The weird and winding saga of President Donald Trump’s United States and Ukraine has taken a new twist, as the two countries finally signed the resource-sharing agreement that exploded an Oval Office meeting in February.
But this is a much different agreement than the one scuttled earlier. In fact, by all early indications, the Trump administration caved on almost all of the agreement’s contentious points.
The meeting between the two countries in February was much more contentious.
On X, Ukraine’s Minister of Economy Yulia Svyrydenko has been detailing what the agreement, which creates the United States–Ukraine Reconstruction Investment Fund, actually entails.
The big topline Trump cave was on using Ukrainian mineral wealth to reimburse the U.S. for aid given during the war. If that demand wasn’t insulting enough, Trump grossly inflated the aid, claiming $350 billion rendered, when the reality was $182 billion (and most of that stayed in the U.S., paying American manufacturers for weapons replenishments).
“The Agreement includes no provisions regarding any Ukrainian debt obligations to the United States, wrote Svyrydenko. “Ukraine will contribute 50% of state budget revenues from NEW rent on NEW licenses for NEW areas. Ukraine may also make additional contributions beyond this baseline if it chooses. This is cooperation designed to last for decades.”
Note the stress on “new,” as Trump originally demanded access to all existing resource leases. Thankfully, he caved on that idiocy.
“The Fund will then invest in extraction projects for critical materials, oil, and gas,” she continued “as well as in related infrastructure and processing. Specific investment projects will be selected jointly by Ukraine and the US. Importantly, the Fund may invest exclusively in Ukraine.”
The money stays in Ukraine, as it should.
“We expect that for the first 10 years, Fund profits and revenues will not be distributed, but instead reinvested into Ukraine—into new projects or reconstruction,” she continued. “These terms will be subject to further discussion.”
So the U.S. government won’t see a dime for at least 10 years, and she acknowledges what everyone knows—that this can all be renegotiated when the next (sane) administration takes power. But, the agreement does give American companies "preferential access” to develop new extraction sites.
Svyrydenko noted that this agreement does not infringe on Ukraine’s commitments to the European Union, so presumably this won’t infringe on the ability of European firms to also develop sites.
But there’s a difference between American companies profiting from extraction (as any company should for doing the work), and the U.S. government profiting from these ventures. Trump is convinced that this deal will pay the U.S. treasury back for American assistance, but I don’t see anything that would suggest that will ever happen. We’ll know more in the coming days as the deal text is released to the public.
“We have shaped an agreement that provides mutually beneficial conditions for both countries,” Svyrydenko wrote. “The US affirms its commitment to long-term peace in Ukraine and acknowledges Ukraine’s contribution to global security—including its decision to give up nuclear weapons.”
In other words, “Heads, Ukraine wins, tails, Ukraine wins!” Ukraine gets to keep revenues for its reconstruction (as it damn well should), and in return, the U.S. gets to affirm its commitment to Ukraine. Great! Glad that was signed!
Other things Trump originally demanded that he didn’t get:
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A majority vote on the fund, despite Trump’s early demands that the U.S. get to make all final decisions. The agreement spells out equal representation.
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Disputes will be handled by “mutual consultation,” as opposed to the U.S. legal system as the Trump administration originally demanded.
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Trump wanted control of the gas pipeline carrying Russian gas through Ukraine. That didn’t happen.
Interestingly, while both sides are supposed to pay for the fund jointly with cash, Ukrainian Prime Minister Denys Shmyhal says, “The American side can also credit new military assistance for Ukraine as a contribution to this fund.”
Related |Trump wants $500B in mineral rights to help Ukraine. Give it to him
Trump is easy to play, so maybe the pro-Ukraine wing in the White House (which includes Secretary of State Marco Rubio) can convince him that Russia must be swept out of Ukraine in order to get access to those sweet, sweet billions in minerals. And wouldn’t it be cheaper, rather than pay the fund in cash, to simply give Ukraine the thousands of tanks and armored vehicles just sitting unused and decommissioned in American storage depots?
I wouldn’t count on that, of course, but what good is that agreement currently? Remember, it only applies to new licenses, and most of Ukraine’s mineral wealth is in Russian-occupied territory. That is literally the reason Russia invaded. If Trump really wants it, he’s gonna have to fight the Russians (via Ukraine) for it.
There was just one major Ukrainian demand that they didn’t get—American security guarantees. They’ll just have to wait until Democrats take the White House back in 2028 for that.
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