New data released Wednesday shows that President Donald Trump's idiotic trade policy is sending the economy off the cliff.
The nation’s real gross domestic product shrank 0.3% in the first three months of the year, according to data released Wednesday by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. That’s down precipitously from the 2.4% growth in the final three months of 2024, when Joe Biden was still president.
While there is no official definition of a recession, a common rule of thumb is two consecutive quarters of decline in a country’s real GDP, according to the International Monetary Fund. In other words, the U.S. is halfway there.
The economy shrank even more than economists expected. That’s in large part because companies stocked up on imported goods before Trump's tariffs would go into effect, according to Betsey Stevenson, a onetime member of former President Barack Obama's Council of Economic Advisers.
"There is no doubt the trade war was having a huge effect on the data and the reality in the first quarter," Jason Furman, an economics professor at Harvard University, wrote in a post on X.
Meanwhile, the payroll company ADP also released its monthly private-sector jobs report, finding that private-sector employment increased by just 62,000 jobs—far short of the 115,000 jobs that economists expected to have been created.
"Unease is the word of the day. Employers are trying to reconcile policy and consumer uncertainty with a run of mostly positive economic data," Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, said in a news release. "It can be difficult to make hiring decisions in such an environment."
The troubling economic data once again sent the stock market reeling, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average falling more than 600 points shortly after it opened, though it has rebounded somewhat. However, major companies like Nvidia, Apple, and Disney have analyst calls scheduled for Wednesday, which could send those stocks lower.
Trucks enter into the United States from Ontario, Canada, across the Ambassador Bridge on Feb. 3 in Detroit.
And this is just the start of the negative impacts Trump trade war is expected to have.
Big-box stores like Target, Walmart, and Home Depot have warned Trump that tariffs could lead to shortages and skyrocketing inflation.
Meanwhile, some companies are planning layoffs due to the expected decline in purchasing. UPS, for example, plans to slash 20,000 jobs because they expect shipments from Amazon, its biggest customer, to fall thanks to tariffs spiking prices.
Of course, Trump is taking no responsibility for his own actions.
In a Truth Social post early on Wednesday, Trump ridiculously blamed former President Joe Biden for the stock market collapse.
“This is Biden’s Stock Market, not Trump’s,” the deluded con man wrote in a Truth Social post. “I didn’t take over until January 20th. Tariffs will soon start kicking in, and companies are starting to move into the USA in record numbers. Our Country will boom, but we have to get rid of the Biden “Overhang.” This will take a while, has NOTHING TO DO WITH TARIFFS, only that he left us with bad numbers, but when the boom begins, it will be like no other. BE PATIENT!!!”
But no matter how much lying Trump has done about tariffs, voters are not buying it. Polling shows they strongly disapprove of Trump’s handling of the economy, and loathe his tariffs.
And a Navigator Research survey released Wednesday shows that Trump’s own voters are starting to regret their decision. According to that poll, 12% of Republicans who don’t identify as part of the MAGA movement regret their vote for Trump, while an additional 31% of non-MAGA Republicans don’t regret their vote but are disappointed in Trump’s actions in his first 100 days in office.
“With the economy, we were probably expecting a little more leniency with him bringing things down like he promised he was going to help with the economy and promised he was going to help disabled vets, and help this and help other people and help homeless people and help … and he’s not holding any of those,” an independent woman in Pennsylvania told Navigator Research.
But Trump says he has no regrets over his economically destructive policies. In an interview that aired Tuesday night on ABC News, he said he’s doing everything he campaigned on.
“Even some people who voted for you are saying, 'I didn't sign up for this.' So how do you answer those concerns?” ABC News’ Terry Moran asked Trump.
“Well, they did sign up for it, actually,” Trump replied, adding about his tariffs, “This is what I campaigned on. I said that we’ve been abused by other countries at levels that nobody’s ever seen before. We were losing $3 to $5 billion a day on trade.”
Ultimately, America fucked around, and now we’re finding out.
Thank you to the Daily Kos community who continues to fight so hard with Daily Kos. Your reader support means everything. We will continue to have you covered and keep you informed, so please donate just $3 to help support the work we do.
