Trump supposedly obtained a promise from China that the Chinese would be buying up to 12 million metric tons of soybeans from American farmers by January of 2026. And folks like American Soybean Association president Caleb Ragland were whooping it up as the start of new and fairer trade deals with China. The genius of Donald Trump the dealmaker was on full display! And the Chinese promised to buy another 25 million metric tons in the next three years.
The USDA, which just reopened, has some of that very annoying data out about Chinese purchases of American soybeans.
OMAHA, Neb. – New data the Agriculture Department released Friday created serious doubts about whether China will really buy millions of bushels of American soybeans like the Trump administration touted last month after a high-stakes meeting between President Donald Trump and Chinese leader Xi Jinping.
The USDA report released after the government reopened showed only two Chinese purchases of American soybeans since the summit in South Korea that totaled 332,000 metric tons. That's well short of the 12 million metric tons that Agriculture Secretary Brooke Rollins said China agreed to purchase by January and nowhere near the 25 million metric tons she said they would buy in each of the next three years.
That is 332,000 metric tons. No where near 12 million, unless we are using Trumpian math. You know. The type of math where Trump just pulls figures out of his rather large ass.
A grain and oil seed expert and economist who was quoted in this article pointed out that the Chinese “promise” probably came with a little caveat:
Beijing has yet to confirm any detailed soybean purchase agreement but only that the two sides have reached “consensus” on expanding trade in farm products. Ehmke said that even if China did promise to buy American soybeans it may have only agreed to buy them if the price was attractive.
“If the price was attractive.” I don’t know about you all, but I think that sounds like a very big loophole for this “consensus agreement.” And when the Trump Administration was asked about how much and when the Chinese may purchase the rest of those millions of tons of soybeans, the officials could only say something like, “Soon.”
I’m not a commodities expert, but I’m reasonably sure the Chinese are not going to buy millions of tons of soybeans this year from American farmers.
Do I think that Caleb Ragland will ever catch on that he and his fellow soybean farmers got played? Nope. I think Ragland would rather eat his MAGA hat in some dark part of his home first before he ever admits in public that he fell for a con. In fact, Ragland strikes me as the type of mark who doubles down and continues to believe in the con artist long after it is obvious there is no pay off.
