On Sunday evening (6:30 EST), Canada's Liberal Party will announce who will replace Justin Trudeau as its new chief. Around 151,000 party members have voted for a new leader — who, because of Canada's parliamentary system, will replace Trudeau as both party head and Prime Minister. Not that the new PM will have much power, as the liberals, while they have the most seats, do not have a majority in Canada's multi-party Parliament. They are essentially lame ducks until the next general election.
One of the new Liberal leader's responsibilities will be to pick that election's date — which must be held by October. Until a month ago, this didn't seem that important as the polls and consensus pointed to an easy Conservative Party win, regardless of when the election occurred.
Conservative Party head Pierre Poilievre will lead the country's political right into that next election. Until January 20, he appeared to be a shoo-in to win. His party had as much as a 29% margin over the Liberals. Poilievre was probably picking a chair for his desk at the Office of the Prime Minister and Privy Council.
But then Trump was inaugurated. He rolled out his Canada-punishing tariff plan and announced the country would make a suitable 51st state. To ice his dismissive cake, he called the Canadian Prime Minister "Governor Trudeau." Thanks to the butt-head butting in, the election's conclusion is now not foregone.
Poilievre is what the Canadians call a "Blue Tory." He is a free-market fiscal conservative. However, unlike the right in American politics — who hypocritically say they believe in 'small government' while also believing the government should tell the citizens how to live — he is not as invested in social conservatism.
Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre is vying to replace departing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.REUTERS/Patrick Doyle
Nevertheless, Poilievre had echoed much of the MAGA playbook. He attributed his previously good polling numbers to his war on "horrendous, utopian wokeism." In 2023, he had vowed to carry out:
"the biggest crackdown on crime in Canadian history" and "take back control of our border, take back control of immigration, take back control of spending, deficits and inflation."
In addition, he said, "We're going to cut bureaucracy, cut the consultants, cut foreign aid, cut back on corporate welfare to large corporations."
Many Canadians thought Poilievre was on to something. Now that they have seen what electing a far-right, anti-government vandal leads to — their ardor is cooling. Being a political animal, Poilievre sensed this shift in the wind. He has recently taken a harsher tone with Trump. Will it be enough to preserve his ascension? I don't know.
This brings us back to the Liberals. Who will be their, and Canada's, new leader? The race is between two leading candidates, front-runner Mark Carney and underdog Chrystia Freeland. They are both established, centrist policymakers.
Mark Carney, 59, is the former governor of the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England and is a prominent green investor. He spent his career before public service with Goldman Sachs. As a central banker, he won praise for steering Canada through the 2008 financial crisis and the UK through the Brexit insanity.
Despite being a finance guy, Carney is not your usual 'what's good for the rich will eventually be good for the poor' banker. In 2011, Carney referred to the Occupy Wall Street protests as "entirely constructive." He has called out wealth inequality and increasing CEO-worker pay gaps. In a December 2016 academic lecture, he pointed out that:
"The proportion of the wealth held by the richest 1% of Americans increased from 25% in 1990 to 40% in 2012 ... Globally, the share of wealth held by the richest 1% in the world rose from one-third in 2000 to one-half in 2010."
Freeland also has a significant career. She started as a journalist for The Financial Times, The Washington Post, and The Economist. From 1999 to 2001, Freeland served as the deputy editor of The Globe and Mail. She next worked as the managing director and editor of consumer news at Thomson Reuters.
In 2013, she was elected a Member of Parliament. In 2019, Trudeau picked her as his Deputy PM. In 2020, he made her Finance Minister. Her portfolio was so broad political commentators gave Freeland the informal title of "Minister of Everything." In December 2024, after clashing with Trudeau, she resigned. Given Trudeau's cratering popularity, this was a good career move.
Freeland does have an ace. Trump has attacked her. This aggression is hardly surprising as he has no idea how to deal with strong women who tell him to go feck himself. During his first presidency, she led the Canadian side in renegotiating the North Atlantic Free Trade Agreement. By all accounts, she drove a tough bargain and won concessions for Canada.
Trump has said, "Her behavior was totally toxic." And recently, in an interview with the British outlet The Spectator, he doubled down, saying: "She's a whack. She's absolutely terrible for the country."
Freeland was delighted. In one of her campaign ads, she said with a grin, "Donald Trump doesn't like me very much." On her Instagram, she posted a New York Times article about Bozo disparaging her, adding a dismissive caption: a manicure emoji. In an interview with The NY Times at her Toronto home last month, she said.
"I have a strategy when it comes to the single biggest challenge Canada is facing: fighting for Canada, standing up to Trump."
While Freeland and Carney are leading the race, anyone who likes putting money on a dark horse could bet on Karina Gould, 37. She has been trying to make her mark as a future leader of the party. She has differentiated herself from the others as more plainly spoken and left-leaning. In addition, Frank Baylis, 62, a businessman and former member of Parliament, is also running.
I cannot say, nor is it my place to say, who would be best for the Liberals in particular and Canada in general. But from south of the border, the two leading candidates at least seem well-qualified for the position. If any Canadian reads this, I would love to know your thoughts on the subject.
