Since the beginning of Trump 2.0, the University of Michigan’s Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) — a measure of how Americans feel about the country’s economic prospects — has been heading south, On Friday, CNBC, ran a piece headlined: Consumer sentiment tumbles in April as inflation fears spike, University of Michigan survey shows. It reported a new Trump low in consumer’s expectations. The piece starts with a summary of the data:
Key Points
- The University of Michigan consumer survey’s mid-month reading on sentiment fell to 50.8, down from 57.0 in March and below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 54.6.
- Respondents’ expectation for inflation a year from now leaped to 6.7%, the highest level since November 1981 and up from 5% in March.
(Bolding mine)
The CNBC story fleshed out the details.
Consumer sentiment grew even worse than expected in April as the expected inflation level hit its highest since 1981, a closely watched University of Michigan survey showed Friday.
The survey’s mid-month reading on consumer sentiment fell to 50.8, down from 57.0 in March and below the Dow Jones consensus estimate for 54.6. The move represented a 10.9% monthly change and was 34.2% lower than a year ago. It was lowest reading since June 2022 and the second lowest in the survey’s history going back to 1952.
MAGAs may claim a silver lining by pointing out that Trump’s poor grade is still better than Biden’s low point (June 2022). However, that is clutching at straws. In 2022, the US was recovering from the COVID-19 pandemic. Inflation was hitting highs not seen since the Carter administration. The GOP (unlike today’s Democrats) was waging a united and effective campaign against a political opponent in the White House.
And most importantly, Biden’s numbers started to go up. And continued up until he left office with a final full-month grade of 74% (December 2024). Considering that, let’s ask which way Trump’s numbers are likely headed.
The country is suffering whiplash from Trump’s chaotic, capricious, and incompetent rollout of his signature economic policy, tariffs — which people now think is a dumbass idea anyway. A Reuters/Ipsos poll shows that 73% of Americans believe Trump’s tariffs will increase inflation. And 57% oppose them. (Note: this divergence suggests that 16% of citizens think tariffs will raise prices, but that is not enough to oppose them. Weird.)
Based on that, the odds are Trump’s numbers have not reached the bottom yet.
One thing sure is that far more people now blame Trump than Biden for the nation’s economic challenges. A CBS/YouGov poll shows that, in April, 54% (up from 34% in March) held Trump responsible for the country’s economic condition — while 21% (down from 38%) still blame Biden. That must be the ‘winning’ Trump likes to talk about.
(Images are from a YouTube video of CNN discussing the poll result — the video itself is at the bottom.)
People no longer believe the “It’s Biden’s fault” bullshit.
On the tariffs themselves, Trump’s numbers have cratered from his inauguration until now. Americans went from +2% favorable (48% vs 46%) on Trump’s signature economic policy to -16% unfavorable (42% vs 58%). That’s a yuge swing. Harry Enten (CNN’s data guy) puts it thus:
“That trend line is ridiculously awful for Trump. Americans have switched on a dime on the economy. On Donald Trump. In large part because of the tariffs, which they increasingly do not like.”
“It seemed good on paper”
The host, Jessica Dean, follows up:
“What is Trump’s biggest problem with [sic] these people?”
Enten replies:
“They don’t know what the heck Donald Trump is doing. It’s his approach. I mean, take a look here. Trump’s approach to tariffs and trade and the way he is going about it. Just 37% of Americans like it. Just look at this number — 63%, nearly 2/3rds dislike it.
Among independents, Jessica, it’s just 28%.”
Let’s remember that after you have turned out your base, it is those swing voters who decide the election. Enten continues by pointing out that it isn’t just the substance of Trump’s godawful ideas; it is the amateur-hour execution of the same.
“That’s not much of a surprise. Because one day. Donald Trump is saying one thing. The next, he’s saying another. One day, someone from his administration is saying one thing. The next, that same exact person is saying another. The message, simply put, is unclear.”
“Unclear” is a criminal understatement. Dean then asks:
“Overall, how does this affect his approval rating?”
Enten replies with bad news for the Mar-a-Lago moron. He points to a -6% approval rating, down 12 points from early February.
“He’s underwater for the first time in the CBS/YouGov poll — at least in his second term.
Again it’s the trend line that is so important here. And the trend line, and the American people are turning against Donald Trump. This is the worst poll that Trump has received in his second term, so far.”
Expectation meets reality. The result is not good.
At this rate, the numbers are going to get so bad even some Republican politicians will wonder if licking Trump’s ass is a career enhancer. However, the feeling here is that many MAGA politicos lack the spine to take a stand. They will instead embrace inertia and go down with the ship.
Here is the video.
