Russian forces conducted a series of drone strikes against Ukraine on the night of March 15 to 16.
The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Russian forces launched 90 Shahed and decoy drones from Bryansk City; Millerovo, Rostov Oblast; Shatalovo, Smolensk Oblast; and occupied Cape Chauda, Crimea.[76] The Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 47 Shahed and decoy drones over Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Odesa oblasts and that 33 decoy drones were “lost,” likely due to Ukrainian electronic warfare (EW) interference. Official Ukrainian sources reported that Russian drones damaged civilian infrastructure in Chernihiv, Kharkiv, Kyiv, and Odesa oblasts.[77] Chernihiv Oblast Military Administration Head Vyazheslav Chaus reported on March 16 that a Russian ballistic missile, possibly an Iskander-M missile, struck Semenivska Hromada and disrupted power in the area.[78]
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Ukrainian Air Force reported that Ukrainian forces downed 47 Shahed and decoy drones over Kharkiv, Poltava, Sumy, Cherkasy, Kyiv, Zhytomyr, Dnipropetrovsk, Donetsk, and Odesa oblasts
US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz stated on March 16 that Ukraine will receive unspecified security guarantees in exchange for unspecified territorial concessions.[1] Waltz also stated that the United States is considering "the reality of the situation on the ground" in diplomatic talks when discussing an end to the war in Ukraine.[2] It is not clear exactly what Waltz meant by "the reality of the situation on the ground." Russian officials have frequently used the narrative that any negotiations must consider the "realities on the ground" to refer to the current frontline in Ukraine and their claims of the inevitability of further Russian battlefield gains.[3] Waltz's acknowledgement that Ukraine will receive unspecified security guarantees is a key aspect of achieving US President Donald Trump's stated goal of securing a lasting peace in Ukraine, but stopping hostilities on indefensible lines would limit the effectiveness of security guarantees.
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The United Kingdom (UK) convened a virtual Coalition of the Willing summit on March 15 to reiterate support for Ukraine and discuss plans for peace. UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer chaired a virtual meeting with 29 international leaders, including Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky and officials from Europe, Canada, Australia, and New Zealand, who have agreed to continue pressuring Russia, supplying military aid to Ukraine, and tightening economic restraints on Russia "to weaken Putin's war machine and bring him to the [negotiating] table."[13] Starmer stated that the Kremlin's delay over the US ceasefire proposal contradicts Putin's stated desire for peace.[14]
An unnamed military source told The Sunday Times on March 16 that 35 countries within the coalition have agreed to supply weapons, logistics, and intelligence support aimed at deterring Putin from resuming offensive operations in the future.[15] The Sunday Times reported on March 16 that Starmer outlined plans to deploy a Western peacekeeping contingent of over 10,000 troops to Ukraine, and an unnamed senior official told the outlet that officials are working at an "unprecedented" speed to establish the contingent. Starmer stated that the coalition will reconvene on March 20 to accelerate efforts to support a potential peace deal in Ukraine.[16]
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- US National Security Advisor Mike Waltz stated on March 16 that Ukraine will receive unspecified security guarantees in exchange for unspecified territorial concessions.
- The current frontlines do not provide the strategic depth that Ukraine will need to reliably defend against renewed Russian aggression.
- Russian officials maintain their maximalist territorial claims over all occupied Ukraine and significant parts of unoccupied Ukraine, however.
- Russian officials have given no public indications that they are willing to make concessions on their territorial or security demands of Ukraine.
- Russia continues to seize on diplomatic engagements with the United States to normalize its war demands.
- The United Kingdom (UK) convened a virtual Coalition of the Willing summit on March 15 to reiterate support for Ukraine and discuss plans for peace.
- Ukrainian forces recently advanced near Borova and Russian forces advanced in Sumy Oblast and near Velyka Novosilka.
- The Russian Ministry of Defense (MoD) continues efforts to posture as solving issues with the Russian military.
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Russian officials maintain their maximalist territorial claims over all occupied Ukraine and significant parts of unoccupied Ukraine, however. Senior Kremlin officials, including Russian President Vladimir Putin, have consistently demanded that Ukraine surrender the entirety of Donetsk, Luhansk, Zaporizhia, and Kherson oblasts, including areas that Russian forces do not already occupy, and have reiterated these claims in recent weeks.[6] Russian state media has also recently amplified similar sentiments from Kremlin-affiliated mouthpieces.[7] Putin recently claimed that "Novorossiya" is an integral part of Russia, and Kremlin Spokesperson Dmitry Peskov defined "Novorossiya" as all of eastern and southern Ukraine including Kharkiv, Dnipropetrovsk, Odesa, and Mykolaiv oblasts.[8] Russia currently occupies a small portion of Kharkiv Oblast and the Kinburn Spit in Mykolaiv Oblast, and Russian forces are advancing towards the Dnipropetrovsk Oblast administrative border. Continued Kremlin statements demanding that Ukraine cede unoccupied Ukrainian territory indicate that the Kremlin and Putin remain committed to these territorial goals despite ongoing negotiations.
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Russian forces continued ground operations to push Ukrainian forces from their remaining positions in Kursk Oblast on March 16 but did not make confirmed advances.
A Ukrainian military observer reiterated that Russian forces have not surrounded Ukrainian forces in Kursk Oblast.[19] An assault company commander in the Russian 810th Naval Infantry Brigade (Black Sea Fleet) claimed on March 16 that Ukrainian drones continue to present a significant challenge for Russian forces in Kursk Oblast.[22] The Russian commander claimed that withdrawing Ukrainian forces are operating 300-400 drones in the brigade's area of responsibility (AoR) and that Russian recruits need better anti-drone training to prepare them to counter Ukrainian drones. The commander suggested that Ukrainian forces maintain "low-altitude air superiority" in Kursk Oblast despite Russian forces having established air superiority at higher altitudes using traditional systems, a phenomenon which appears to be common along a large portion of the frontline. ISW previously noted that military forces may struggle to establish and maintain low-altitude air superiority as low-altitude drone threats become increasingly prevalent in modern warfare.[23]
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