President Donald Trump privately told allies what much of New York already knows: Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani seems virtually unbeatable.
According to The Wall Street Journal, Trump and his team now believe that the 34-year-old will easily defeat Republican Curtis Sliwa and independent Andrew Cuomo on Nov. 4. And Trump’s reading isn’t wrong, with poll after poll showing Mamdani maintaining strong leads across the board.
New York independent mayoral candidate Andrew Cuomo
An October survey of likely general election voters by AARP New York and Gotham Polling & Analytics found Mamdani at 43.2%, followed by Cuomo at 28.9%, Sliwa at 19.4%, and 8.4% undecided.
Around the same time, a Fox News poll showed Mamdani at 49%, Cuomo at 28%, and Sliwa at 13%—a 21-point lead for the Democrat. And a Quinnipiac University poll earlier this month found Mamdani leading Cuomo by 13 points, with 52% of likely voters viewing the former governor unfavorably.
All signs point the same way: Mamdani’s momentum is real. And according to the Journal, even Trump’s inner circle believes it’s too late for either Cuomo or Sliwa to catch up.
The president and his aides have brushed off talk that Sliwa's withdrawal would change the race, arguing that Cuomo’s high negatives would make it impossible to consolidate enough anti-Mamdani support.
But Sliwa, for his part, isn’t going anywhere.
New York Republican mayoral candidate Curtis Sliwa
“Let’s be very clear: I am not dropping out, under no circumstance,” he said during a press conference Tuesday. “I’ve already been offered money to drop out. I said ‘no.’”
Sliwa’s defiance came just a day after his boss, WABC-AM owner and influential Republican John Catsimatidis, publicly pleaded with him to bow out to unite conservatives behind Cuomo.
Trump’s private comments reflect a broader unease in his orbit over Mamdani’s likely rise to City Hall. The president, who built his real-estate empire in New York, has bristled at Mamdani’s campaign rhetoric, especially his promises to raise taxes on the wealthy.
Publicly, Trump has labeled Mamdani a “communist” and pushed for one of his rivals to drop out to consolidate support. Meanwhile, Rupert Murdoch’s media outlets have gone on the attack: Fox News has suggested Mamdani be deported, and the New York Post continues to churn out anti-Mamdani headlines.
Speaking to reporters in the Oval Office Tuesday, Trump acknowledged Mamdani’s advantage but stopped short of calling his win inevitable.
“It’s really a question of would I rather have a Democrat or a communist? And I would rather have a Democrat than a communist,” he said.
He added that, if Sliwa dropped out, “maybe Cuomo would have a little bit of a chance, but not much.”
New York Democratic mayoral candidate Zohran Mamdani
Trump has also used his office to apply pressure in the race. In September, he threatened to cut off federal funding to New York if Mamdani were elected, and he has since frozen $18 billion in infrastructure funding during the GOP’s ongoing government shutdown.
All three candidates faced off Wednesday night in their final debate before early voting. The event was tense and chaotic, with Cuomo and Sliwa repeatedly attacking Mamdani, who largely played it safe.
Mamdani opened by accusing his rivals of focusing more on political gamesmanship than ideas, before laying out proposals to expand programs to shelter families and freeze rents while providing relief for landlords.
At one point, Mamdani jabbed Cuomo over his “experience”—a veiled reference to the scandals that forced the former governor to resign in 2021.
“You will hear from Andrew Cuomo about his experience, as if the issue is that we don’t know about it,” Mamdani said. “The issue is that we have all experienced your experience.”
Current Mayor Eric Adams, who dropped out weeks ago, skipped the debate—but now he’s back in the picture to endorse Cuomo, setting aside months of personal animosity to try to slow Mamdani’s surge. He said he plans to campaign alongside Cuomo in Black and brown neighborhoods “to really wake up” voters on what’s at stake in the race, though it’s unclear whether that will make a difference.
So yes, Trump may finally be admitting what’s been clear for months: Mamdani is unstoppable. Even the president’s interference hasn’t changed the math.
In the end, it looks like New Yorkers—not Trump—will have the final word.
