Just the Stats, Man: Weekly Canvass Wrap-Up from AZ, CA, FL, OH, PA & TX

Hope Springs from Field PAC’s [website] volunteers were completely focused on the elections in California and Pennsylvania last week.  Seems like we did good!

         Consensus 2026 Senate Map

Florida, Georgia, North Carolina and Texas remain a part of our special Voter Registration project conducted mostly by Divine Nines (we have had a couple of HBCU alumini groups that were organized around their school, not greek groups) — although North Carolina volunteers did not canvass last weekend.  But they have been unbelievably active this year — and finding voters who need free Photo IDs through the Elections Boards in Georgia and North Carolina, to boot!

Ohio volunteers remain committed to putting Democrats in strong position after the latest redistricting efforts there.  At least we know what the maps look like and can refocus on the new lines.  The same is sorta true in North Carolina, but our volunteers there are waiting until March.  And Paxton’s office is pushing back in Texas, but are hampered more than ever by our new Virginia Attorney General.

Elections have consequences.

Volunteers in Arizona (making up for Summer cancellations) continue to knock on doors, taking advantage of nicer canvassing weather.

In California, we had a full week of GOTV.  Our GOTV list ended up being 32,693 1s (people who strongly support Prop 50 in Northern California and pledged to vote in this upcoming election) and our list of 2s (likely supporters) was more than 23,785.  We found 22,685 1s (strong supporters) and 23,963 2s (likely supporters) in Pennsylania committed to retaining all three Democratic-aligned state supreme court justices.

Volunteers have been taking walk lists home to do follow-up contacts with households who weren’t at home when they stopped by.  We continue to find this is an amazing way to break through the typical nonchalance attitude that people have when someone they don’t know call them up (although some of our volunteers text).  People are naturally more inclined to talk to volunteers and share their thoughts with them when it is pointed out something unique or interesting about their home.  Which is the point of the Observations Forms (and why i continue to share them).

The fact is that the positive impression volunteers leave with voters, even at this stage of the election cycle, is more important than what they say — because that’s what voters remember.  Some of our volunteers do this, but by no means all.  But it allows us to build out more voter input into the voter data-base.

Granted, Hope Springs makes it easy for volunteers to leave behind good impressions — even though some volunteers do feel like we’ve loaded them down with paper-work.  Offering voters opportunities to fill out Constituent Service Requests, or Incident Reports, or even Q-(uestion) slips for their elected officials to answer, at their door continues to build voter appreciation for Democrats in general.  We aren’t promising that all their problems will be solved — only the opportunity to have them addressed, and voters understand that.  Voters appreciate that.  Someone was listening!

Last Saturday, we collected 25,018 survey responses at the door but we added 81,796 responses through follow-up contacts with voters whose home they had visited the previous Saturday.  Most of these are through phone follow-up contacts (some of our volunteers even begin this Saturday nights — somehow they’ve decided that telling voters ‘I was just at your door this morning’ increases their response rate).  But some volunteers collect it through text, which can be slow.  It helps that we leave literature behind — something that makes up a majority of the expenses that Hope Springs from Field has each month — and why we continue to ask for your financial support to help defray these costs.  That’s 106,814 distinct voter inputs from last Saturday that are being add to VAN (the shared Democratic database).

Hope Springs’ canvassers aren’t the only volunteers living in the trenches of Democracy.  8,596 volunteers have received their New Voters postcards and name/addressees and have now sent out their second round.

On Saturday, 6,883 volunteers came out to canvass.  We knocked on 474,425 doors.  At every door, we left a piece of literature promoting the Democratic Party as an explanation of why we were there.

Volunteers talked to 38,894 voters last Saturday.  Of those, 25,018 voters answered questions on our Issues Survey, at least in part.

Hope Springs volunteers registered 134 new voters and re-registered 75 voters at their current address to comply with federal law.  128 of those 134 are in the 2 states were African-American volunteers, mostly from our Divine Nine partners, are in primarily African-American neighborhoods knocking on doors.  We differentiate new registrants from re-registrants because we engage in follow-up communications, as well as mentoring, with the people whom we newly register to vote.  But you can see how the previous graphs follow the same pattern (more volunteer mean more doors), but the number of voters we register does not.  You can also tell which weeks we’ve had outside help from our partners from the Divine Nine!

Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 1st.  We target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans.  The voters we talk to continue to tell us they come away more invested in governance and feel more favorably towards Democrats in general because of our approach.

Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/UNRIGtheMidterms

Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical.  Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.

Professional prognosticators have started to understand our strategy for overcoming the Rigged Maps by mobilizing our electorate in areas where Democrats feel overwhelmed.  One of them wrote this.

Arizona

674 volunteers came out to knock on doors in Arizona.  We knocked on 48,325 doors and talked to 3,965 voters.  2,524 of those voters answered at least some of the questions on our Issues Survey.  We registered 2 new voters and re-registered 16 voters.

Affordability and the Rising Cost of Living were the Number 1 issues for the Arizonans we talked to.  Fears over cuts in Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid and the loss of Rural Hospitals were second and High Housing Availability, Affordability and Housing Insurance Costs and increasing electrity prices was third.  175 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms.

1% of the voters we talked to supported the House reconciliation bill to cut the federal government. 16% disapproved.  6% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that Trump was doing.  51% disapproved.  There is no senate race next year in Arizona, but we are asking about job approval for GOP House incumbents.  6% approved and 548% disapproved.  One GOP Congressman has decided not to run for re-election.  49% approved of the job Gov. Hobbs is doing while 5% disapproved.

California

We wrote about last Saturday's canvass in California in our diary on Friday. 2,495 volunteers knocked on 156,436 doors. They talked to 12,984 voters and had in-depth conversations with 8,309 of them, respectively, guided by our Issues Questionnaire.

Midweek canvasses were diaried here and here.  Election Day was covered here.  In all, 1,354 volunteers came out this week and knocked on 77,312 doors.  O, Sunday, they talked to 3,110 voters, with detailed discussions with 2,053 of them.  We did not record such data on Monday and Tuesday as our GOTV priority was as many of our supporters as possible.

Florida

618 volunteers came out last Saturday in Florida and knocked on 46,164 doors.  They talked to 3,739 voters with 2,393 of them responding to questions on our Issues Questionnaire.  We registered 71 new voters (all African-American) and re-registered 18 voters, all using the Florida Secretary of State website (to comply with Florida’s stringent laws).

The Top Issue in Florida last Saturday was High Prices and concerns (especially among older voters) whether their Cost of Living Adjustments will keep up.  IOW, affordability.  Voter Concern over the future of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid was the Number 2 issue.  Housing Availability, Affordability and Housing Insurance Costs as well as Electricity Costs was third.  Of particular concern last week was expeted increases in Housing Insurance wrt Hurricane protection.

On Saturday, 1% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts  to cut the Federal budget while 18% disapproved.  4% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that Trump was doing; 54% disapproved.  

Florida’s new appointed Senator is Ashley Moody.  4% of the voters we talked to approved of the job she was doing and 24% disapproved.  We also ask about how voters feel about the job the governor is doing.  On Saturday, 8% said they approved and 44% said they’d disapprove.

286 voters filled out Constituent Service Requests.  8 voters filled out Incident Reports, citing potential problems they had witnessed in a prior election.

Ohio

426 volunteers came out to knock on doors in Ohio last weekend.  We are shifting our efforts geographically in these last few weeks (we had a really lively discussion with volunteers about when this year’s canvassing should end).  We knocked on 31,396 doors and talked to 2,511 voters.  1,632 of those voters answered at least some of the questions from our Issues Survey.  We registered 1 new voters and re-registered 6 voters.  88 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms.

High Prices and fears that the Cost of Living won’t keep up was the Number 1 Issue in Ohio.  Threats to Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid was second.  Tariffs and the need to bailout the Ag Sector was third.  It’s weird to me how important the Ag economy is in these suburban neighborhoods.

1% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  17% disapproved.  4% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that Trump was doing.  53% disapproved.  4% approved of the job Jon Husted was doing in the Senate; 25% disapproved.  39% approved of the job Gov.  DeWine is doing while 32% disapproved.

Pennsylvania

1,931 volunteers came out to knock on doors in Pennsylvania last Saturday.  We knocked on 138,452 doors and talked to 11,353 voters.  7,379 of those voters answered questions from our Issues Survey on Saturday.  We registered 3 new voters and re-registered 18 voters.

1,394 came out on Sunday, Monday and Election Day.  They knocked on 94,759 doors in our GOTV effort.

The high Cost of Living was the Number 1 Issue in Pennsylvania.  The future of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid and Cuts to Rural Hospitals were second.  Judicial Elections was third.

1% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  19% disapproved.  3% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that Trump was doing.  59% disapproved.  You can really tell when our walk universe focused on Democrats.  There is no senate race next year in Pennsylvania, but we ask about job approval for the Members of Congress in these districts.  4% approved of the job the incumbent (GOP) Member of Congress was doing; 61% disapproved.  53% approved of the job Gov. Shapiro is doing while only 4% disapproved.

611 voters filled out Constituent Service Requests.  13 voters filled out an Incident Report, citing potential problems they had witnessed in a prior election.

Texas

738 volunteers came out to knock on doors on Saturday in Texas.   We knocked on 53,652 doors and talked to 4,345 voters.  2,7810 of those voters answered at least some of our questions.  

We registered 57 new voters (primarily African-American due to our Divine Nine volunteers) and re-registered 17 voters, to comply with federal election law.  

Affordability and the Rising Cost of Living was the Top Issue in Texas last weekend. Housing Availability, Affordability and Housing Insurance Costs as well as Electricity Costs was second and Worries about the future of Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid and the impact on Rural Hospitals was third.

1% of the voters we talked to supported DOGE and House Republican efforts to cut the federal government.  12% disapproved.  5% of the voters we talked to said they approved of the job that Trump was doing while 52% disapproved.  3% approved of the job John Cornyn was doing in the Senate; 51% disapproved.  5% approved of the job Gov. Abbott  is doing while 48% disapproved.

406 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms and 10 voters filled out Incident Reports, citing potential problems they had witnessed in a prior election.

Grassroots support drives Hope Springs, and our grassroots organizing.  No amount is too small (and the FEC puts a ceiling on what we are allowed to accept).  Regardless, we would certainly appreciate your support:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/UNRIGtheMidterms

We canvass with an Issues Survey that serves as our jumping off point for conversations with voters.  We find this is an easy way to begin the canvass season.

2,751 voters completed Consti-tuent Service Request forms last Saturday.  We send the completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along anyway.

31 voters filled out Incident Reports on Saturday.  A lot of these were reports about primary elections allegations.  Incident Reports are used to plan Election Protection activities, and will be combined with other, historical incidents and handed over to District and State Attorneys, Attorney Generals and the DoJ Civil Rights Division right before Election Day as a precaution against Election Day Incidents in November.  Past polling place activity is a predictor of future voter intimidation or suppression activity.  

All the data we collect is entered into VAN, the  shared Democratic database.  We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters.  At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand.  The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.  We also ask voters if they have an problems that local, state or federal governments need to address in their neighborhoods.  

Hope Springs from Field has a hybrid approach.  We aren’t interested in competing with regular campaign field organizing.  We are in the field before they get there and then move on when the Democratic campaigns start their own intensive field work.  Indeed, when we wind up the typical field work by Labor Day, we will encourage all the volunteers working with us to move over to the Senate campaigns in their states (and hope that our field organizers will be hired on by those campaigns).  After Labor Day, we will begin organizing our Election Protection Project.

We continue to remind voters to verify their registration and also ask voters if they have any concerns about the upcoming elections.  Last year, we walked with lit about the changes in voting laws, but we also asked voters about their fears and experience in prior elections.  

Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or the Electoral College in 2024, as well as districts that are remapped in ways that offer opportunities or vulnerabilities for Democrats next year (specifically those where a Republican won a Congressional District that voted for Biden in 2022).  There is a lot of work to be done!  Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.

But the main focus of our canvassing is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns.  Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary.  Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.

Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or Congressional Races in 2026.  There is a lot of work to be done!  Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.

Hope Springs is a seat-of-the-pants grassroots-driven operation.  We don’t have employees but we realize that to formalize and professionalize this effort that will have to change eventually.  We are a bottom up project, one that doesn't just help Democratic presidential, senate and house candidates, but every Democrat running for office in these swing state areas (who uses VAN).

Hope Springs has been called “the most comprehensive, organized grassroots voter contact project out there right now.  It is truly astonishing that it is grassroots-based!”  Not sure why it is “astonishing,” but i probably have more faith in grassroots or self-organized efforts because of my experience with Barack Obama’s early days in 2007.

No other Democratically-aligned org has been methodically trying to circumvent MAGA efforts to rig the House Midterm elections.  And we need your help to continue.  Our printer costs alone are way beyond our budgeting.

If you are able to support Hope Springs from Field’s efforts to turn out the vote here, protect Democratic voters, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, we would appreciate your support:

https://secure.actblue.com/donate/UNRIGtheMidterms

If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page.  Thank you for your support.  This work depends upon you!