Just in the last couple hours as I write this …
… Two polls from Canada have just been released. Leger and EKOS.
Leger has a pretty good reputation. EKOS has a leftist bias, so says many people, but their margin in favor of the Liberals has now become so extreme it’s hard not to think something is afoot — especially since even the Leger poll has dramatic movement toward the Liberals.
Note that the color schemes for these polls are reversed for the US: Red is the Liberal party and blue is the Conservatives. NDP (New Democratic Party) is orange, Greens are green (duh!), Block Quebec is light blue with the diamond, and purple is the right-wing People’s Party of Canada.
First Leger ...
Federal Liberals and Tories now in a dead heat, new poll indicates
The federal Liberals and the Conservatives are running neck-and-neck in voter support, a new Leger online poll suggests.
The poll of Canadians’ voting intentions has both parties sitting at 37 per cent.
It shows a drop of six points for the Conservatives and a seven per cent jump for Liberals since Feb. 24, while the NDP is down two per cent to 11 per cent.
Leger surveyed 1,548 Canadians between March 7 and March 10 — which means the poll wrapped up just after Liberals picked Mark Carney as the new party leader and prime minister-designate.
Now the EKOS poll …
… This was such a stunner, the head of EKOS merely teased everyone on his X account, warning them to get a screen shot before he took it down shortly afterward. Fortunately several people did.
Are you ready? Posted on a skeptic’s X account:
And then he modeled the outcome. Once again, are you ready?
Hold onto your seat.
EDIT #1:
Here are the official numbers for the Leger poll:
The previous version had the Conservatives over the Liberals 38-35, so this is 3-point move toward the Liberals in this poll in just a few weeks.
EDIT #2
The same person who modeled the EKOS poll has now also modeled the Leger poll. And even with that poll tied in the popular vote, Liberals have a majority in Parliament seats!
