Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of December 15 to 16.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 69 Shahed-type, Gerbera-type, and other drones — of which roughly 40 were Shahed-type drones — from the directions of Oryol City; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Hvardiiske, Crimea.[90] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 57 drones and that 10 drones struck seven locations. Ukrainian officials reported that Russian forces struck residential, civilian, and energy infrastructure in Zaporizhia, Kharkiv, and Odesa oblasts.[91]
Ukrainian state energy operator Ukrenergo reported that Russian overnight strikes against Ukrainian energy infrastructure on December 16 disrupted power to at least 427,000 customers in Donetsk Oblast and 278,000 customers in Odesa Oblast; caused additional outages in Dnipropetrovsk and Mykolaiv oblasts; and prompted emergency shutdowns in Kharkiv Oblast and continued outage schedules across much of Ukraine.[92] Ukrenergo further reported that most Ukrainian oblasts will introduce hourly civilian outages and industrial power restrictions on December 17 due to damage sustained from Russian strikes.[93]
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Ukraine’s air defenders shot down or jammed 57 out of 69 Russian attack drones overnight (mostly Shahed & Geran types), launched from Russia and occupied Crimea. Drones struck 7 locations.
Ukrainian forces continued to strike Russian industrial and military infrastructure. Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces (USF) Commander Major Robert “Magyar” Brovdi, citing updated satellite imagery on December 15, reported that Ukrainian forces struck the Kamensky chemical plant in Kamensk-Shakhtinsky, Rostov Oblast on the night of December 14 to 15.[19] Brovdi reported that the Kamensky plant produces rocket fuel; components for solid-fuel rocket engines; and warheads for Iskander-M and Kinzhal ballistic missiles and Uragan, Smerch, and Tornado-S multiple launch rocket systems (MLRS). Rostov Oblast Governor Yury Slyusar claimed on December 15 that Ukrainian forces launched a massive drone attack against Rostov Oblast overnight but did not report strikes on the Kamensky Plant.[20] A Russian insider source reportedly affiliated with Russian security services claimed on December 16 that Ukrainian forces struck a column of Russian S-400 air defense systems with six drones near Raevka, Belgorod Oblast on the evening of December 14.[21] The insider source claimed that Ukrainian strikes destroyed and damaged two S-400 launchers and destroyed four air defense missiles.
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United States will provide “robust” security guarantees to Ukraine as part of the peace deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.[1] The Council of the European Union issued a joint statement on December 15 affirming that the United States and European leaders are committed to working together to provide “robust security guarantees” and economic recovery measures for Ukraine in the context of the peace deal. The Council agreed to provide support for the Ukrainian military in peace time; a European-led multinational force composed of forces from the Coalition of the Willing; a US-led ceasefire monitoring and verification mechanism; and a legally binding commitment to take military, diplomatic, and economic measures in the event of Russia’s reinvasion. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reported on December 16 that US and Ukrainian officials discussed legally-binding security guarantees during the talks.[2] Zelensky noted that Ukrainian and US officials will meet in Miami, Florida, to continue discussions about security guarantees, and a US official noted that US and Ukrainian working groups will likely meet over the weekend (December 20 and 21) “somewhere” in the United States, possibly Miami.[3]
The Kremlin explicitly rejected US and European offers to provide Ukraine with “NATO-like” security guarantees as part of a peace deal and continued to signal its unwillingness to compromise on Russia’s territorial claims to Ukraine’s sovereign territory. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Ryabkov stated in an English language TV interview with ABC News on December 15 that Russia “definitely will not at any moment subscribe to, agree to, or even be content with” any NATO troops in Ukraine, even if these forces are part of a security guarantee or are members of the Coalition of the Willing.[4] Ryabkov also reiterated that Russia would not compromise “in any form” on the five Ukrainian regions that Russia illegally annexed — which includes the entirety of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts and Crimea. Ryabkov notably stated that Russia has “five [regions] altogether,” effectively reiterating the Kremlin’s demand that Ukraine give up unoccupied parts of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts to Russia, and therefore signaling that Russia remains unlikely to agree to any ceasefire that would freeze the current frontline. Ryabkov reiterated Russia’s theory of victory — which claims that Russia will inevitably win by outlasting Ukrainian resilience and Western support — by stating that the end of Russia’s war in Ukraine depends on when Ukrainian supporters “recognize the inevitable outcome of [Russian] success.” Ryabkov also stated that Russia’s whole “purpose” of war in Ukraine is to have Ukrainians find out that they belong in Russia, effectively restating the Kremlin’s long-term goal of establishing control over Ukraine’s government and its people, not just its land.[5] Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov similarly reiterated on December 16 that Russia wants to “end this war” but seeks to achieve its goals, which ISW assesses include decapitating and replacing the Ukrainian government, destroying the Ukrainian military, and undermining Western unity.[6] Peskov also rejected the Ukrainian-proposed and US-supported idea of a Christmas truce.[7] The Kremlin has been effectively rejecting key points of various peace deal proposals, including the original US-proposed 28-point peace deal, such as reliable security guarantees for Ukraine or territorial swaps.[8]
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- The Council of the European Union confirmed that European countries and the United States will provide “robust” security guarantees to Ukraine as part of the peace deal to end Russia’s war in Ukraine.
- The Kremlin explicitly rejected US and European offers to provide Ukraine with “NATO-like” security guarantees as part of a peace deal and continued to signal its unwillingness to compromise on Russia’s territorial claims to Ukraine’s sovereign territory.
- Russia launched an information campaign to frame the European Union and individual European countries as an enemy of the Russian people comparable to Nazi Germany in an effort to further militarize Russian society.
- The Kremlin is trying to downplay ongoing Ukrainian counterattacks in Kupyansk as Russian ultranationalist milbloggers continue to acknowledge the severity of the situation for the Russian forces.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Pokrovsk and marginally advanced near Kupyansk. Russian forces recently advanced in the Dobropillya and Kostyantynivka-D
https://t.co/qsV85lX0XA
The Russian Black Sea Fleet denied the loss of a Russian submarine as the result of a Ukrainian unmanned underwater vehicle (UUV) strike against the Novorossiysk Naval Base on the night of December 14 to 15 Russian Black Sea Fleet Spokesperson Captain 1st Rank Alexey Rulev claimed on December 15 that Ukrainian reports of the sinking of a Russian submarine in Novorossiysk are false and that no vessels suffered damages in the strike, and Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD)-run TV network Zvezda published footage on December 16 allegedly showing the undamaged submarine.[14] An open-source intelligence (OSINT) analyst assessed that the Ukrainian UUV detonated 20 meters from the Russian Project 636 Varshavyanka-class (NATO Kilo-class) submarine and noted that the Zvezda-published footage does not show the stern of the submarine, which was closest to the explosion site.[15] Another OSINT analyst noted that satellite imagery taken on December 16 shows that the submarine has not moved since the strike, potentially indicating damage to the submarine.[16] Ukrainian Navy Spokesperson Captain Third Rank Dmytro Pletenchuk reported that the Black Sea Fleet now only fields two submarines capable of carrying Kalibr cruise missiles following the strike.[17] Russian milbloggers noted that Ukraine’s ability to conduct a UUV strike inside the ostensibly secure Novorossiysk Naval Base is a serious security lapse, and reported that Ukrainian forces apparently hacked a surveillance camera at the Novorossiysk Naval Base headquarters to provide footage of the strike.[18] ISW cannot assess whether the Ukrainian UUV strike damaged the submarine from the available open-source information at this time.
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General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine
Operational information as of 22:00 on December 16, 2025 regarding the Russian invasion
In total, there have been 255 combat engagements since the beginning of this day. Ukrainian defenders continue to resolutely repel enemy attempts to advance deeper into our territory, inflicting fire damage on them. Russian invaders carried out 55 air strikes, dropping 127 guided bombs. In addition, they used 1,964 kamikaze drones and carried out 2,869 shelling attacks on the positions of our troops and populated areas.
- Fifteen combat clashes took place in the North-Slobozhansky and Kursk directions. The enemy carried out three air strikes, dropping eight guided bombs, and carried out 102 shelling attacks, including seven from multiple launch rocket systems.
- Today, the enemy attacked nine times in the South Slobozhanskyi direction in the areas of the settlements of Prylipka, Synelnykove, and in the direction of Izbitske, Obukhivka, and Kolodyazne.
- In the Kupiansk direction, the enemy carried out 24 attacks in the direction of Kupiansk, Petropavlivka, Kucherivka, Pishchane, Novoplatonivka, Holubivka, and Nova Kruhlyakivka. Three combat engagements are ongoing.
- In the Lyman direction, the Defense Forces repelled 27 assaults in the Torsky area and towards the settlements of Lyman, Stepove, Koroviy Yar, Zarichne, Drobysheve, Novoselivka, Stavy, and Hluschenkove. Two clashes are ongoing.
- In the Sloviansk direction, the enemy attacked four times in the areas of Siversk, Serebryanka, and towards Pazeno. One combat engagement is currently ongoing.
- In the Kramatorsk direction, the enemy attacked the positions of our defenders once in the direction of Bondarno.
- In the Kostyantynivka direction, there were 16 combat clashes today. The enemy attempted to storm the positions of Ukrainian units near Pleshchiivka, Ivanopil, Rusyn Yar, Yablunivka, and in the direction of Sofiivka.
- In the Pokrovsk direction, since the beginning of this day, the enemy has attacked 60 times in the areas of the settlements of Kotlyne, Udachne, and in the direction of Rivne, Myrnohrad, Rodynske, Hryshyne, Zvirovo, Serhiivka, Novopavlivka, Filiya, Novoye Shakhovoye, Dorozhne, and Sukhetske. Six of these attacks are currently ongoing.
According to preliminary data, 220 occupiers have been neutralized in this direction today, 143 of whom are irretrievably dead. In addition, Ukrainian soldiers destroyed three tanks, 12 vehicles, four armored combat vehicles, one motorcycle, nine unmanned aerial vehicles, five pieces of special equipment, and two personnel shelters. Three vehicles, a BM-21 Grad multiple launch rocket system, and seven enemy personnel shelters were damaged.
- In the Oleksandrivka direction, Ukrainian defenders repelled 20 attacks by invaders in the areas of the settlements of Zelenyi Hai, Sichneve, Krasnohirsk, Zlagoda, Rybne, and in the direction of Ivanivka, Iskra, Oleksandrohrad, Verbove, and Pryvilne. The enemy launched an air strike in the area of the settlement of Ivanivka.
- In the Huliaipole direction, there were 28 combat engagements in the area of the settlement of Solodke and in the direction of Varvarivka, Huliaipole. The enemy carried out air strikes using guided aerial bombs on Vozdvyzhivka and Zaliznychne.
- In the Orikhiv direction, the enemy made eight unsuccessful attempts to break through our defenses in the areas of the settlements of Shcherbaky, Stepove, and in the directions of Mala Tokmachka, Novoandriivka, and Primorske.
- There were no significant changes in the situation in other directions.
Glory to the Ukrainian defenders!
Glory to Ukraine!
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Russia:Ukraine::US:Venezuela
