As California voters head to the polls on Tuesday, Democrats are tracking more than just the results: They’re bracing for the possibility that Rep. Nancy Pelosi might leave Congress.
According to NBC News, party leaders expect the 85-year-old to make an announcement about her political future after the election. Over decades in Washington, Pelosi has built a reputation as one of the most powerful and effective figures in modern U.S. politics, serving as a key adversary to President Donald Trump during his first term and quietly advising Democrats through his second.
Pelosi makes her way to a meeting on Capitol Hill in 2013.
Her timing is closely tied to a ballot measure, Proposition 50, which would redraw California’s congressional districts. Pelosi has been a vocal champion of the plan, which Democrats hope will help them net additional seats in next year’s midterm elections.
Multiple Democratic sources told NBC that they believe she will not run for reelection in 2026 after nearly four decades representing San Francisco.
“I wish she would stay for 10 more years,” one House Democrat from California said. “I think she’s out. She’s going to go out with Prop 50 overwhelmingly passing, and what a crowning achievement for her to do that.”
Pelosi’s possible departure comes at a moment when Democrats nationally are calling for younger candidates to step forward and for older leaders to pass the torch.
If she does step aside, it would mark the end of a congressional era—one defined by her unmatched skill as a “legislative strategist, vote counter, and fundraiser” and as the first woman to serve as House speaker.
Her exit would also open a fiercely competitive race for her seat. Among the challengers are Saikat Chakrabarti, the former chief of staff to Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York; and state Sen. Scott Wiener, who was first elected in 2016. Both have launched insurgent campaigns against the backdrop of Pelosi’s formidable fundraising advantage: more than $2 million raised this cycle and a $1.5 million war chest, according to campaign filings.
Pelosi tears up her copy of President Donald Trump’s State of the Union address in February 2020.
And Pelosi has hinted at leaving.
According to NBC, at a recent California Democratic delegation meeting on Capitol Hill, she joked that she looked forward to seeing Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries sworn in as the first Black speaker of the House “if I’m still allowed on the floor.”
“I think she’s preparing to exit the stage,” a House Democratic leadership aide told NBC. “We will not fully appreciate the time we have spent with her” until she’s gone.
Similarly, Bay Area political insiders say the signs increasingly point toward her stepping aside.
“Most people think it is highly unlikely that she will run for another term,” one local Democratic official said.
In response to Daily Kos’ request for comment regarding Pelosi’s future, spokesperson Ian Krager referred to a prior social media post in which he declined to address whether she would seek a 20th full term in Congress.
“Speaker Pelosi is fully focused on her mission to win the Yes on 50 election in CA. Any discussion of her future plans beyond that mission is pure speculation,” Krager posted on X. “As she has said, Speaker Pelosi will not make any announcements about her future until after Prop 50 is settled.”
Pelosi herself echoed that sentiment in a recent interview with the San Francisco Examiner, saying she would not decide on reelection until after Tuesday’s vote.
Pelosi speaks during a campaign event on Proposition 50 in San Francisco on Nov. 3.
“Here’s the thing: We must win the House. If you talk about ‘no kings,’ we must win the House to put a stop to this. We won’t be able to get many things done, but we’ll be able to stop a lot of the poison that he’s putting there, and the best antidote to poison is to win the election,” she said. “There’s a lot riding on this because this is the path to our winning the House. We will win the House regardless, but winning it big, and we want to win Nov. 4 big.”
Meanwhile, colleagues have praised Pelosi as a historic figure who transformed Congress.
“Nancy Pelosi is a stateswoman who, as they say about Lincoln, belongs to the ages,” progressive Rep. Ro Khanna, a fellow Bay Area Democrat, told NBC. “Generations to come will be reading about her contributions to America.”
But even in her strongly liberal district, Pelosi has occasionally clashed with progressives over her long tenure.
Whether Pelosi retires or runs for reelection, her decision will come as Democrats wrestle with broader questions, like how to counter Trump and the GOP and how—and when—to make room for the next generation of leadership.
