them to exploit the conditions to their advantage by conducting operations that force Russian troops to remain in exposed positions, thereby increasing attrition and casualties. This is partly the reason why Ukraine insists on TRAINED soldiers, even if fewer in number. Trained, experienced and better equipped soldiers do better under these brutal weather conditions.
The winter thus presents a strategic opportunity for Ukraine to maximize Russian losses by drawing them into prolonged engagements across a wide front, where they are vulnerable to both combat and environmental hardships.
It is important to note, however, that the Russians are also taking advantage of the incipient bad weather(as reported by ISW):
The commanding officer of a Ukrainian brigade operating in the Kostyantynivka-Druzhkivka tactical area stated on October 21[2025] that Russian forces are taking advantage of poor weather conditions, particularly fog, to infiltrate Ukrainian positions both at night and during the day. A Russian milblogger claimed that Russian service members recently took advantage of poor weather conditions to advance near Volodymyrivka and Rusyn Yar. The Russian milblogger claimed that Russian forces aim to cut off Ukrainian supply routes and push Ukrainian forces out of Sofiivka and Toretske to close the Pokrovsk-Myrnohrad pocket and eventually capture all of Pokrovsk.
understandingwar.org/...
Well, fortunately for Ukraine the Russians failed in this gambit as they were caught out in the open and were severely mauled at Volodymyrivka. But no doubt they will keep trying.
For ADAPTIVE INDOMITABLE UKRAINE’s military planners, the clock is ticking. Already, rainy fall weather is bringing muddy conditions that are starting to limit the mobility of tanks and other heavy equipment. Time to go all out to stop the Russians from advancing en masse into the cities(even if they somehow manage to sneak in Sabotage and Reconnaissance Groups which can be hunted down). Time to do everything possible to push Russia to "Meet Winter in the Fields" .. while attriting the heck out of them in the open with drones and long distance fires. Give them no cover. Give them no shelter.
SLAVA UKRAINI ! PEREMOHA(Victory) !!
