The massive legislation that would reauthorize President Donald Trump's tax cuts for the rich and fund his evil immigration agenda is in serious jeopardy—and not because of objections to the bill’s cuts to Medicaid.
Republican-led House committees this week have been releasing the text of Trump's "One Big, Beautiful Bill Act," which shows that the GOP plans to kick millions off of Medicaid, cut food stamps, rescind funds intended to combat climate change, and tax college and university endowments in a way that would jeopardize critical medical research as well as scholarships for students. However, those cuts alone won't pay for the legislation’s cost, which the nonprofit Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget says will add an "unprecedented" $5.8 trillion to the deficit over the next decade.
The U.S. Capitol, shown in March 2025
At the moment, though, the bill does not have the votes to pass. Multiple factions within the GOP are angry over different parts of the sweeping legislation.
At present, the biggest headache for House Speaker Mike Johnson is that a group of Republicans from blue states are big mad that the bill does not substantially increase the state and local tax deduction, known as SALT. The tax scam that Republicans passed in 2017, during Trump’s first administration, capped the SALT deduction at $10,000, which effectively amounted to a tax increase for taxpayers who had higher incomes and pay high property taxes.
The new bill would raise the SALT deduction cap to $30,000 but phase it out for taxpayers who earn more than $400,000—a figure some Republicans said was not good enough to earn their votes.
“The bill is dead effectively on the floor,” Republican Rep. Nick LaLota of New York told Politico, adding that House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith “insulted us with fake numbers” and demonstrated “bad faith in presenting a bill that … doesn’t even come close to earning our vote.”
Rep. Mike Lawler, Republican of New York, said that if the SALT cap is not lifted higher, he will also not vote for the legislation.
"As I have said repeatedly, I will not support any bill that does not adequately lift the cap on SALT. This bill as written fails to deliver and will not have my support," Lawler told NBC News. "I look forward to continuing to negotiate with leadership and the administration to provide real tax relief for my constituents."
Meanwhile, deficit hawks are mad that the bill doesn't cut more from Medicaid.
Republican Rep. Chip Roy of Texas
“I sure hope House & Senate leadership are coming up with a backup plan…. ….. because I’m not here to rack up an additional $20 trillion in debt over 10 years or to subsidize healthy, able-bodied adults, corrupt blue states, and monopoly hospital ceos…” Republican Rep. Chip Roy of Texas wrote in a post on X.
Even worse for Johnson is that Roy says no amount of pressure from him or even Dear Leader will get him to change his mind unless the bill includes more cuts to the social safety net.
“Regardless of the merits, if we object, we will be called grand-standers and that we must comply - by influencers and some elected officials,” Roy wrote in another X post. “I won’t care about that pressure, which means either the bill will be supportable or it won’t. … I remain open-minded because progress has been made based on our forceful efforts to force change. But we cannot continue down the path we’ve been going down - and we will need SIGNIFICANT additional changes to garner my support.”
And that makes Johnson’s job exceedingly difficult since appeasing the blue-state Republicans would make the bill cost more, which would lose the hard-liners. And cutting Medicaid by more, as Roy demands, would lose Republicans in vulnerable districts.
"I think the final product is going to be favorable to everybody," Johnson said last week, in what appeared to be more of an aspirational comment than a fact.
But it gets worse for Republicans: Even if the bill does get through the raucous House, it’s unclear if the legislation as written would pass the Senate.
Sen. Josh Hawley, Republican of Missouri, said the bill makes unacceptable cuts to Medicaid that he said would be “politically suicidal” for the GOP.
And Sens. Rand Paul of Kentucky and Ron Johnson of Wisconsin are mad that the bill adds to the deficit and raises the debt ceiling.
“I can’t support this bill as it’s currently being discussed and doubt that it will pass the Senate,” Johnson wrote in a Wall Street Journal editorial on Tuesday.
Of course, never underestimate the weakness of Republicans when Dear Leader asks them to do something, or issues one of his signature threats.
For now, though, the bill looks to be on seriously shaky ground. So contact your lawmakers and tell them to vote against this monstrosity.
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