(Note: This diary uses some of the same material as a previous one written before the results of the Liberal Party leadership election were released.)
Liberal Party members have voted for Mark Carney to replace the outgoing Justin Trudeau as their new leader with 85.9% of the vote. Because of Canada's parliamentary system, Carney will replace Trudeau as both party head and Prime Minister. Not that the new PM will have much power, as the liberals, while they have the most seats, do not have a majority in Canada's multi-party Parliament. They are essentially lame ducks until the next general election. But the news is not as grim today for Canada's center-left party as it was two months ago. (See discussion below.)
One of Carney's responsibilities will be to pick the next general election date, which must be held by October. Until a month ago, this didn't seem that important as the polls and consensus pointed to an easy Conservative Party win, regardless of when the election occurred.
Carney, 59, is the former governor of both the Bank of Canada and the Bank of England — that seems like a hell of an achievement. He spent his career before public service with Goldman Sachs. As a central banker, he won praise for steering Canada through the 2008 financial crisis and the UK through the Brexit insanity.
He is a believer in Canada's risk-averse approach to finance. In 2009, Fareed Zakaria wrote in a column for Newsweek:
"Canada has done more than survive this financial crisis. The country is positively thriving in it. Canadian banks are well capitalized and poised to take advantage of opportunities that American and European banks cannot seize."
Carney earned accolades for his leadership during the financial meltdown. He was named one of the Financial Times' "Fifty who will frame the way forward." Time Magazine named him to the 2010 Time 100. In May 2011, Reader's Digest annointed him "Editor's Choice for Most Trusted Canadian".
However, despite being a finance guy, Carney is not your usual 'what's good for the rich will eventually be good for the poor' banker. In 2011, Carney referred to the Occupy Wall Street protests as "entirely constructive." He has called out wealth inequality and increasing CEO-worker pay gaps. In a December 2016 academic lecture, he pointed out that:
"The proportion of the wealth held by the richest 1% of Americans increased from 25% in 1990 to 40% in 2012 ... Globally, the share of wealth held by the richest 1% in the world rose from one-third in 2000 to one-half in 2010."
In addition, he has invested heavily in green energy. Not just because it is the right thing to do morally. But because it’s also a good way to make money.
Carney is also well-educated. He graduated with a bachelor's degree in economics from Harvard in 1988. He continued his studies at Oxford University, earning a master's degree in 1993 and a doctoral degree in 1995.
On the right, Conservative Party head Pierre Poilievre will lead the country's political right into the election. Until January 20, he appeared to be a shoo-in to win. His party had as much as a 29% margin over the Liberals. Poilievre was probably picking a chair for his desk at the Office of the Prime Minister and Privy Council.
But then Trump was inaugurated. He rolled out his Canada-punishing tariff plan and announced the country would make a suitable 51st state. To ice his dismissive cake, he called the Canadian Prime Minister "Governor Trudeau." Thanks to the butt-head butting in, the election's conclusion is now not foregone.
Poilievre is what the Canadians call a "Blue Tory." He is a free-market fiscal conservative. However, unlike the right in American politics — who hypocritically say they believe in 'small government' while also believing the government should tell the citizens how to live — he is not as invested in social conservatism.
Conservative Party of Canada leader Pierre Poilievre is vying to replace departing Prime Minister Justin Trudeau.REUTERS/Patrick Doyle
Nevertheless, Poilievre had echoed much of the MAGA playbook. He attributed his previously good polling numbers to his war on "horrendous, utopian wokeism." In 2023, he had vowed to carry out:
"the biggest crackdown on crime in Canadian history" and "take back control of our border, take back control of immigration, take back control of spending, deficits and inflation."
In addition, he said, "We're going to cut bureaucracy, cut the consultants, cut foreign aid, cut back on corporate welfare to large corporations."
Many Canadians thought Poilievre was on to something. Now that they have seen what electing a far-right, anti-government vandal leads to — their ardor is cooling. Being a political animal, Poilievre sensed this shift in the wind. He has recently taken a harsher tone with Trump. Will it be enough to preserve his ascension? I don't know.
It would be irony worth savoring if the incompetent fascist wannabe Trump derailed Canada’s likely move to the right by uniting Canadians behind the Liberal Party. Will that happen? I don’t know. I am not an expert on Canadian politics. But a boy can dream.
