Trump repeats his Iraq war “we should have gotten the oil” trope with Ukraine’s mineral resources.
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Trump admits his intended goal for Ukraine:
"We're telling Ukraine they have very valuable rare earth, we want what we put up to go in terms of a guarantee...we're looking to do a deal with Ukraine where they're going to secure what we're giving them with their rare earth and other things."
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— Anonymous (@youranoncentral.bsky.social) February 3, 2025 at 2:59 PM
Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of February 2 to 3.
The Ukrainian Air Force stated that Russian forces launched 71 Shahed and decoy drones from Oryol, Kursk, and Bryansk oblasts; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Primorsko-Akhtarsk, Krasnodar Krai; and occupied Crimea.[76] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 38 drones over Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, and Khmelnytskyi oblasts; and that 25 decoy drones were "lost," likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference. Ukrainian officials stated that Russian drones caused damage in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Cherkasy oblasts.[77]
Russian forces continue to modernize their strike weapons to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and cause more damage. Ihor Chernyak, the head of the explosives department at the Ukrainian National Police's Sumy Oblast branch stated on February 3 that Russian forces use Shahed drones made of carbon or hydrocarbon fiber and "Gerber" drones made of foam plastic.[78] Chernyak noted that Russian forces use the Gerber drones, which are light and cheap to produce, to overwhelm Ukrainian air defenses and have started equipping the Gerber drones with high-explosive fragmentation warheads weighing up to three kilograms. Shahed drone warheads weigh between 50 and 90 kilograms, but Chernyak noted that the Gerber drones are still able to cause significant damage. Chernyak reported that Russian forces are also launching modified missiles, including Iskander missiles and Kh-59 cruise missiles with cluster warheads. Ukrainian military expert Serhiy Flesh reported on February 2 that Russian forces have started to equip Gerber drones with warheads, including high-explosive fragmentation warheads, weighing three to five kilograms.[79]
Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces shot down 38 drones over Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Kyiv, Chernihiv, Cherkasy, Zaporizhia, Dnipropetrovsk, Vinnytsia, and Khmelnytskyi oblasts
Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes against Russian oil and gas infrastructure in Volgograd and Astrakhan oblasts on the night of February 2 to 3. The Ukrainian General Staff reported that elements of the Ukrainian Security Service (SBU), Special Operations Forces (SSO), and other Ukrainian forces struck Lukoil's Volgograd Oil Refinery in Volgograd City and the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant near Astrakhan City.[4] The Ukrainian General Staff reported that the strike damaged the primary processing units at the Volgograd refinery and that a fire started at the Astrakhan plant. Ukrainian Center for Countering Disinformation Head Lieutenant Andriy Kovalenko noted that the Volgograd Oil Refinery is one of the top ten refineries in Russia and that the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant processes gas condensate and produces gas and diesel fuel.[5] A source in the SBU told Radio Liberty that the Volgograd Oil Refinery processes almost six percent of all Russian oil and that the Astrakhan Gas Processing Plant processes 12 billion cubic meters of gas condensate per year.[6] Russian opposition outlet Astra reported that an employee at the Astrakhan plant stated that the strike damaged a gas condensate processing plant.[7] Volgograd Oblast Governor Andrey Bocharov claimed that Russian forces repelled a massive Ukrainian drone strike against the oblast overnight and intercepted and neutralized "most" of the drones.[8] Bocharov claimed that falling drone debris caused a fire at an oil refinery and short-term power outages. Astrakhan Oblast Governor Igor Babushkin claimed that Ukrainian forces attempted to conduct a drone strike against fuel and energy facilities and that a fire started after a drone fell.[9] The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) claimed that Russian forces destroyed 25 drones over Volgograd Oblast and seven over Astrakhan Oblast.[10] Ukrainian forces previously struck the Lukoil refinery in Volgograd City on the night of January 30 to 31.[11]
Ukrainian forces continue to innovate with drone operations to maintain their technological advantage over Russia and bring about battlefield effects. Commander of the Ukrainian Unmanned Systems Forces Colonel Vadym Sukharevskyi stated in an interview with Radio Liberty published on February 3 that Ukrainian forces are working on developing new technologies but are not disclosing them for as long as possible in order to maintain the technological initiative and prevent Russian forces from making their own analogues.[12] Sukharevskyi reported that the Unmanned Systems Forces conducted over 220 strikes against Russian territory in 2024 using over 3,500 weapons. Sukharevskyi noted that Ukrainian forces have struck over 15 "Buk-M3" and "Tor" air defense systems in December 2024 and January 2025 and noted that Ukrainian forces stuck a "Buk-M3" 57 kilometers from the frontline in mid-January 2025. Sukharevskyi reported that Ukrainian forces' use of first-person view (FPV) drones to hunt Russian reconnaissance drones has led to a tenfold decrease in Russian reconnaissance drone usage. Sukharevskyi highlighted Ukraine's production of first-person view (FPV) and other drones made entirely of Ukrainian-made components and stated that Ukraine is working to develop a way to counter Russian forces' fiber optic cable FPV drones and to produce its own fiber optic cable drones. Ukrainian Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on February 3 that the Ukrainian military continues to increase the number of unmanned systems in formations and units of the Ground Forces, Airborne Assault Forces, Naval Infantry Corps, and Unmanned Systems Forces.[13] ISW continues to assess that Russian and Ukrainian forces are engaged in a technological offense-defense race to adapt and innovate their strike and anti-drone capabilities and that Ukraine's ability to field technological adaptations at scale ahead of Russian adaptations is crucial for Ukraine's ability to offset Russia's quantitative materiel advantages.[14]
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Russian forces continued to suffer high losses in January 2025 despite a slower rate of advance as compared with previous months in late 2024. The Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MoD) reported on February 3 that Russian forces suffered 48,240 casualties – over three Russian motorized rifle divisions worth of personnel – in January 2025, making January the second-highest month of losses since Russia's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.[1] ISW has observed geolocated evidence to assess that Russian forces gained roughly 498 square kilometers in January in Ukraine and Kursk Oblast, or roughly 16.1 square kilometers per day. The available figures suggest Russian forces suffered roughly 96 casualties per square kilometer of territory seized. The Ukrainian MoD reported that Russian forces suffered 48,670 casualties in December 2024 – their highest monthly casualty rate since the start of Russia's full-scale invasion – and ISW assessed that Russian forces gained a total of 593 square kilometers in December 2024. The roughly 100-square-kilometer decrease in seized territory between December 2024 and January 2025, coupled with a similar monthly casualty rate, indicates that Russian forces are taking the same high level of losses despite achieving fewer territorial advances in the near term. ISW previously observed that Russian advances slowed from November 2024 to December 2024.[2] ISW previously assessed that the Russian military command likely tolerated record levels of personnel casualties from September 2024 through November 2024 to facilitate larger territorial gains, but it remains unclear whether the Russian military command will be willing to sustain such casualties if Russian forces' rate of advance continues to decline as Russian forces are advancing on more heavily defended settlements such as Pokrovsk.[3]
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- Russian forces continued to suffer high losses in January 2025 despite a slower rate of advance as compared with previous months in late 2024.
- Ukrainian forces reportedly conducted drone strikes against Russian oil and gas infrastructure in Volgograd and Astrakhan oblasts on the night of February 2 to 3.
- Ukrainian forces continue to innovate with drone operations to maintain their technological advantage over Russia and bring about battlefield effects.
- The United Nations (UN) Human Rights Monitoring Mission in Ukraine (HRMMU) expressed concern about the "sharp rise" in reports of Russian forces executing Ukrainian prisoners of war (POWs).
- Ukraine's Commander-in-Chief General Oleksandr Syrskyi stated on February 3 that Ukraine has started implementing organizational reforms to transition the Ukrainian Armed Forces into a "corps structure."
- Unspecified actors assassinated Armen Sargsyan, the founder of the "Arbat" Special Purpose Battalion, who has been involved in Russia's hybrid activities and invasions of Ukraine since 2014.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova, and Russian forces recently advanced near Kupyansk, Borova, Lyman, Chasiv Yar, Toretsk, Pokrovsk, Kurakhove, and in the Dnipro direction.
- The Russian government is expanding the federal "Time of Heroes" program, which aims to install Kremlin-selected veterans into government positions, to occupied Ukraine as part of long-term efforts to integrate occupied Ukraine into Russia.
https://t.co/Two18Zu4Cv
Russian forces continued offensive operations in the Ukrainian salient in Kursk Oblast on February 3 but did not make any confirmed advances. Russian sources claimed that fighting continued near Sverdlikovo, Maryevka, Pogrebki (all northwest of Sudzha), and Lebedevka (southeast of Korenevo).[26
Order of Battle: Elements of the Russian 106th Airborne (VDV) Division and drone specialists from the Russian Rubicon Center for Advanced Unmanned Technologies are reportedly operating in Kursk Oblast.[28] Elements of the Russian 34th Motorized Rifle Brigade (49th Combined Arms Army [CAA], Southern Military District [SMD]) are reportedly operating near Pogrebki.[29]
Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky stated on February 2 that the January 31 Ukrainian strike against a Russian command post in Rylsk (northwest of Sudzha) killed dozens of Russian and North Korean officers.[30]
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