On Monday morning, Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum announced that the 25% tariffs on Mexican exports to the US had been postponed for 30 days. On Monday afternoon, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau announced that penalties on US imports from Canada had also been delayed.
Trump will spin this as a victory. ‘I got what I wanted and more — much more. It was the best deal ever.’ The reality is otherwise. Both Mexico and Canada made vague promises. But there will be no real change — or money spent. Trump had seen the polls — and realized people knew his tariffs would slam their pocketbooks.
Even he had to admit that his ill-considered nationalism was financially catastrophic. It would spur inflation. And the promised income to the treasury from tariffs would prove far less than the federal subsidies he would have to send to American farmers and manufacturers to keep them onside. So he caved.
Sheinbaum even got him to do something on her wish list — commit to stopping the flow of American guns to Mexican drug cartels. She announced:
"The United States commits to work to stop the trafficking of high powered weapons to Mexico."
She also promised (caveat: Twitter link) to send 10,000 additional Mexican national guards to the border. Why not? They have to be somewhere. They might as well be there.
Trudeau explained in a tweet that Canada would pony up $200 million ($139 million US) to establish a “strike force”, watch the border “24/7”, call drug traffickers “terrorists”, and implement an “intelligence directive”. That is bureaucratese for “do nothing” at a “minimal cost” to make the problem “go away.”
“Canada is making new commitments to appoint a Fentanyl Czar, we will list cartels as terrorists, ensure 24/7 eyes on the border, launch a Canada- U.S. Joint Strike Force to combat organized crime, fentanyl and money laundering. I have also signed a new intelligence directive on organized crime and fentany
In fairness, Trudeau also tweeted that
“Canada is implementing our $1.3 billion border plan — reinforcing the border with new choppers, technology and personnel, enhanced coordination with our American partners, and increased resources to stop the flow of fentanyl. Nearly 10,000 frontline personnel are and will be working on protecting the border.”
However, I suspect the $1.3 billion ($900 million US) was money they were already spending. And most of the 10,000 frontline personnel are already on the frontline.
Of course, it wasn’t just carrots. Mexico and Canada had both swung a stick with retaliatory tariffs on the US. Trump soon backed down. Faced with ‘victims’ who both dismissed him as a loudmouth and fought back, the bully cut and ran.
The odds are remote that our two neighbors will be again troubled by Trump tariffs. And his vacuous threats against the EU will be met with equal scorn. The Democrats should pay attention.