Are Republicans already throwing in the towel in California? It sure looks that way.
Multiple polls show most California voters back Proposition 50, the ballot measure that would pause the state’s independent redistricting commission and let lawmakers redraw congressional maps. If those numbers hold, it could hand Democrats a decisive win.
Rather than wait for a blowout at the ballot box, Republicans appear to be cutting their losses early. According to Punchbowl News, California’s GOP has started scaling back its TV advertising, walking away from its anti-Prop 50 messaging. The outlet reports that the party has grown increasingly pessimistic about stopping Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s redistricting push.
“Redistricting fight” by Mike Luckovich
The numbers help explain why. Newsom’s group boosting Prop 50 has spent nearly $43 million on TV, radio, digital, and streaming ads. The two GOP groups opposing the measure have spent a combined $27 million—a $16 million gap.
No on Prop 50–Protect Voters First, an anti–Prop 50 group funded by GOP donor Charles Munger Jr., has spent $20.1 million so far. But with less than a month to go before the Nov. 4 election, the group isn’t airing any TV ads this week, according to AdImpact data cited by Punchbowl.
An allied group, No on Prop 50–Stop Sacramento’s Power Grab, led by former Speaker Kevin McCarthy, has spent a total of just under $7 million. It slashed ad spending from $4 million last week to less than $2 million this week.
Privately, many Republicans admit they’re bracing for defeat. Polling backs that up. A co/efficient survey found 54% of California voters support Prop 50, while 36% oppose it.
Another poll conducted for The Cook Political Report by TrueDot.ai found 47% support and 34% opposition. Among registered voters, support ticks up to 50%.
In that second poll, conducted from Sept. 30 to Oct. 2, just over half of voters said they were locked in—32% definitely voting yes and 19% definitely voting no. The rest were leaning or undecided, meaning both sides still have some room to maneuver. But with Republicans pulling back, the momentum is tilting toward “yes.”
There’s a clear reason the GOP is retreating. Democrats are outspending them and have successfully nationalized the fight. Pro-Prop 50 ads feature California Sen. Alex Padilla recounting being tackled by federal agents and New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez warning that President Donald Trump is threatening “the well-being of our communities,” as footage of ICE raids rolls.
Meanwhile, GOP fundraising has lagged. Republicans in Washington are privately frustrated that McCarthy pledged to raise $100 million for the effort but has spent less than $7 million on ads.
The McCarthy-aligned group insists it’s not giving up completely. It said in a statement to Punchbowl that it’s “continuing to invest the necessary resources to run a data-driven campaign” that can reach key voters with what’s left.
“No amount of campaign cash, clever spin, or all-caps posts can hide the truth: Prop 50 strips power from the people and hands it to greedy politicians at great taxpayer expense while pretending it’s for democracy,” adviser Ellie Hockenbury said.
Some House Republicans are still writing checks. For example, Ohio Rep. Jim Jordan contributed $300,000. Meanwhile, California Reps. Ken Calvert and Doug LaMalfa—who would both be drawn into deep-blue districts under the proposed map—have also donated. LaMalfa gave $250,000.
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It’s hard to overstate what’s on the line. If Prop 50 passes, Democrats could effectively blunt Texas’s new congressional map heading into the 2026 midterms.
After Trump kicked off a national redistricting offensive, GOP-led states like Florida and Indiana have weighed mid-decade remaps, and Missouri already passed a plan flipping a Democratic seat.
That push is picking up steam. According to new reporting on Wednesday, Indiana could be next. Vice President JD Vance is reportedly expected to visit the state on Friday to rally Senate Republicans behind redrawing its congressional map.
As Republicans press forward, Democratic governors in Illinois, Maryland, and New York are weighing their own counterpunch.
All of it points to one thing: the battle for the House could hinge on what California does next.
