Fridays, i like to highlight the group of Hope Springs from Field PAC’s [dated website] volunteers who had the highest turnout for the previous Saturday. Kind of a special recognition for the volunteers (even if readers are less interested in the state than other’s). I get it, but i think it’s important for maintaining the moral of volunteers who are giving of their time and doing the real work of making the Democratic party more relevant and visible to voters.
This week, that state was Arizona, despite the fact that Texas, Florida and Pennsylvania all have higher populations — and volunteer bases. Sure, Arizona is a unique state in this regard because we have volunteers who are worried about extreme heat warnings in the Summer, prime canvassing time elsewhere.
This was the case despite the fact we lose a couple of volunteers this time of year. They winter in Arizona but return home after Easter. But they’ll be back in the Fall (maybe).
We are knocking on doors in Arizona because there are 3 congressional districts where we think we can beat a MAGA Republican incumbent there to take back the House. Especially in this emerging electoral environment! That is our first and primary goal this year, returning Congress to sanity and Democrats to the majority there.
Even if the Senate is out of reach (which is debatable), Democrats only need a majority in one house of Congress to put a stop on president felon’s egregious policies. And that is driving volunteer turnout so early in this election cycle. “It’s one thing I can do to change the political winds here,” one volunteer said, laughing at his metaphor. But lots of people looking for a change.
In AZ-06 (once held by a Democrat), new Republican voters alone accounted for more than the ~11k margin between Juan Ciscomani and the Democrat. The 6th CD was the closest margin in Arizona for a U.S. House race, which was not called for a week.
We are also knocking on doors again in AZ-01, where incumbent Republican David Schweikert is perennially vulnerable. This district is highly dependent on population-growth. Last year. Hope Springs volunteers found that the Democrat was not well known among the voters we canvassed. Arizona primaries are late in the cycle, and this hurts non-incumbents. But, to be honest, the Phoenix area saw a lot of extreme heat interruptions to our canvassing schedule late in the Summer and we may have missed some movement here.
AZ-02 is our “reach” district in Arizona. It fell within the 10 percent margin that some people use to define competitive districts — but just barely. And we are canvassing here because we don’t want to win just a few GOP seats, we want to defeat as many MAGA reps as we can.
502 Hope Springs volunteers came out on Saturday in the 1st, 2nd and 6th CDs to knock on 36,495 doors. We talked to 2,919 voters and had in-depth conversations with 1,851 of them, guided by our Issues Questionnaire.
We’ve added one thing to our questionnaire: we are asking voters whether they approve of the administration’s cuts to federal programs and agencies. Given that we are talking to more unaffiliated voters this year, we are offering that as a way to screen MAGA-leaning voters that we talk to.
Other than that, the Issues Surveys aren’t really changing. We may modify them again, if necessary. Voters like to tell us what is important to them!
The #1 Issue in Arizona on Saturday was Inflation. Tariffs was second. Housing Concerns (about costs, especially Insurance costs) was third.
Hope Springs from Field PAC began knocking on doors again on March 1st. We target Democrats and unaffiliated voters with a systematic approach that reminds them not only that Democrats care, but Democrats are determined to deliver the best government possible to all Americans. The voters we talk to continue to tell us they come away more invested in governance and feel more favorably towards Democrats in general because of our approach.
Obviously, we rely on grassroots support, so if you support field/grassroots organizing, voter registration (and follow-up) and our efforts to protect our voters, we would certainly appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization
Hope Springs from Field understands that volunteer to voter personal interactions are critical. Knocking on doors has repeatedly been found to be the most successful tactic to get voters to cast a ballot and that is the goal of what we do.
As i mentioned above, we ask voters if they approve of the sudden and deep cuts in federal programs and agencies led by Elon Musk. 4% of the Arizona voters who responded said they viewed these cuts in a favorable light, 47% thought just the opposite — unprompted, some mentioned cuts to Social Security services as problematic. 9% of the voters we talked to had a favorable impression of the job Trump was doing, which has been steadily falling each week. Important to remember that we are knocking on more doors of unaffiliated voters than Democrats in these GOP-held districts. 44% of the voters we talked to this week disapproved. We won’t know for awhile (given the newness of the question) whether these two are correlated.
Given our emphasis on taking back the House, we are asking about voter views of their Members of Congress, not Senators, in Arizona. We aren’t differentiating between Members and Districts in these reports; 5% of voters expressed approval of the job their Member was doing on Saturday and 47% said they disapproved. 49% said they approved of the job Gov. Hobbs was doing; 5% said they disapproved.
Hope Springs volunteers registered 4 new voters and re-registered 36 voters, who mainly updated their addresses (or updated their voter registration to participate in the Active Early Voting List — the latter usually tends to skew the number higher).
In Arizona, 211 voters filled out Constituent Service Request forms. We sent completed CSRs to Democratic elected officials responsible for the requested functions, but if the appropriate office is held by a Republican, we still send it along. For Democrats, though, we encourage them to reach out immediately to the voter who filled out the Constituent Service Request forms and let them know they are working on the issue. This credit-taking is enormously valuable to the Democratic office-holder.
We knock on the doors of Democratic and Independent voters and use a voter-driven approach to guide them through the Issues Survey, the CSR and Incident Report. We record questions voters raise with a Q(uestion)-slip and record other relevant observations on an Observations form. Q-slips are sent to the relevant Democrat to respond to and Observations are entered into VAN. At every door, we leave a piece of “show the flag” lit, something that tells them we were there and hopefully reinforces the Democratic brand. The lit focuses on the things voters told us were important to them last fall, aiming to appeal to every voter.
But the main focus of our canvassing is the Issues Survey, asking voters for their input and concerns. Voter responses to the questionnaire are entered into VAN and made available to all Democratic candidates who use VAN in the state after the primary. Creating this kind of data isn’t done with a specific goal in mind but has the purpose of engaging voters and creating a dataset that any Democratic candidate can use in opposition to a Republican.
Hope Springs has targeted states that have competitive Senate races and/or Congressional Races in 2026. There is a lot of work to be done! Especially since we have had to expand the map this year.
By starting early, and aiming towards super-compliance with some really, really onerous new voter regulations, Hope Springs from Field seeks to undermine that strategy, while informing voters about the new laws and regulations aimed at them and helping them to check their current voter registration status, if they cannot access it online themselves.
Our biggest expense is Printing the Walk Lit that we leave at every door. We printed more than 720,000 pieces of Walk Lit last year for Arizona. Access to the Voter File is our second largest cost. But it is also a fixed cost. That won’t change as we raise and spend more money. Printing and mailing our our Post Cards to New Voters is our third cost and paying the fees for ActBlue is the smallest of our monthly costs.
Hope Springs is a seat-of-the-pants grassroots-driven operation. We don’t have employees but we realize that to formalize and professionalize this effort that will have to change eventually.
Hope Springs has been called “the most comprehensive, organized grassroots voter contact project out there right now. It is truly astonishing that it is grassroots-based!” Not sure why it is “astonishing,” but i probably have more faith in grassroots or self-organized efforts because of my experience with Barack Obama’s early days in 2007.
If you are able to support Hope Springs from Field’s efforts to protect Democratic voters, especially in minority communities, expand the electorate, and believe in grassroots efforts to increase voter participation and election protection, we would appreciate your support:
https://secure.actblue.com/donate/hopemobilization
If you would rather send a check, you can follow that link for our mailing address at the bottom of the page. Thank you for your support. This work depends upon you!
