It appears Republicans are getting too big for their britches in the Donald Trump-led effort to rig the 2026 midterm elections by redrawing congressional districts to benefit the GOP—hubris that may backfire a bit.
On Monday, Utah's Republican-controlled legislature passed a new congressional map that actually opens the party up to losing two seats in the state's four-member U.S. House delegation.
Utah passed the new map under orders from a state judge, who ruled in August that the current Republican congressional gerrymander violated a law that required the state to use a nonpartisan commission when drawing districts.
But rather than make one of the state's four seats blue by centering it around Democratic-heavy Salt Lake City, as proposed by an independent redistricting commission, Republicans instead redrew the map to split Salt Lake City into two districts, a move that ensures that President Donald Trump carried all four of the state's House seats—albeit by smaller margins than the illegal map the judge struck down.
Yet, if a Democratic wave materializes in 2026 amid backlash to Trump and his party's fealty to his lawlessness, that could cause Republicans to actually lose two seats, rather than just one.
"The map has two seats that Trump carried by about 2 and 7 points, respectively. Such a plan might end up being a 'dummymander'—a situation when the dominant party draws a map to favor it that backfires and produces gains for the opposition party," Geoffrey Skelley, the chief elections analyst at the outlet Decision Desk HQ, wrote about a draft of Utah's new map.
The new map will still need to be approved by a judge before it takes effect.
Meanwhile, things are looking good for Democrats in California, where voters are being asked in a November ballot measure whether the legislature should redraw the state's congressional maps in response to GOP redistricting efforts in Texas.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom, shown in August.
Punchbowl News reported on Wednesday that Republicans appear to be throwing in the towel on California's redistricting fight, believing that Democrats' efforts to paint the referendum as a check on Trump's power will lead the ballot measure to pass. Polls suggest the measure would pass if the election were held today.
If the ballot measure passes, California's redrawn map would likely neutralize the gains Republicans are seeking to make in Texas.
What's more, Republicans' efforts to redraw Indiana's congressional map appear to be stalling. GOP lawmakers are getting cold feet about trying to axe a Democratic seat, Politico's Adam Wren reported—so much so that the White House is sending Vice President JD Vance to the state to strong-arm GOP legislators into submission.
Democrats, meanwhile, say that despite Republicans' best efforts to gerrymander their way to victory, the GOP’s unpopular actions will still sink its House majority next November.
"[Trump] is trying everything possible to keep the House in 2026. All the redistricting in the world isn’t going to help when the Trump health insurance premiums hits," Sen. Ruben Gallego (D-AZ) wrote Tuesday in a post on X. "24 Million voters, many in swing districts, are gonna see their insurance costs increase. Good luck Don!"
