Amid the waking hell of the second Trump administration, it’s hard not to pine for 2028. And the Democratic presidential primaries are just over two years away, so it’s a great time to take stock of the prospects—and what better way than to rank them?
Things will change a lot in the next two years, but the polling firm Echelon Insights has been conducting regular surveys of the prospective 2028 field since days after the 2024 election. And here are the six Democrats who have polled at an average of 5% or better in the four most recent surveys.
Let’s say that again: This is a ranking of current support, not a ranking of preference.
Former Vice President Kamala Harris.
1. Kamala Harris
Maybe Democrats just can’t let her go. And maybe she isn’t done, either.
Harris, the former vice president who lost the 2024 election, has led all but two of Echelon’s 11 polls on the topic. That’s no doubt due to the fact that 95% of U.S. adults know who she is, according to YouGov, and name recognition is a major reason why 96% of House incumbents running for reelection won their races in 2024.
In other words, her performance is primarily because people already know her. But her high spot probably won’t last. Her average support in Echelon’s four most recent surveys is 22%, but her support has steadily dropped over the past year, falling to just 17% in November before rebounding slightly to 22% in December.
The reason for that slide is obvious: Democrats’ fondness for her is fading as we get further away from the 2024 election—an election she lost, after all. But not only did she lose the Electoral College, she was also just the second Democrat in the past 35 years to lose the popular vote.
As the nostalgia for the highs of her feel-good campaign continues to wear off, and as other Democrats boost their national profiles, it’s easy to imagine her falling off the top of this list—if she does decide to give it another go.
California Gov. Gavin Newsom.
2. Gavin Newsom
Has anyone ever wanted it more?
Despite resembling a villainous landlord who wants to evict the Muppets, Newsom has situated himself as the Anti-Trump. California’s governor will sue Trump liberally, fight back on Trump’s attempts to rig the midterm elections, and even mock Trump’s style of posting online. All of this has caused him to dominate the news compared with other potential 2028 contenders.
In the past 90 days, Google searches for Newsom easily outpaced those of Harris and other potential Democratic contenders, demonstrating his ability to grab headlines—a critical skill in a crowded primary.
No doubt as a result, he became the first name to top Harris in Echelon’s polling, doing so in both of its November and December surveys.
A sign of potential trouble for him is that despite his large national profile, YouGov finds that only 32% of Democrats have a favorable view of him—unusually low among the top 2028 prospects. That’s likely due to his slippery style of politics, which shifts rapidly based on the political winds. For instance, he was a strong advocate for single-payer health care in 2018, only to retreat from it in 2022. The same thing has happened with trans rights, immigrant rights, and more.
With Newsom, you’re never quite sure what his core beliefs are, other than amassing power. But maybe voters don’t mind that too much. After all, it worked out pretty well for Trump.
Former Transportation Secretary Pete Buttigieg.
3. Pete Buttigieg
Mayor Pete has risen further and stuck around longer than most expected. He led the Transportation Department under former President Joe Biden, and since Trump retook the White House, Buttigieg has kept himself relevant through his willingness to go on Fox News and podcasts, pitching himself to voters wary of Democrats.
Three-fourths of Americans know Buttigieg’s name, and he’s well liked among Democrats, per YouGov. As a result, he pulls in an average of 10% support across the four most recent surveys from Echelon.
But Buttigieg faces big hurdles if he runs.
For one, he’s married to a man. Despite the nation’s progress on LGBTQ+ rights over the past 20 years, 1 in 3 Americans still finds same-sex relations to be morally wrong, according to Gallup. While many of those homophobes are unlikely to ever vote for a Democrat, a recent study also found that support for his candidacy in the 2020 Democratic primary decreased when voters were made aware of his sexuality.
Buttigieg also has some constituency hang-ups. During the 2020 primary, he received almost no support from Black voters, a key base for the Democratic Party. Instead, his support was driven by highly educated white voters. In other words, if Democrats want to expand their multicultural coalition in 2028, Buttigieg will have to put in a lot more effort than he did last time.
New York Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.
4. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez
Ocasio-Cortez has the second-best favorability and is basically tied with Newsom in name recognition, though she scores only fourth-best on average in the polling (6%).
But the data might undercut the passion of the New York representative’s fans, who skew younger and more liberal. Many of the Democrats who like her love her. It’s why thousands turned out, even in red states, to hear her and Vermont Sen. Bernie Sanders speak. Such dedicated fans would likely give her an edge in building out a canvassing operation.
What stands in her way? Well, despite her charisma and moving speeches, she is a democratic socialist in a nation still skeptical of that label. Though the broad strokes of her platform are popular, some of her policies will face severe scrutiny if she runs. For example, she wants to abolish Immigration and Customs Enforcement—she even sells “Abolish ICE” hats—but it’s a view shared by only 27% of Americans, according to YouGov.
There’s some debate over how much moderation matters in elections, but the fact it could be an issue may scare Democratic voters. If Ocasio-Cortez ran and picked up steam, it’s easy to imagine the Democratic establishment consolidating around a moderate alternative as they did in 2020, when various center-left candidates dropped out and endorsed Joe Biden in order to block Sanders from winning the nomination.
There’s also the possible issue of Ocasio-Cortez’s age. If elected president in 2028, she would be 39 on Inauguration Day 2029, making her the youngest president ever. (Currently, the youngest is Theodore Roosevelt, who took office at 42.)
That may be why she stays out of the 2028 presidential race and instead runs for Senate, which she is reportedly also considering. Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer’s term is up that year, and his approval rating has been in the dumps.
New Jersey Sen. Cory Booker.
5. Cory Booker
Remember that speech?
Early in Trump’s new term, Booker delivered a record-breaking 25-hour rebuke of the president on the Senate floor. And it lifted him into second place (11%) in Echelon’s April poll of the hypothetical 2028 field, which was conducted about two weeks later.
But if you’ve already forgotten that speech, you’re not alone. Just over one month later, his support was half that, at 6%. And it’s been sliding ever since.
If he runs in 2028, he’s sure to face the same problems that dogged him when he ran in 2020: He wasn’t interesting enough to get attention, and his fundraising from business executives and Wall Street types reeked of corporate politics, which Democrats are generally sour on.
In 2020, he dipped out of the primary before the first ballot was cast. Currently, it’s hard to see what would make 2028 any different.
Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro.
6. Josh Shapiro
Shapiro has the best electability argument among the top candidates in our data. The governor of swingy Pennsylvania, he won his 2022 race by a huge 15-point margin. That said, his performance was boosted by the race’s exceptionally weak Republican candidate, Doug Mastriano, an election denier who chartered buses to Washington on Jan. 6, 2021, and was shown on video to be near the Capitol riot.
Despite the Keystone State’s purple tint, Shapiro enjoys a surprising level of popularity, with 62% of the state’s voters approving of his job as governor. By all reports, he’s proved to be a generally effective executive. Heck, he rebuilt an interstate bridge in the 12 days after it collapsed.
If he runs, Shapiro, who is Jewish, would no doubt be subjected to antisemitism—in fact, he already has been—but polls suggest voters are very open to voting for a Jewish candidate for president.
Perhaps his larger concern in winning a primary is whether he can draw the electorate’s attention. His anti-Trump efforts this year have barely made a ripple. He has also strongly defended Israel amid its brutal attacks on the Gaza Strip, and he’s lambasted pro-Palestitian protests on U.S. college campuses, though he appears more willing to criticize Israel’s conduct as of late. Regardless, his broader response could meet a chilly reception from Democratic voters nationwide, who have greatly soured on Israel.
The others
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Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker has been a ready anti-Trump voice, but the biggest question is how he’d make a stronger pitch than Newsom, who is much more well-known and commands more headlines. Also, as a billionaire who recently shrugged off winning $1.4 million playing blackjack in Vegas, Pritzker cuts something of an awkward figure to lead a party in which very, very few think billionaires have a positive effect on society.
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Arizona Sen. Mark Kelly, the baldest man who ever lived, is a rumored 2028 candidate, though he hasn’t been the most prominent Democrat on the Hill, unless you count that time Trump targeted him for killing.
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Though often mentioned in 2028 talk, Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has mostly faded into the background of Trump’s second term—when she doesn’t pop up and tarnish her credibility. All this to say, if you’re not making waves as Trump runs ripshod over the nation, then what are you doing?
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Kentucky Gov. Andy Beshear has by far the best electability argument of any potential candidate. Trump won the Bluegrass State by nearly 31 points in 2024, the year after Beshear won it by 5 points. That said, Beshear has a small national profile—and that’ll be a deep hole to climb out of if he chooses to challenge the big names on this list.
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Arizona Sen. Ruben Gallego, Maryland Gov. Wes Moore, Connecticut Sen. Chris Murphy, and California Rep. Ro Khanna are often mentioned as possible 2028 contenders, but in Echelon’s polls, all of them regularly score less than 1% support, if they’re included at all. As things stand, they seem like clear also-ran material, if they even run in the first place.
There’s the field right now, though it’s early and there’s always a chance a new name makes waves.
Who do you want to see at the top of the Democratic ticket in 2028?
