The outcome of Tuesday's elections in Wisconsin and Florida should have Republicans in a state of panic since the results showed that the backlash to President Donald Trump and co-President Elon Musk’s agenda could sink the GOP’s chances in the 2026 midterm elections.
In Wisconsin, Democratic-backed nominee Susan Crawford handily won a seat on the state Supreme Court, defeating Republican-backed nominee Brad Schimel by 10 percentage points in a state Trump won just five months ago.
All 72 counties in the state swung toward Democrats, with Crawford flipping 10 counties Trump won in November.
The results should send a shiver down the spines of GOP Reps. Bryan Steil and Derrick Van Orden. Van Orden barely won reelection in 2024, while Steil won by 11 points. But if these swings toward Democrats hold next November, both men could be in serious jeopardy of losing their seats.
In fact, Van Orden seemed almost resigned to that after Crawford’s win, claiming his seat would be redistricted now that the court remained in liberal hands.
“Being a member of Congress is not my identity,” Van Orden told Politico. “So if through all these crazy machinations I don’t get reelected because far-leftists on the court decide to redistrict and make it nearly impossible for me to get reelected—I can accept that without any malice or bitterness.”
Wisconsin’s Supreme Court race hinged not only on key issues—including abortion and voting rights—but also on Musk and his attempt to buy a seat on the court, spending $25 million on the race and handing out million-dollar checks to a handful of voters.
Signs supporting Judge Susan Crawford, voting and election officials adorn the front yard of a home on South Sixteenth Street on Election Day, April 1, 2025, in Milwaukee.
Democrats ran ads tying Schimel to Musk, whose popularity has plummeted as his crusade to make cuts to the government has led to chaos and destruction. Republicans have already faced backlash at town halls, with voters demanding that their GOP representatives stop Musk from decimating the government. But Tuesday’s result in Wisconsin shows that running an election off that message really did resonate with voters, giving Democrats concrete proof that running against Musk’s cuts to the government could be the roadmap to success next November.
Meanwhile, in Florida, Democrats may not have won the two special elections to replace two former Republican representatives—embattled national security adviser Mike Waltz and alleged sex pest Matt Gaetz. However, Republican nominees in both districts severely underperformed. In November, Trump carried the districts by at least 30 points, but on Tuesday, the Republican nominees saw that margin cut in half.
Much of the attention in Florida was in the 6th District, where GOP nominee Randy Fine was trashed by fellow Republicans for running a crappy campaign. That includes Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, who trashed Fine before Tuesday’s results came in, saying that if he underperformed, it was a referendum only on Fine, not on Trump.
“This is a rejection of a specific candidate amongst some voters who either choose not to vote, maybe even vote third party. I don’t know how many Republicans would cross over and vote for a lunatic Democrat,” DeSantis said.
Conservative state Supreme Court candidate Brad Schimel, the loser, makes his concession speech to a crowd on April 1, 2025, in Pewaukee, Wisconsin.
But Republicans did arguably worse in the heavily Republican 1st District. In November, Trump won the district by 37 points, but on Tuesday, GOP nominee Jimmy Patronis beat Democratic nominee Gay Valimont by less than 15 points. Gaetz, who previously held the seat, defeated Valimont by 32 points in November, making Tuesday’s results a massive swing away from the GOP.
Valimont even flipped Escambia County, a feat no Democrat has pulled off in decades. Escambia County is home to many military and federal workers, another sign that Trump and Musk's cuts to the federal government could be a major problem for the GOP next November. In 2024, Trump won the country by 20 points.
Ultimately, the fact that Republicans saw that big of an underperformance in safe seats should be a terrifying prospect for the GOP. There are many districts that Trump carried by less than 15 points which now could be in play in the midterms.
Tuesday’s results also make it clear why Trump pulled New York Rep. Elise Stefanik's nomination to serve as ambassador to the United Nations. Her district, which she won by 24 points in November, could have slipped away from Republicans in a special election.
“The [Republican] party has to worry about the position they’ll be in with voters in Virginia and New Jersey, and then looking down the road, where they’ll be going into the midterms,” said Charles Franklin, director of the Marquette University Law School Poll, told Politico. “It’s not an auspicious start, coupled with the accumulating polling data about how unpopular Trump’s most prominent policies, tariffs, are.”
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