A very intense warming in the stratosphere ,breaking up the upper half of the polar vortex, has spun momentum downwards into the polar jet stream that is diving into the western United States. At the same time strong surface Bermuda high pressure has built up over the Atlantic ocean. An extremely intense wind field has developed driving warm humid air off of the western Gulf of Mexico, which is at near record warm temperatures, into the Mississippi River Valley. This evening warm humid air blasting up from the Gulf will be overrun by the intense jet stream and cold air aloft over the Mississippi River valley. Hell is going to break loose. And that’s just the beginning. Tomorrow evening in the deep south is likely to be even worse as another jet stream impulse runs over Gulf air blasting up from the Gulf of Mexico.
Deadly tornado outbreak likely in the deep south on Saturday March 15.
The day 2 outlook is extraordinarily bad. www.spc.noaa.gov/…
UPDATE: A Rare level 5 HIGH RISK outlook for tomorrow was just issued:
Day 2 Convective Outlook NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK 1230 PM CDT Fri Mar 14 2025 Valid 151200Z - 161200Z
...THERE IS A HIGH RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PARTS OF MS/AL...
...SUMMARY... A tornado outbreak is likely on Saturday across the central Gulf Coast States and Deep South into the Tennessee Valley. Numerous significant tornadoes, some of which should be long-track and potentially violent, are expected on Saturday afternoon and evening. The most dangerous tornado threat should begin across eastern Louisiana and Mississippi during the late morning to afternoon, spread across Alabama late day into the evening, and reach western parts of the Florida Panhandle and Georgia Saturday night.
A very rare level 5 high risk of severe storms outlook was issued by NOAA for tomorrow afternoon and night. A deadly tornado outbreak is likely in the deep south tomorrow.
end update…..
There’s an impressive technical discussion by the severe weather specialists, but the bottom line is that multiple high end long track tornadoes are expected to ravage the deep south Saturday night.
Several tornadic supercells are expected to develop within this cluster by mid to late afternoon as the low-level jet intensifies. Multiple long-track high-end tornadoes will be possible. The greatest tornado threat is expected to shift into Alabama by early to mid evening, with a significant tornado threat also impacting parts of middle Tennessee. In addition, supercells are expected to grow upscale into a developing MCS, with potential to produce significant severe wind gusts above 70 knots and large hail. The severe threat is expected to develop eastward into parts of Georgia and the southern Appalachians by mid to late evening. A severe threat should continue into the overnight.
An extremely strong low level jet stream is forecast by the GFS model to develop over the central Carolinas midday Sunday which will create intense low level spin favorable for severe storm and tornado formation.
Unfortunately, I think that NOAA is likely to raise the threat level for the central and eastern Carolinas on Sunday based on forecast model runs that show a strong low level jet bring warm humid air from the south that’s overrun by a strong cold polar jet stream out of the west. The models are showing strong low level spin combined with pretty strong convective potential where I live in central North Carolina. We all need to pay close attention to our local experts for further developments.
This likely outbreak appears to be enhanced by warming oceans and what we call climate change. The intense end stratospheric warming may be a climate change enhanced phenomenon. Multiple scientific reports have predicted enhanced interactions between the stratosphere and surface weather as the oceans heat up and the climate warms.
The polar vortex has split into 3 parts after an intense stratospheric warming. This is likely the end collapse of the vortex for the winter of 2024-2025.
Stay safe. It’s likely to be a very dangerous situation in many parts of the U.S. this weekend.
