Last week I wrote about the discovery of yet another fairly small (130-330 feet wide) Earth-crossing asteroid with a non-negligible chance (>1%) of actually colliding with our planet in the not-too-distant future (Dec 22, 2032, to be precise). Back then the European Space Agency (ESA) had pegged the probability of an impact at 1.2% (compared to a JPL estimate of 1.3%).
It seems that chance for a too-close encounter has now almost doubled to about 2.2% according to the ESA’s latest set of observations. CNN also has a more in-depth look at how we go about tracking these potentially hazardous space rocks:
Two international asteroid response groups endorsed by the United Nations — the International Asteroid Warning Network, chaired by NASA, and the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group, chaired by ESA — have been activated in response to the threat level.
The International Asteroid Warning Network is responsible for coordinating the organizations involved in tracking and characterizing the details of the asteroid — and if necessary, developing strategies to assess the consequences of an impact.
Meanwhile, the Space Mission Planning Advisory Group, which recently convened in Vienna, Austria, will provide recommendations and evaluate options for how to mitigate a potential impact if the asteroid remains a threat. Possible mitigation tactics include deflecting the asteroid in space, like NASA’s demonstration of the Double Asteroid Redirection Test in 2022, or evacuating potentially affected regions on the ground, Farnocchia said.
The group is continuing to monitor 2024 YR4 and will meet again in late April or early May as the space rock disappears from view to reassess whether any recommendations need to be made, according to the ESA.
“If 2024 YR4 remained a threat at the end of the current observing window, mitigation measures might be considered,” Farnocchia said. “But talk of mitigation is premature. The priority right now is to keep observing 2024 YR4 and reduce its positional uncertainties in 2032, since this is likely to rule out the impact.”
And for those who can’t wait to see what 2032 might bring, there is actually a chance to observe the even bigger space rock Apophis (which once had an estimated 2.7% chance of smashing into us) with the naked eye when it comes within ~25,000 miles of Earth on April 13, 2029 — though only those in Europe, Africa, and parts of Asia will be in a position to do so.
