As many analysts and amateur observers — including me — suggested earlier this week, the impacts of federal firings and higher private sector layoffs last month did not hit the Bureau of Labor Statistics report released today. It reported a gain of 151,000 new jobs in February and a slight rise in the unemployment rate to 4.1%, remaining in the narrow range it has been for months. The job count is down slightly from the monthly average of 168,000 new jobs in 2024. Some media reported that the 151,000 was less than expected, but the range of forecasts by experts was 133,000-170,000.
The bureau also revised its December jobs tally slightly upward and an almost equal number downward for January, the latter from 143,000 to 125,000. Such adjustments for the previous two months are made in each jobs report, and are not due to political manipulation. That, of course, could change if President Trump were to replace the President Biden-appointed BLS chief for someone loyal to him and willing to rig the numbers.
Today’s report doesn’t mean there hasn’t been an economic cooling —signs of that are rife. Payroll firm ADP reported just 77,000 new hires in the private sector in February, far less than what was projected. Outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas said there were 172,017 job cuts in February, the highest monthly total in nearly five years. At the same time, it figured that some 62,000 of those cuts came from 17 different federal government agencies. There were just 151 federal government cuts in February 2024.
So why aren’t those reflected in today’s numbers? It’s because the surveys the BLS relies on to make its tally are completed during the second week of each month, specifically the week that contains the 12th of the month. So today’s report actually doesn’t measure February, but rather the second half of January and the first half of February. Since most of the federal layoffs were announced on Valentine’s Day, they aren’t included in today’s report that notes a decline of 10,000 in government employment.
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As with much of the last few years, job growth in February was strongest in health care and social assistance. Proposed cuts to Medicaid and other social programs could seriously hamper not only employment in these areas but also the valuable services they provide.
— Elise Gould (@elisegould.bsky.social) 2025-03-07T14:21:06.180Z
Lauren Kaori Gurley at The Washington Post reports:
“The jobs market has still been holding up pretty well,” said Sarah House, a senior economist at Wells Fargo. “But the outlook is deteriorating. And we’re looking at slower growth ahead after a pretty remarkable run for the U.S. economy over the past 2 or 3 years.”
In recent months, steady job creation, low unemployment levels and sparse layoffs have bolstered the view that the labor market remains on firm ground, despite cooling over 2023 and 2024. New filings for unemployment insurance fell nationally last week, according to Labor Department data released Thursday.
If they hold despite court decisions, the DOGE layoffs can be expected to hit in the next jobs report coming in early April. Investment banking advisory firm Evercore ISI suggests those layoffs and their private sector knock-off effects could hit 500,000 by year’s end.
